2017 Auto Club 400 Race Picks
NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday March 26th, 3:46PM (EST) at Auto Club Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
I warned everyone earlier this week that Auto Club Speedway had the ingredients to produce one of the most exciting races of the year on Sunday and that is exactly what I am expecting when the green flag waves tomorrow in the Auto Club 400. Just throughout practices this weekend, we have seen some of the best drivers in the Cup Series struggle with handling due to Fontana’s lack of grip on their 20 year old racing surface. So far this weekend Kyle Busch, Jimmie Johnson, Kevin Harvick, Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott have all had troubles in practice. If the best drivers in the sport are struggling in practice conditions, what will happen in race conditions with 40 drivers battling for every inch of real estate? Find out our thoughts as we prepare for an exciting Sunday in Fontana and provide our 2017 Auto Club 400 race picks!
To recap the practice troubles that I alluded to above, Jimmie Johnson wrecked in practice on Friday and went to a backup car. The #48 team actually never made it past tech inspections to qualify the car so the 6 time Fontana winner will start from the back. On Saturday things got even crazier when Kevin Harvick hit the wall in the first practice. Then in final practice Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott brushed the wall before Kyle Busch spun the #18 car in the closing minutes. Fortunately, none of those drivers will need to go to backup cars as their teams were able to make repairs. However the troubles seen in practices this week, speak volumes for the difficulty these drivers are having at Auto Club Speedway on top of this extreme grip deficient racetrack.
If you checked out my Auto Club 400 Early Predictions preview earlier this week, I jumped on a few drivers that I felt would excel under these racing conditions by taking Chase Elliott (+1150), Kyle Busch (+850), and Kyle Larson (+950) shortly after opening odds were released. Hopefully you jumped on those drivers as well because Larson won the pole for Sunday’s race, Elliott was arguably the best in Saturday’s practices, and well Kyle Busch looked solid before the spin at the end of practice. As a result, you will likely not find any better odds on any of those guys heading into tomorrow’s race which highlights the importance of capitalizing on opening odds. If you want the earliest odds, get signed up with 5 Dimes! to ensure you are getting the best odds each week.
While we feel confident in some of our early selections and even come away with a big win earlier today in the Xfinity Series race at Auto Club Speedway, tomorrow’s race still has the ingredients to be very unpredictable. Several drivers got into the wall in practices and drivers really struggled to keep the cars underneath them. Add in the fact that lap speeds fell off about 1.5 seconds over the course of 10-15 laps, therefore drivers have a large margin of error and it opens up the possibility for pit road strategy by the crew chiefs as well. So there is going to be a lot of variables to work through as we attempt to put together another profitable lineup.
Luckily are early race picks and H2H matchups look great so we just need to build around those plays. Judging by practices, I feel like some of your usual suspects are going to be tough again. I feel like Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott are going to be guys to watch every week under this new package and I will keep repeating myself until proven wrong. I actually felt like the #24 was among the best in practices behind Martin Truex Jr. Truex has a lousy Auto Club Speedway resume with a 20.13 average finishing position in 16 starts. However, I would point out that he has raced better every where since last season and his dominant run at Las Vegas proved that this team will win races again this year. Truex and rookie teammate Erik Jones were really strong in both practices so I think you can slide Jones into some fantasy or H2H matchups. Still, Truex was the best of the group with the fastest 5, 10, and 15 lap averages and I think he is the sharp play going into Sunday.
Some of the other guys that looked solid to no surprise included Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano, Jimmie Johnson, and I would even throw Matt Kenseth into that group. Despite damage to the #4 car, Harvick looked really good in race trim. Logano is a guy that will have to start from the back because they failed to make it through qualifying inspections on Friday but appears to have a really solid ride along with Johnson. Meanwhile, Matt Kenseth is a sleeper type guy that I also mentioned earlier this week after his impressive run at Atlanta on a surface that is very similar. Kenseth is one of the best drivers in the series at preserving tires and I think the #20 holds some H2H value going into Sunday.
If you are looking for some lower tier drivers that could bring value in either H2H matchups or fantasy lineups, then I would suggest the likes of Kasey Kahne, Clint Bowyer, and Jamie McMurray in the intermediate list of drivers. One of the reasons that Kyle Larson is performing so well this year is because of the speed out of the Chip Ganassi cars. As a result, McMurray has been showing speed especially on the ovals with top 10 finishes at both Atlanta and Las Vegas. Kasey Kahne was another driver that was impressive at Atlanta and has shown consistent speed throughout the weekend. Lastly, Clint Bowyer is a guy that I have marked down that could really have a good day on Sunday. Bowyer’s driving style is beneficial for this type of track and I like the speed the #14 team has shown. So keep those guys on your radar for those H2H/fantasy purposes on Sunday.
2017 Auto Club 400 Race Picks
*More picks to be posted before race time
Kyle Busch +850 (1.25 units): 3 time winner, won 2 of the last 3, team was off a little in practice but they are still close
Kyle Larson +950 (1.25 units): best play of the week, starting on pole, 3 straight runner-up finishes this season, won Saturday’s Xfinity Series race as well
Martin Truex Jr +950 (1.25 units): fastest 10 lap average in final practice, Las Vegas winner, looks to be very strong
Chase Elliot +1150 (1 unit): really strong in practices all week, 2nd best 10 lap average in final practice, 6th place finish last year as a rookie
H2H Matchups and Props
Kyle Larson -140 over Dale Earnhardt Jr (3 units) *early forums play
Erik Jones -125 over Daniel Suarez (3 units) * early forums play
Martin Truex Jr -105 over Joey Logano (2 units)
Erik Jones +900 finishes Top 3 (.5 unit)
Erik Jones +310 wins Group C (Blaney, Newman, Bowyer, Suarez)
