2017 Alsco 300 Race Predictions

2017 Alsco 300 Race Predictions
NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Friday July 7th, 8:15PM (EST) at Kentucky Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

Racing action returns tonight at Kentucky Speedway as the Xfinity Series gets their turn at racing under the lights in the Alsco 300. Over the last two weeks, we have witnessed the continued emergence of rookie William Byron who captured wins at both Iowa and Daytona. Byron also scored a runner-up showing, in a photo finish, to Denny Hamlin back at Michigan 3 weeks ago to add credibility to his recent momentum. With each impressive performance, Byron is making a case that he could be ready for the opportunity to make the jump to the Cup Series at the end of the season. Tonight we keep an eye on Byron along with an extremely stacked Xfinity Series lineup at Kentucky for what promises to be another exciting night of racing. Take a look at our 2017 Alsco 300 race predictions!

If you happened to watch last night’s Truck Series race, then surely you saw how much “draft” and momentum affected drivers’ speed with every lap. Kentucky’s recent repave provides a rather smooth ride around it’s 1.5 mile surface and the Trucks punch a big hole in the air which causes a greater influence on drafting. However, do not expect the same type of racing when the Xfinity Series cars roll onto Kentucky Speedway later this evening. Tonight’s race will be more in-tune with speed and clean air. Track position will be very important because it is going to be difficult to run down the leaders in dirty air. Therefore expect pit road strategy to play a key role as well because tires have not shown much fall off in lap times.

On Thursday, both of the Xfinity Series’ scheduled practices were eliminated due to rain. However, drivers and teams were able to get on track this morning for the only session prior to tonight’s green flag. In terms of practice, Kyle Busch paced the field with the fastest lap ahead of Ryan Blaney. Blaney did post the best 10 lap average but only a handful of cars ran 10 consecutive laps. Therefore, I am not sure if we learned too much from this morning’s practice from what we previously expected. Going into this weekend, I think everyone knew that Kyle Busch would be the biggest threat in this race and his top speed in practice this morning simply confirmed that theory. Busch has been excellent at Kentucky with two wins each in the CWTS, Xfinity, and Cup Series. Busch is always a threat in the Xfinity Series but he is especially dangerous at Kentucky where he has finished inside the top 5 in his last 6 Xfinity Series starts. Therefore, I am not going to spend much time making the case for Busch as it should be self evident. Instead, let’s talk about the drivers that are the biggest threats to top Busch in tonight’s 300 mile event.

I believe any of the Cup Series drivers can beat Busch tonight. It is not hard to make a case for Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano, Kevin Harvick, or Erik Jones. I do not have much faith in the full-time Xfinity Series driver’s chances of winning tonight considering the talent that is participating from the Cup Series. Tonight’s entry list is one of the most stacked Xfinity Series cards we have seen in recent weeks Among the Cup Series guys, I am particularly favoring the Penske guys between Blaney and Logano. I simply believe their cars have been better in recent weeks. Not to mention, Logano and Kentucky have a special bond. Kentucky was the site of Logano’s first win the Xfinity Series, in just his 3rd start, at 18 years old. Logano later went on to win the next two races in the Xfinity Series at Kentucky in 2009-2010. Logano has only made 1 start at Kentucky since those 3 wins but I think most people would agree that tonight’s race presents another golden opportunity considering the way the #22 has been performing. Teammate Blaney is also in a good position in an equally strong #12 machine. In fact, the #12 car has won in 2 of it’s 3 starts this year including most recently with Blaney behind the wheel at Charlotte.

I personally jumped on Blaney at the time of openers this week because he had the best odds among the top 2-3 favorites and has two prior Kentucky wins to his credit. However, I also think Erik Jones and Kevin Harvick deserve respect as well. Harvick has been great this year in the #41 car with finishes of 4th, 3rd, and 2nd in his 3 starts which have all been on 1.5 mile tracks. I personally do not believe the #41 has the raw speed that the JGR or Penske cars have which is a credit to Harvick’s pure talent behind the wheel. For some reason, Harvick has flown under the radar in these Xfinity Series races that he has driven this year. I think part of the fact is the equipment that he is in but also a large part of it is because he does not typically practice that well in terms of single lap speed. Harvick is one of those drivers that always focuses on race trim in practice sessions and that is why his finishes are typically strong despite practices/qualifying results. I think Harvick is in the same type of scenario again going into this evening’s race and should be a strong consideration especially if his odds become more favorable closer to the green flag.

Lastly in terms of the Cup Series guys, I also took Erik Jones early to go with my Ryan Blaney race pick at openers which you can always find in our forums. I liked Jones because he had really solid odds at 11.5 to 1, he dominated this race last September before a late race wreck, and I simply think his chances are solid considering the odds. It is worth noting that the #20 car also looked pretty strong in practices but my reasoning was mostly from an odds standpoint. Outside of the Cup Series guys, I don’t believe we will see any winners from the Xfinity Series regulars. I was not particularly impressed with anyone from this morning’s practice session. However, I do expect that William Byron will continue to run well and I would also expect Elliott Sadler to run well based on his track history. Sadler actually won the last race at Kentucky and he never impresses with practice speeds. So perhaps Byron and Sadler can flirt their way up towards the top 5 before this race winds down.

2017 Alsco 300 Race Predictions

Get in on today’s betting action with Bovada!

Ryan Blaney +650 (1.5 units)
Kevin Harvick +850 (1 unit)
Erik Jones +1150 (1 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Joey Logano +160 over Kyle Busch
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD

H2H Matchups

Erik Jones -110 over William Byron (3 units)
Tyler Reddick -145 over Matt Tift (2 units)
Elliott Sadler -135 over Justin Allgaier (2 units)