2017 Alabama 500 Race Predictions

2017 Alabama 500 Race Predictions
NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday October 15th, 2:20PM (EST) at Talladega Superspeedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

In his final start at Talladega, Dale Earnhardt Jr will lead the field to the green flag Sunday at the start of the Alabama 500. Earnhardt and Talladega have been synonymous over the years when it comes to restrictor plate racing. Junior owns 6 victories at Talladega which is the most among active drivers and 2nd to only one driver in NASCAR history, his father and 7-time champion Dale Earnhardt. Tomorrow a legacy will end at Talladega when Dale Jr crosses the finish line for the final time. We take this time to discuss if Junior can put together one last magical ride and discuss other potential winners as we present our 2017 Alabama 500 race predictions!

I think everyone realizes that Earnhardt has had a pretty awful farewell season. He has posted just 1 top 5 finish all season and has failed to be competitive on most weekends. However if there is one track where Junior could turn back the hands in time, Talladega is the place. Before the concussion shortened season in 2016, Earnhardt won at Talladega in the spring of 2015 and was just inches away from taking the lead in the fall race before the caution flag curtailed his chances for the sweep. Since then, Earnhardt has had just two starts at Talladega which has not lived up to expectations. However, the #88 car has looked really strong and the Hendrick cars in general believe that have fixed some of the problems that have troubled their cars (Snapping loose on corner exit) in recent years at the plate tracks giving Earnhardt one final opportunity.

I am probably in the minority, considering Earnhardt’s 2017 performance results, but I believe he can get the job done on Sunday. Now at 10-1 odds and one of the overall favorites, I am not sure if the reward outweighs the risk. All I am saying is I am not in the group of people that believes Earnhardt does not have a chance. I believe he will run up front but I just wish his odds were more advantageous to his 2017 performances rather than his historical Talladega resume which is the reason he is less than 10-1 currently. So for anyone wanting to back the #88 team for Sunday in hopes to cash a winning ticket while watching a tale of poetic justice unfold before our eyes, be my guest. I believe the #88 will give one last hellacious effort and be a factor throughout the afternoon.

As always with plate racing, we must talk about risk and reward. The reason I will not back Earnhardt is because the risk far outweighs the reward. Every time these plate races roll around, I preach the importance of ROI and value with restrictor plate betting lineups. I will follow that same strategy going into Sunday’s 500 in the 2nd race of the Round of 12. So with that being said, let’s discuss the drivers that I believe have to be discussed regardless of odds and then the drivers that have significant “value” that could be potentially used on anyone’s lineup.

Among the drivers that I believe deserve everyone’s attention include the likes of Joey Logano, Ricky Stenhouse Jr, and Brad Keselowski. Outside of Earnhardt, those 3 drivers are the only drivers with multiple wins since 2015. Keselowski and Logano have been terrific at Talladega. Keselowski already has 4 wins in just 17 starts which is tied for 4th all-time in victories at Talladega. It could be easily argued that right now in the present day of the Cup Series that nobody is better than Keselowski at restrictor plate racing. I would also put Joey Logano into that discussion as well as the best at plate racing in the Cup Series. The only other notable mention I would possibly put in that conversation is Denny Hamlin.

For Logano, I really like the value he brings to lineups at his current odds. Logano has fell off of everyone’s radar since tanking the 2nd half of the season. However, he is still great at plate racing and I do not believe the troubles Team Penske has had this season has been noticeable with their plate racing program. For those reasons, I think Logano is one of those obvious choices most people will not think about until the green flag drops. After that, everyone will be shaking their heads to why that did not make such an obvious pick. Again, just my prediction but I can easily see that situation unfolding because I have not seen any evidence to question Team Penske’s plate racing program.

Lastly, we have to thrown Ricky Stenhouse’s name into the mix among the favorites tomorrow simply for the fact that he has had the best season of any driver at the plate races. Stenhouse scored his first Cup Series win at Talladega in the spring and then backed it up with a victory in the July race at Daytona. I hit Stenhouse with a half unit play at 45-1 back in the spring race at Talladega but failed to have him on my lineup in the Coke Zero 400. I remember heading into the Daytona race in July, I was like no way lightening can strike twice for Stenhouse and the #17 team. This time around I am not going to make any assumptions again. I have always thought that Stenhouse was a great restrictor plate driver and he has made that notion undeniable in 2017. With confidence beaming at the plate races followed by a 5th place qualifying effort earlier today, Stenhouse is once again a viable option.

Obviously everyone can be considered at the plate tracks which is part of the reason plate racing is so popular. The draft is the ultimate equalizer when it comes to racing at NASCAR’s top level. So in theory I understand that anyone can win given the right circumstances. Heck look at the way Kurt Busch won the Daytona 500 in February. Halfway through the race, the elder Busch thought his car was awful. A few big wrecks later, Busch found himself in the right position in the closing laps and capitalized on the opportunity. Who knows what type of situation will unfold on Sunday and what types of opportunities will open.

I don’t have time to discuss every driver’s chances for a plate race when in reality everyone has potential. However a few guys that I like who have “value” in terms of odds can be found with the likes of Chase Elliott, Kevin Harvick, and Paul Menard. I know what you are thinking, what Paul Menard? Well in reality, Menard has the 4th best average finish at the plate races since 2015 behind only Kurt Busch, Kyle Busch, and Brad Keselowski. So at 66-1 odds, the better question is why not? As for long shots, throw Aric Almirola into the mix at 88-1 odds on the heels of finishes of 8th, 4th, and 4th in his last 3 plate races. For Elliott and Harvick, I like their plate racing skills and their odds are pretty decent as well. Harvick seems to always put his #4 machine in position for at least a chance at the end of these races.

Elliott on the other hand does not have the history to prove he is worth the gamble based on finishes but sometimes finishes do not tell the entire story. Elliott has done a really good job at the plate races especially this year but the finishes just have not followed. More importantly, he has shown the ability to be very aggressive when out front which is the key to fighting off challenges in the closing laps. Dale Earnhardt Jr has proven to be one of the best out in front of the pack but Elliott has shown some similar tendencies in his limited opportunities. Therefore at 16-1 odds, Elliott has very good value for a driver that in my opinion could easily be listed as a top 5 favorite.

2017 Alabama 500 Race Predictions

Take advantage of the best restrictor plate odds with 5Dimes

Joey Logano +1350 (.75 unit)
Kevin Harvick +1350 (.75 unit)
Chase Elliott +1650 (.75 unit)
Kurt Busch +2000 (.75 unit)
Paul Menard +6600 (.5 unit)
Aric Almirola +8800 (.5 unit)
David Ragan +25000 (.25 unit)