2017 Bank of America 500 Race Predictions
NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday October 8th, 1:10PM (EST) at Charlotte Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
The first race in the Round of 12 is scheduled to kick off this afternoon at Charlotte Motor Speedway with the running of the Bank of America 500. When the race takes place? Well that answer is subject for debate. Rain has been all around the Charlotte region this weekend. Rain was responsible for cancelling both of Saturday’s practices for the Cup Series and it also delayed the Xfinity Series race by 6 hours. The good news is that the radar does not look overly intimidating so this race should take place at some point today. However with 2 practices cancelled and limited on-track activities, our biggest issue may be what to expect when the green flag waves. Take a look as we preview today’s race and provide our best 2017 Bank of America 500 race predictions!
I always say that practice speeds are often over rated and I typically refer to single lap speeds when making that argument. So I do not want to sound like a hypocrite for stating that not having practices has hurt our expectations. However without seeing any on-track activity in the sense of race trim that is the exact situation that has unfolded heading into today’s race. So what can we truly expect? Well with the return of the 1.5 mile tracks, we have to expect the Toyota speed will resurface. In fact, Joe Gibbs Racing drivers took 3 of the top 4 qualifying spots on Friday. Denny Hamlin won the pole, Matt Kenseth qualified 2nd, and Kyle Busch qualified 4th as he seeks his 3rd straight victory.
Last week, Jimmie Johnson verbally stated that the Hendrick Motorsports cars were gaining ground on the Toyotas in terms of overall speed. Johnson’s comments seemed to be validated from the fact that Johnson and teammate Chase Elliott were two of the best cars last week at Dover. However, I still want to see Hendrick Motorsports cars prove they have the same speed on the 1.5 mile tracks because these cookie cutter layouts have been where Toyota’s true dominance has shown throughout the season. Johnson won this race a year ago and owns the most wins all-time at Charlotte Motor Speedway. Therefore if you believe the Hendrick Motorsports cars have regained form, Johnson becomes an enticing option with great odds based on his lackluster qualifying effort on Friday. For me personally, I need to see more.
Without any practice time on Saturday, I am not going to believe that there has been a shift in power from what we have seen all year. On the 1.5 mile tracks specifically, Martin Truex Jr and Kyle Busch have been incredible. Truex has scored 4 wins and has only finished outside the top 10 once on the 1.5 mile layouts. Meanwhile, Busch has posted two runner-up finishes but does have the All-Star win to his credit back in May at Charlotte. If you consider the #18 team’s current form coming on the heels of back to back wins, it would be extremely hard to count his chances out. Now I will admit that Busch’s overall history at Charlotte has not been nearly as strong as some of the other 1.5 mile tracks. Therefore it is a battle of current form vs. overall track history to consider.
Obviously if we are going to talk about Truex and Rowdy, then Kyle Larson’s name needs to be mentioned as a part of the “Big 3.” Larson has been the only driver that has proved that he can challenge Busch and Truex this season with 4 victories. The only problem is that none of Larson’s wins have come on the 1.5 mile surfaces. However, I would not discourage Larson’s chances today. I actually like Larson for two reasons. The first reason is despite being winless on the 1.5 mile surfaces, Larson has still been strong. In fact, the #42 has captured 4 runner-up finishes this year on the 1.5 mile surfaces. So do you think that team is due? Lastly, if teams are having to guess with setups today that could play right into the hand of the #42 team. Give me the best driver in the sport when everyone is worrying about setups and I will take my chances!
If you look outside the normal Toyota drivers that should impact today’s race, it is still a big guessing game considering the fact that we have not seen any practice speeds. One driver that I believe will sneak into contention is Kevin Harvick. The #4 team has been rock solid in recent weeks and I do believe the Fords are gaining speed as a group as well. You can also refer to Brad Keselowski’s recent emergence as a sign that the Fords have potentially turned the corner. For Harvick, he has been the best of the group in terms of consistency and he also has a great track record at Charlotte with 3 victories throughout his career. If you need more convincing, Harvick ranks 3rd behind Truex and Busch in terms of average finish on the 1.5 mile tracks this season. He has not finished outside the top 10 at a 1.5 mile layout since Las Vegas in March and has 3 top 5 finishes during that stretch as well.
For the rest of the field, I am going to withhold from making any bold predictions because honestly I am not that confident. I believe today’s will be very unpredictable due to the fact that both practices on Saturday were cancelled, teams will have to guess with setup combinations, and track conditions will be completely different than what we are accustomed to at Charlotte. Therefore, I would approach today’s race with a low risk strategy. Even if you want to ride the favorites like Truex and Busch, the odds are extremely low. Therefore even from an odds standpoint, we are forced into a low risk situation making the most sense.
2017 Bank of America 500 Race Predictions
Kevin Harvick +700 ( 1 unit)
Brad Keselowski +1200 (1 unit)
Two Team Parlay
Martin Truex Jr/Kyle Larson +230 wins Bank of America 500
Jamie McMurray +125 over Kurt Busch
Risking 1.5 units to win: +960
H2H Matchups
Kevin Harvick -140 over Jimmie Johnson (2 units)
