2017 Aspen Dental 150 Race Predictions
NASCAR Camping World Truck Series Betting Preview
Wednesday July 19th, 9:30PM (EST) at Eldora Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
One of the most exciting races of the year will take place tonight when the Camping World Truck Series returns to dirt racing at Eldora Speedway in the Aspen Dental 150. Over the last few years, this race has become one of the fan favorites and possibly the most prestigious event that is not on the Cup Series schedule. This race attracts all types of drivers from the Cup Series, to the Truck Series regulars, and the well-known respected dirt specialists. Tonight we embrace all driving talents as we take a step back to NASCAR’s roots as we prepare for exciting dirt track action and provide our 2017 Aspen Dental 150 race predictions!
Any time Eldora comes around, one of the biggest questions that everyone ask is “who has the best dirt track experience in this race?” Often we look for the drivers with rich dirt backgrounds in this race because let’s face it this is a unique style of racing that is completely different from the asphalt. Therefore, when you look through the entry list and see well known respected dirt track talents like Ken Schrader, Rico Abreu, and Bobby Pierce then it is easy to say those guys have the “advantage.” However, that has not been the case when looking at the history of the Truck Series at Eldora.
This race has provided an array of talents, over the last 4 years of its existence, from the top driver in the Cup Series in last year’s winner Kyle Larson to some of the most well-known dirt track racers in modern history like Scott Bloomquist. However, dirt track experience and dirt track racing backgrounds are not always a prerequisite for winning this event. Sure this type of driving is a bit different and requires a unique skillset. However if you look at the 4 winners at Eldora in Austin Dillon, Darrell Wallace Jr, Christopher Bell, and Kyle Larson; then the case can easily be made that they were the best drivers in the field on those nights regardless of their backgrounds. Therefore, I don’t think we should overly exaggerate the importance of dirt experience with our predictions but rather just make sure we have money on the best drivers!
Now I don’t want anyone to mistake what I am saying, I believe dirt track experience is obviously an advantage in this race but I don’t believe that you need to prioritize your lineup based off that experience. Despite tons of dirt track experience, I do not personally see guys like Ken Schrader, Rico Abreu, or Stewart Friesen winning this event. Sure they may run well, but running well and winning are two totally different things. Friesen was fastest in Tuesday’s first practice and he proved he had speed in race conditions in this race last year before he caused an 8 car wreck that ended his night. I think both Friesen and Caleb Holman are guys to watch from a speed standpoint that have the potential to run towards the front.
However, the guys that I think are positioned to win this event are the talents of Christopher Bell and Bobby Pierce. Bell has been the best driver in the Truck Series all season and he won this race in 2015. Not to mention, Bell has dirt track experience so he literally has everything that you look for in a winner. Pierce is not a Truck Series regular but he has made his presence felt in this Eldora race in each of the last two years. He is a great driving talent and posted the best 10 lap average yet again in final practice last night. Together, Bell and Pierce should be everyone’s top 2 guys heading into tonight’s race.
With that being said, this dirt format is still difficult to conquer even for the fastest guys. You have short heat races with starting positions determined by a random draw that can have a big impact on where you start which can have a big impact based on the difficulty in passing. So even though Bell and Pierce are my clear favorites, don’t let that stop you from taking gambles on other solid driving talents. I personally liked Chase Briscoe and Ty Dillon before yesterday’s sessions began. Dillon, the only Cup Series driver in the field, looked pretty solid in practices and is trying to follow in the footsteps of older brother Austin who won the inaugural Truck Series event at Eldora in 2013. Meanwhile Briscoe disappointed to some degree in practices by getting into the outside wall causing significant damage. The #29 team will have to go to a backup tonight which is never a good sign. I still would not rule out Briscoe’s chances completely but I would have liked to seen better results from Tuesday’s practices as well.
If you are looking for potential long shots that could pay off, I would also throw out names like John Hunter Nemechek, Noah Gragson, and Ben Rhodes as potential dark horses. I am sure there are 1-2 guys that I may be missing as dirt sleepers. I don’t pretend to know everyone’s background but I have a pretty solid foundation nevertheless. But among the outsiders, I think Nemechek and Rhodes are two solid driving talents that have raced at Eldora the last few years. Neither driver has done great in past races but I think their talent is starting to blossom especially Nemechek who already has 2 wins this season. For Gragson, he does not have any dirt track experience but the #18 looked really strong in both sessions on Tuesday. Practice speeds are not always an indicator of race speed. However, Gragson has recently tested a dirt modified in preparation for this week’s race and early signs indicate that testing has paid off.
2017 Aspen Dental 150 Race Predictions
*More picks to come closer to race time
Ty Dillon +650 (1.25 units)
Chase Briscoe +900 (1.25 units)
Noah Gragson +2250 (.5 units)
H2H Matchups
Bobby Pierce -130 over Rico Abreu (2 units)
