2017 Auto Club 400 Early Predictions

2017 Auto Club 400 Early Predictions
NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday March 26th, 3:44PM (EST) at Auto Club Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

The Monster Energy Cup Series will conclude their west coast swing this weekend at Auto Club Speedway with the running of the Auto Club 400. Last week, Ryan Newman delivered a huge upset win after gambling with tire strategy at the end of the Camping World 500. The gamble paid off for the #31 team but delivered a crushing blow to our bets that had Kyle Busch and Kyle Larson winning the event. Both Busch and Larson were dominate during the latter stages of the race at Phoenix but the luck did not fall our way. However, we are ready to bounce back this week in what promises to be an exciting race at Auto Club Speedway. More importantly we are ready to jump on a few early drivers, while the odds are favorable, that we believe will be in contention for the win on Sunday. Take a look as we give a preview of this Sunday’s racing at Auto Club Speedway and provide our 2017 Auto Club 400 early predictions!

Let’s go ahead and get one discussion out of the way. Tire wear and tire management will be on everyone’s mind this week from the drivers and crew chiefs. Auto Club Speedway opened at the same time Atlanta Motor Speedway received it’s last repave. Everyone should remember how critical the tire wear was at Atlanta with more than 3 seconds of falloff in lap times from the beginning to end of green flag runs between pit cycles. We also should remember how awesome the racing action was on the track as drivers fought through the tire wear and grip issues through this low downforce racing package. The racing action was so impressive that Atlanta announced they were reconsidering repaving track. This week we should see a similar byproduct at Auto Club Speedway. Though the lap times will not fall off quite as severely as they did at Atlanta, it will still be a considerable amount of fall off in the tires which should generate good racing. It should also produce a good bit of pit road strategy since Auto Club Speedway is a 2 mile race track meaning teams can short pit and perform strategy calls while possibly staying on the lead lap. Therefore, there should be a quality mix of things taking place this Sunday to keep everyone entertained.

The good news is that we have already seen similar racing like this at Atlanta. We know guys like Kevin Harvick and Matt Kenseth are excellent when tire management comes into play. Harvick dominated at Atlanta but was busted for speeding on pit road on the last pit stop which ultimately kept him out of victory lane. However, the #4 car was easily the best car in the field and never showed the fall off in lap times that the other drivers were experiencing. Matt Kenseth never had the speed that Harvick and some of the other drivers had throughout the weekend at Atlanta. However, Kenseth kept battling and closed strong over the last 150 miles to bring home a respectable 3rd place finish. Obviously I like Harvick this week considering his run at Atlanta and also his performance at Auto Club Speedway in recent years. Harvick has 1 victory and 4 top 5 finishes in the last 6 races at Auto Club Speedway. He has also finished runner-up in each of the last two races. I will also have Kenseth on my radar as a driver to watch throughout practices. The #20 team has not shown winning speed yet this season but he may still be a valuable play in H2H matchups or fantasy lineups by the time Sunday arrives.

Outside of Harvick, only two other names come to mind that should be at the forefront of everyone’s lineups this week. It is the same two drivers that were battling for the win in the late stages of last week’s race at Phoenix. I am talking about Kyle Busch and Kyle Larson. Kyle Busch has been great at Auto Club Speedway with two wins in his last 5 starts and 4 finishes inside the Top 3 during that stretch. It is also worth noting that Busch seems to have a little bit of a chip on his shoulder since his scuffle with Joey Logano at Las Vegas. I know that is not a betting angle that anyone wants to consider. However, we have seen Kyle Busch get very streaky throughout his career and this is a great opportunity for him to capture a win after it got away from this last week. Meanwhile, Kyle Larson has just proved that this new lower downforce package is tailored just for him. Larson, Chase Elliott, and Brad Keselowski have been incredible under this new package and I have made that comment several times over the last few weeks. Larson has posted 3 straight runner-up finishes and 4 runner-up finishes in the last 5 races going back to Homestead last year. He is built for this package, the Chip Ganassi cars have speed, and he is also built for Auto Club Speedway because the racing surface causes grip and handling issues. Therefore, Larson is my #1 driver heading into the weekend before teams unload their cars. Kyle Busch and Chase Elliott are both in the same boat. They have pretty decent odds that will likely lessen the closer we get to Sunday. Therefore, I think you have to jump on them now or risk getting a bad number on race day.

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2017 Auto Club 400 Early Predictions

Kyle Busch +850 (1.25 units)
Kyle Larson +950 (1.25 units)
Chase Elliott +1150 (1 unit)