2017 American Ethanol E15 250 Race Predictions
NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Saturday June 24th, 8:46PM (EST) at Iowa Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
NASCAR’s Xfinity Series will go racing tonight at Iowa Speedway when the green flag waves for the American Ethanol E15 250. For the first time this season, tonight’s field will not have any drivers from the Monster Energy Cup Series. Obviously this is the first time all season that the Xfinity and Cup Series schedules have forked on the same weekend and the Cup Series drivers are preparing for Sunday’s Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma. However the good news is that we should see several drivers have an opportunity to score their first victory of the season when the green flag waves later tonight. Therefore, we take this time to discuss the drivers that could possibly capitalize on this opportunity and end up in victory lane as we provide our 2017 American Ethanol E15 250 race predictions!
Last night the Camping World Truck Series put on an exciting race at Iowa Speedway highlighted by John Hunter Nemechek’s late race 4 tire call that propelled him to his 2nd straight victory. Even though a few teams tried to gamble with 2 tires and even no tires calls last night, I would expect that tires will be even more important to the Xfinity Series cars for tonight’s American Ethanol E15 250. There have not been any true tire “wear” issues this week but fall off in laps times have been significant over the course of a green flag runs giving fresh tires a big advantage in terms of speed. Therefore, expect teams to elect 4 tires with every opportunity and there to be less strategy calls than what we saw Friday night which had big impacts on the outcome of that event.
The big question heading into tonight’s race is who will step up in the absence of the Cup Series drivers? Justin Allgaier and Sam Hornish Jr are the two drivers that have emerged as the popular favorites. Despite this being Hornish’s first and only scheduled race of the year, he has shown tremendous speed thus far this weekend behind the #22 machine. Normally it would be unfathomable to pick a driver to win that has not had any races under his belt all season throughout any of NASCAR’s top series. However if you remember Hornish did the same thing last year in this race when he drove the #22 to victory lane. Therefore, Hornish has proven himself in this situation before. More importantly Hornish has looked really strong in terms of lap times throughout practices and I would also point out that the #22 team has been great in recent weeks in terms of speed perhaps even better than the JGR cars. Therefore, I really like Hornish’s chances for the repeat.
Outside of Hornish, Justin Allgaier is another driver that has emerged as a popular favorite. Outside of Ryan Reed’s victory at Daytona, Allgaier is the only other Xfinity Series regular to score a victory this season. Allgaier’s victory came at Phoenix in dominating fashion and he was also very strong at Richmond. Both of those tracks hold strong similarities to Iowa which we would expect to set up nicely for the #7 team. With that being said, Allgaier was not overly impressive in practices on Friday. He was outside of the top 10 in fast laps and all the way down to 7th on the board in 10 lap averages. The good news is that the track conditions will be much different when the green flag waves under the lights this evening and the even better news to consider is that Allgaier always races better than his practice speeds indicates. Therefore, I am still fairly optimistic about the #7 team’s chances tonight despite what some may consider a pair of sub-par sessions on Friday.
If you look throughout the rest of the field, there are a wide array of options to consider. Both Christopher Bell and Kyle Benjamin are in action this weekend in JGR machines which are always fast. Both Bell and Benjamin have been impressive in their few starts despite limited experience in the Xfinity Series. Bell rallied from a lap 1 wreck to a 4th place finish in his first start of the year at Charlotte. Benjamin has started from the front row in both of his starts this year and led 28 laps in his last start at Pocono. Both drivers have been very fast throughout practices this weekend and while I think it would considered a mile “upset” for either driver to win; I still like Bell to a degree based off his experience and success at Iowa in the Truck Series. I would not rule out either driver’s chances because they both have the speed to contend for the victory. I just personally give the edge to Bell considering his history.
A few more drivers that likely be popular choices surround Elliott Sadler and William Byron as the final legs of the JR Motorsports brigade. Despite practice speeds, poor qualifying efforts, and other struggles; Sadler continues to produce quality finishes each week. In fact, Sadler has finished in the top 10 in 11 of the last 12 races and in the top 7 in 6 of the last 7 races. Sadler also has 4 top 5 finishes in the last 7 races and he continues to find ways to be upfront at the end of these races just like we saw last week at Michigan. Teammate William Byron has also been running well in recent weeks and literally came just inches short of his first victory at Michigan last week. Like Sadler, Byron has done a good job of putting himself in position for wins and strong finishes lately. If that continues, one of those drivers are going to pull out a win in the near future.
While I believe Sadler and Byron will likely get a victory before the season ends, I do not personally like their chances tonight. Surely both drivers are among the top echelon in terms of raw talent in this field that lacks Cup Series skill. However, neither Sadler nor Byron has appeared close enough in terms of speed to contend for the victory in my humble opinion. Instead, if you want to consider a dark horse for tonight’s race then take notice of Cole Custer in the #00 machine. Custer has been running well in recent weeks with 4 straight top 10 finishes and I really liked the way that car looked in both practices on Friday. For those that do not know, Custer has always excelled on these relatively flat short tracks and Iowa suits his driving style. So if you are looking for a dark horse or sleeper in H2H match-ups, I think Custer will be your best option.
2017 American Ethanol E15 250 Race Predictions
Sam Hornish Jr +450 (1.5 units)
Cole Custer +1000 (1 unit)
Christopher Bell +1050 (1.25 units): early forums play courtesy of 5Dimes
H2H Matchups
Justin Allgaier +105 over Elliott Sadler (3 units)
Ben Kennedy -145 over Scott Lagasse Jr (2 units)
