2017 My Bariatric Solutions 300 Race Picks
NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Saturday April 8th, 1:48PM (EST) at Texas Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
Tomorrow afternoon we will get our first taste of racing on the newly repaved Texas Motor Speedway when the Xfinity Series drops the green flag for the My Bariatric Solutions 300. The new asphalt at Texas has already wreaked havoc this weekend especially for the Monster Energy Cup Series drivers. In Friday’s practice Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, Chase Elliott, and Erik Jones lost control of their cars. Elliott and Jones actually hit the wall pretty hard meaning they will resort to backup machines. However, Friday’s practices was just a glimpse surrounding the level of uncertainty on Texas’s new racing surface. Tomorrow we will get our first green flag action in what promises to be a wild and fun event. Take a look as we breakdown tomorrow’s race and provide our 2017 My Bariatric Solutions 300 race picks!
Typically when you have a new racing surface, it produces a tremendous amount of grip. So why did so many drivers have trouble throughout Friday’s practices? Well I believe we have somewhat of a perfect storm that are causing bothersome conditions. First outside of the new pavement, we also have a brand new configuration in turns 1 and 2 where the banking has been decreased. Therefore, drivers are having to adjust to the new layout. Secondly, GoodYear was not able to conduct any tire test at Texas before this weekend’s races. Usually when you have a new pavement, GoodYear tire test are needed to ensure the proper tire compound is delivered for the upcoming race. Because there was not test, GoodYear is using a rather hard tire which does not have a lot of grip.
Additionally yesterday’s activities at Texas were among the first the track has seen since the repaving completed meaning the track is very “green.” The good news is that as more rubbers gets laid down, the track conditions should get better. The bad news is that the lower downforce package is still going to cause lingering grip concerns. If you combine the conditions of a very fast race track, a hard tire, and low downforce then you are still going to get some wicked handling conditions that could potentially get away from drivers really fast. Therefore, the driver that wins either of these races this weekend is going to have to need a good car that stays in the track and they are going to have to drive a very good race in order to pick up the checkered flag.
For tomorrow’s race, we have a talented pool of Cup Series drivers including Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano, Austin Dillon, Ryan Blaney, Daniel Suarez, and Erik Jones who will all be in competition. I think those guys have a big advantage considering the potential difficulty that drivers will have with the handling on these machines behind the wheel. However, nobody really stood out as the clear favorite from Friday’s two practice sessions. I thought Erik Jones was perhaps the best of the group but that is just a mere opinion. All of the Cup guys have shown speed at some point this weekend. I just happened to think the #20 has been most consistent. Also, Jones has a great record at Texas on his resume as well. I know the track is much different in turns 1 and 2 but I still like Jones’ resume at this place which is the main reason I jumped on him early this week at +550 odds. The +550 number is the best odds Jones had this week and I will continue to stress the importance of getting early odds courtesy of 5 Dimes! to ensure you are getting the best odds each week.
Outside of Jones, you could literally make a case for several drivers. I personally think Joey Logano is the next biggest threat due to his driving talent and the strength the #22 has shown this season. However, I think everyone can expect Kevin Harvick and Ryan Blaney to run towards the front as well. It’s easy to say the Cup Series guys should dominate this race tomorrow considering that is exactly what they typically do in the Xfinity Series. Instead, I think you will see a few of the Xfinity Series ‘regulars’ get to the front tomorrow. I saw a lot of parity in lap times and I think the racing conditions will keep the chances for variety high. I have identified two sleepers that could be worthy in some H2H value via the likes of Ty Dillon and Cole Custer.
Both guys had a lot of speed on Friday and I was very impressed with the younger Dillon. The #3 team has had an atrocious start to the year but they have some serious speed to turn things around tomorrow if they can keep the tires on the car while staying out of trouble. Along with Ty Dillon, I was also surprised with Cole Custer’s consistency with solid lap times. I don’t typically consider Custer a 1.5 mile driver as his strengths are typically on the shorter/flatter surfaces. Ironically though his best finish this season was on Atlanta’s rugged surface that was difficult for drivers with ill handling conditions. While the grip levels will be completely different tomorrow at Texas, the actual handling conditions could be somewhat similar. Therefore, I have Custer on my radar as well for lower tier matchups if the odds are right.
2017 My Bariatric Solutions 300 Race Picks
Erik Jones +550 (1.25 units)
Ryan Blaney +700 (1.25 units)
Two Team Parlay
Joey Logano +160 wins My Bariatric Solutions 300
Slot 2 – Open for O’Reilly Auto Parts 500
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD
Ty Dillon -145 over Daniel Hemric
Slot 2 – Open for O’Reilly Auto Parts 500
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD
H2H Matchups
William Byron -125 over Justin Allgaier (2 units) *early forums play
