2017 AAA Texas 500 Race Predictions

2017 AAA Texas 500 Race Predictions
NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday November 5th, 2:16PM (EST) at Texas Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

Just 3 races remain in the 2017 NASCAR season and we are just two weeks away from crowning a champion at Homestead. Last week, Kyle Busch survived a wild finish at Martinsville to earn his ticket for a championship fight at Homestead. Today another opportunity presents itself when the green flag waves for the AAA Texas 500 at Texas Motor Speedway. Will another Chase competitor earn their championship bid to Homestead or should we be looking at guys outside the championship picture for today’s victory? Find out our thoughts as we provide our 2017 AAA Texas 500 race predictions!

I believe by now that everyone is aware of Martin Truex’s dominance on the 1.5 mile tracks this season. Truex has averaged a staggering 2.8 average finishing position on the 1.5 mile tracks this season which includes 6 victories. Just two weeks ago, Truex added his most recent victory of the season at Kansas to give him wins at the last 3 stops at the 1.5 mile tracks. As I mentioned in the Kansas preview, Truex’s record this year on the 1.5 mile tracks is truly incredible and his average finish is the 2nd best mark in NASCAR history behind Bobby Labonte’s 2.3 average finishing position on the 1.5 mile layouts back in 1999. Therefore you do not have to view practice speeds or debate heavily about the #78’s chances this afternoon. We have seen each week that this #78 car does not lose speed on the long runs and the car seemingly gets better as these races progress. Therefore, Truex is the clear favorite for today’s 500 mile event as he looks to continue dominance at the 1.5 mile tracks.

While the case for Truex is current form, a similar convincing case could be made for Jimmie Johnson due to track history. When it comes to Texas, Jimmie Johnson has been nothing short of dominate. Johnson won the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 back in April this year which gave him his 6th Texas win in the last 10 races. The only problem with backing the #48 heading into today’s race is that the team has not been performing well. Do you want to hear something amazing? Since his win at Dover in early June, Johnson has posted just one top 5 finish in the last 20 races. That race was the 2nd Dover race when Johnson posted a 3rd place finish. Therefore this team has not exactly been competing on a “winning” level. I know the case could be made that Johnson was not exactly competing on a “winning” level before the 1st win at Texas in the spring considering he had just 1 top 10 finish in the first 6 races. Still, I have a hard time validating Johnson’s chances with his current form despite his incredible track record at Texas.

As I look throughout the rest of the field, names like Kyle Larson and Kyle Busch would be obvious choices based on season performance. However, I would quickly point out the fact that Larson has still yet to win on a 1.5 mile track this season. Larson has won 3 times on 2.0 mile ovals and on the .75 mile surface at Richmond but not on any of the 1.5 mile tracks. Obviously Larson has the talent to win anywhere and has several top 5 finishes on the 1.5 mile surfaces this year to indicate he is close. Meanwhile Kyle Busch has scored two Texas wins in recent years and is coming off a victory at Martinsville last week. Busch’s average finish over the last 10 races nearly mirrors Jimmie Johnson so he should be given the utmost consideration. Judging from practices, it appeared that Larson had one of the fastest cars because he posted the best 10 lap averages in both of Saturday’s practices. Still, both Busch and Larson should be considered strong threats this afternoon.

If we add in practices along with other handicapping measurables, then I believe names like Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin come into play. I have been making the case for Harvick for a few weeks now because that team is performing really well. They were dominate at Charlotte, which closely resembles Texas, but ended up finishing 3rd. They also led laps at Kansas two weeks ago before finishing 8th. I believe we could see another performance today where Harvick runs upfront. I don’t believe he has the “best” car but definitely one capable of staying in the mix.

Meanwhile, Denny Hamlin is a guy that I have targeted that I feel may fly under the radar. After last week’s controversial finish at Martinsville, Hamlin needs a little redemption. He has a pair of Texas wins on his resume coming from a sweep in 2010 and has looked really strong in practices. In fact, Hamlin has arguably performed as well as anyone from a consistency standpoint in recent weeks. The #11 has finished 4th, 6th, 5th, and 7th in the last 4 races. They have unloaded another fast Toyota this weekend and I he would be my darkhorse pick among the perceived “favorites” for today’s race.

If you want a bigger dark horse, then consider putting Erik Jones in your lineup. Jones posted the 2nd best 10 lap average in Happy Hour on Saturday and he really likes Texas Motor Speedway. The rookie picked up his 3rd Xfinity Series win in just 6 starts last night at Texas. He beat Ryan Blaney, Kyle Larson, and others in route to that victory. After a 4th place qualifying effort and really strong practices, I think Jones can be considered a real threat to earn his first Cup Series victory. I think Jones is also a strong play in H2H or fantasy situations.

Likewise you could probably throw names like Kurt Busch and Chase Elliott into the mix. Elliott will be starting from the 34th position after failing to earn a qualifying time on Friday. However, he has been the best of the Hendrick Motorsports cars in recent weeks and owns a very solid Texas resume that includes finishes of 5th, 4th, and 9th. For the elder Busch, he has stood out to me all weekend. He has posted times that have been on par with the main “favorites” around him and has really shown speed on the stopwatch. I know the #41 has been hard to predict this season but Saturday’s practices were the fastest that team has shown in months.

2017 AAA Texas 500 Race Predictions

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Denny Hamlin +900 (1.25 units)
Erik Jones +2000 (1 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Kevin Harvick/Kyle Larson +367 wins AAA Texas 500
Jimmie Johnson +130 over Ryan Blaney
Risking 1.25 units to win: +1215

Martin Truex Jr +295 wins AAA Texas 500
Dale Earnhardt Jr +155 over Daniel Suarez
Risking 1.25 units to win: +1135

H2H Matchups

Chase Elliott -110 over Brad Keselowski (2 units)
Landon Cassill -155 over Cole Whitt (2 units)
Kurt Busch -145 over Clint Bowyer (2 units)
Denny Hamlin +275 wins Group B (Blaney, Johnson, Keselowski, Kenseth) (1 unit)