2017 AAA 400 Drive for Autism Race Predictions

2017 AAA 400 Drive for Autism Race Predictions
NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday June 4th, 1:15PM (EST) at Dover International Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

On Sunday the Monster Energy Cup Series will unleash 40 cars onto The Monster Mile when the green flag waves for the AAA 400 Drive for Autism at Dover International Speedway. We have been profitable in both the Camping World Truck Series and Xfinity Series’ races this weekend at Dover as we continue to target a profitable weekend sweep. However, things will not come easy considering several different drivers have shown promising speed heading into tomorrow’s 400 mile race which should keep things interesting. Take a look as we preview Sunday’s racing at The Monster Mile and provide our 2017 AAA 400 Drive for Autism race predictions!

Earlier today at Dover, Kyle Larson scored his 8th career Xfinity Series win. Larson’s win was not very surprising but the tire issues that developed over the course of just 200 miles in the Xfinity Series was very shocking to say the least. For those that are not aware, the Xfinity and Cup Series teams are running the exact same GoodYear tires this weekend. In the OneMain Financial 200 earlier today, several drivers experienced tire issues due to excessive wear. The tire issues consistently came into the picture after about 50 laps of green flag racing and that is something that will be very concerning for Cup Series teams for Sunday’s 400 mile race.

It is nearly impossible to handicap around tire related issues because they are usually hit or miss. If anything, I would elect to choose drivers that have a more consistent or smooth driving style if you are debating between multiple options. Otherwise, you have to just hope that your drivers can avoid trouble. With that being said, my short list for Sunday’s AAA 400 includes Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Larson, Martin Truex Jr, and Matt Kenseth. Larson has probably been the best car in terms of overall “speed” throughout the weekend. He paced the field in the 1st practice on Friday and finished on top of the speed charts again in Happy Hour earlier this afternoon. If you add in Larson’s speed, with his 2017 momentum, and fact that he was runner-up in this race last year, then you have a pretty good indicator that he should be among the top favorites for Sunday’s win.

While I do not underestimate Larson’s speed, I am still a tad skeptical that he will win tomorrow’s race. The reason I am skeptical is because the car was really loose throughout practices and if that continues it will hurt the long run potential in the car especially if tire issues come into the picture. Unlike Larson, both Jimmie Johnson and Martin Truex Jr looked really good from a handling perspective. Both drivers appeared as if they were ready for a full 400 miles. Dover just happens to be both driver’s favorite track. Johnson has 10 wins at Dover which is the most all-time. Dover is also Martin Truex’s home track and the site of his first Cup Series victory back in 2007. Truex backed up the 2007 victory with a win at the Monster Mile last October in the most recent visit and he has a car that is capable of getting the job done again. Therefore, I really like the chances for both the #48 and #78 on Sunday.

Another driver that is on my short list is Matt Kenseth who is also the defending AAA 400 Drive for Autism winner. Kenseth is still a bit under the radar but has shown excellent speed throughout the weekend especially on longer runs. I really like Kenseth’s driving style for Dover he is so consistent and manages his equipment very well. I think that driving style is important for the potential tire issues that could be a factor on Sunday but it is even better for his long run potential which we saw in this race last season. If you consider most of the favorites are in the 6-1 range, Kenseth is one of your best options from an odds standpoint among the favorites.

If you are looking for other winning options, I would put Kyle Busch towards the top of all other drivers. It is fairly obvious that the JGR cars have hit on something in the last 2-3 weeks as they have found speed in all of their cars. Busch won the All-Star Race and finished 2nd in the Coca Cola 600. He won the pole for tomorrow’s race and had the best 10 lap average in final practice. I have always considered Busch a “streaky” driver and that seems to be the current trend. So the #18’s chances are as good as any for tomorrow’s event. For the rest of the field’s chances for the outright win, I think there is a pretty decent gap back to the rest of the competition. I believe Chase Elliott will move forward after a pair of solid practices and two 3rd place finishes last year at Dover. However, Elliott is a guy that interest me in H2H matchups more than he does for the win.

One thing that I would like to mention that has not been talked about from a mainstream standpoint is the struggles for both Stewart-Haas Racing and Team Penske. For some reason, Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano have really struggled in recent weeks. Keselowski showed some speed at Charlotte but was collected in an early wreck. Logano on the other hand spent two weeks in disarray at Charlotte through the All-Star Race into the Coca Cola 600. In fact, Logano has finished outside the top 20 in 3 straight races. The #22 also had a slow start again this week with a 26th place qualifying effort. However, the good news is that the team did hit on a few things in final practice. With some new found speed in the car, I think we could be at a turning point for the #22 team. Logano is one of the best pure drivers in the sport so it is very unlikely that he will struggle for long. For tomorrow, I actually like his recent poor finishes and poor starting spot for H2H reasons as I fully believe he will move forward at the drop of the green flag.

I am not quite sure why there has not been much talk about Stewart-Haas Racing’s struggles. One of my biggest fears entering the season was that the change over to Ford would hurt their teams in the short run. I think those fears were put to bed with Kurt Busch’s Daytona 500 win and strong runs early in the season from both Kevin Harvick and Clint Bowyer. The team has not been “bad” per say but it is pretty apparent that they are still lacking speed. Busch’s win at Daytona remains SHR’s only victory on the season. Even with Harvick’s solid runs, the #4 team has not shown “winning” speed compared to recent years and it is evident that all of the SHR car’s are lacking some overall speed. I don’t think SHR’s current struggles are too alarming but it is worth keeping track of as we move forward in the season.

2017 AAA 400 Drive for Autism Race Predictions

Get in on today’s betting action with Bovada!

Kyle Larson +700 (1.25 units): runner-up last year, been the fastest car since unloading Friday, should be strong again
Matt Kenseth +1150 (1.25 units): 3-time winner including this race last year, excellent speed on long run, starting 4th
Brad Keselowski +1350 (1 unit): 2012 winner, great value considering his Dover history, starting 8th

Two Team Parlay

Kyle Larson +145 wins OneMain Financial 200 (win)
Jimmie Johnson/Kyle Busch +215 wins AAA 400
Risking 1.5 units to win: +1007

H2H Matchups

Joey Logano -110 over Denny Hamlin (2 units)
Jamie McMurray -125 over Dale Earnhardt Jr (2 units)
Jimmie Johnson -130 over Brad Keselowski (2 units)
Joey Logano +600 finishes Top 3(.5 unit)