2017 Apache Warrior 400 Race Predictions

2017 Apache Warrior 400 Race Predictions
NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday October 1st, 2:15PM (EST) at Dover International Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

The final race in the opening round of the Chase will take place tomorrow when the Monster Energy Cup Series unleashes 40 cars on the Monster Mile in the Apache Warrior 400 at Dover International Speedway. With just one race remaining before the Round of 12, drivers like Kasey Kahne, Kurt Busch, Austin Dillon, and Ryan Newman need to race their way into the next round. Who will secure their spot into the Round of 12? Who will be able to tame the Monster Mile? Take a look as we provide our thoughts and provide our 2017 Apache Warrior 400 race predictions!

Back in June, we nailed a parlay winner courtesy of Jimmie Johnson scoring his record extending 11th victory at Dover. The victory was Johnson’s 3rd on the season through the halfway mark. However since that victory, Johnson and the #48 team has struggled immensely. So bad that Johnson has failed to crack the Top 5 in 11 straight races. Johnson’s best finish since that victory earlier this year was an 8th place finish marking one of the poorest performance streaks in his career in terms of Top 5 finishes. Even two races into the Chase, Johnson has still struggled and everyone knows that the #48 is usually the time this team shines. Instead, the team has failed to perform but there is hope that tomorrow’s return to the Monster Mile will get the 7 time champion back on track.

Luckily for Johnson, this is the perfect place to end their subpar streak. Before the win back in June, the #48 team was in a similar skid where they had not cracked the Top 5 in several races. Not only does the trends fall in line with where the #48 team was back in June but all of Hendrick Motorsports cars in the Chase showed speed in practices earlier today. Johnson, Elliott, and Kahne all finished in the top 8 on the speed charts in final practice. Not to mention, Dale Jr had one of his better practices of the season on Saturday as well. Elliott posted the fastest lap in Happy Hour and Johnson was close behind in 2nd. Elliott was even the 2nd fastest car in terms of 10 lap averages in the final session as well. Therefore it appears that the Hendrick Motorsports cars have some speed and that is noteworthy because they have not shown much speed in recent weeks.

Of course I know more than anyone that Martin Truex Jr and Kyle Busch have dominated the 2nd half of the season. The #18 and #78 teams have produced the fastest cars at the track on a weekly basis for months now. The speed or so called advantage from the Toyota teams has been undeniable. One of the myths that I have seen talked about is the fact that the Toyota “speed” has been most potent at the 1.5 mile tracks. I do not think that is necessarily the case. Toyota drivers have been extremely strong everywhere dominating the last several weeks at a variety of tracks including Bristol, Darlington, Richmond, Chicagoland, and against last week at New Hampshire. Therefore, Toyotas and their drivers have proven to be best everywhere and not just the 1.5 mile tracks.

I think some people will believe that Toyotas may not be as strong when they notice that Hendrick Motorsports and some of the Fords finished towards the top of the speed charts in practices. I just do not want to steer anyone into believing that myth. Back at Bristol, Toyota teams dominated by taking the top 4 spots. As many know, Bristol has a lot of similarities to Dover in the fact both tracks are concrete and have similar banking which creates similarities in setups. Therefore based on current form, I believe you have to consider Martin Truex, Kyle Busch, and Denny Hamlin legitimate threats again tomorrow just as we have seen nearly every week. If you are looking for my thoughts on those 3 drivers in particular, I would go Busch, Hamlin, and then Truex in that order.

The reason I believe that we saw speed out of the Hendrick Motorsports car is because they simply race well at Dover. Johnson is the best to ever drive on the Monster Mile and Elliott has finished in the Top 5 in each of his 3 career races. So do not get caught up believing the speed factor has changed. Those guys just know how to get around the Monster Mile and I believe both have to be given serious consideration tomorrow. I am personally excited for Chase’s chances to score his first win in the Chase, no pun intended. I thought the #24 looked really stout in final practice and if they are that strong when the green flag waves tomorrow then Elliott will be a factor.

Back through the rest of the field, I am not going to spend a ton of time talking about other drivers. I think the aforementioned drivers are the cream of the crop. However, Chip Ganassi cars looked pretty solid meaning Kyle Larson’s value is raised. Larson is the only driver that has been able to challenge Busch and Truex during the 2nd half of the season. I believe Larson is one of the overall best drivers in NASCAR and quite possibly the best driver on pure talent. With two prior runner-up finishes on the Monster Mile, Larson is a tough driver to ignore.

I was not necessarily impressed with the Team Penske drivers nor the affiliated team of Ryan Blaney. I thought those cars were pretty average in terms of speed. Kevin Harvick showed a pulse in the final session by posting the 3rd fastest time in the session. Still, Dover has not been exactly a safe haven for “Happy.” Despite a win in that dominate 2015 season, Harvick holds a measly 15th place average finish in 33 career starts. Therefore, I am not sold on Harvick’s chances to win but he may hold some H2H value given the right situations. Another driver that I feel like holds some serious H2H value is rookie Daniel Suarez. Suarez scored a win on the Monster Mile in the Xfinity Series last year and he finished 6th in his first start back in June. After a solid pair of sessions on Saturday, I would fire up Suarez in most fantasy or H2H situations.

2017 Apache Warrior 400 Race Predictions

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Matt Kenseth +1050 (1 unit)
Jimmie Johnson +1150 (1 unit)
Chase Elliott +1200 (1 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Ryan Blaney +125 wins Drive Sober 200
Kyle Busch +345 wins Apache Warrior 400
Risking 1.25 units to win: +1125

H2H Matchups and Props

Chase Elliott +110 over Kevin Harvick (2 units)
Ryan Newman +125 over Dale Earnhardt Jr (2 units)
Daniel Suarez -140 over Clint Bowyer (2 units)