2016 Zippo 200 Race Predictions

2016 Zippo 200 Race Predictions
NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Sunday August 6th, 2:50PM (EST) at Watkins Glen International
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

The Xfinity Series will get their first taste of road course racing this afternoon when the green flag waves for the Zippo 200 at Watkins Glen International. With the Sprint Cup Series also camped out at Watkins Glen, we have numerous Sprint Cup stars that will be participating in today field including the likes of Kyle Busch, Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski, Kyle Larson, Paul Menard, and Trevor Bayne. So who has the best road course talent to shine today at the newly repaved surface at the Glen? Find out our thoughts and more as we provide our 2016 Zippo 200 race predictions!

Last year, Joey Logano held off Brad Keselowski in the closing laps to win the Zippo 200 in a Team Penske 1-2 finish. Logano actually went on to win the Sprint Cup Series race that Sunday when Kevin Harvick ran out of fuel coming to the checkered flag. Today both Logano and Keselowski will start in the same two positions where they finished last year after sweeping the front row in Friday’s qualifying. Both drivers are former Xfinity Series winners at the Glen and have a great opportunity for today’s victory.

Surprisingly, a Team Penske car has still not won this year which is rather shocking considering they have been just as dominant as the JGR cars over the last few years. We have documented their struggles on the ovals this year especially towards the beginning of the season. The team has been getting better especially with the #22 car and they are closing the gap on the JGR cars. Today will present a great opportunity to get Team Penske their first win because they have two great drivers behind the wheel of those cars and the driver can make up a lot of time around Watkins Glen’s nearly 2.5 mile layout. Therefore, expect both drivers to stay in contention this afternoon.

However, the guy that the Team Penske drivers will have to beat this afternoon is Kyle Busch in the #18 car. Busch has been incredible this season with 7 wins in just 11 starts. Today Busch is going for his 4th straight victory in the Xfinity Series which he has never been able to do before. Throughout the weekend’s practices, the #18 clearly looked like the best car in race trim despite a 5th place qualifying effort. So it will be interesting to see if the field gained some ground on the #18 or if that was just a product of single lap speed. Also consider the fact that Kyle Busch has never won at Watkins Glen in the Xfinity Series despite two wins on the Cup side. Either way, I do not think anyone would downplay Busch as the overall favorite for today’s event.

A few other drivers to keep your eyes on will be the other Sprint Cup Series guys in today’s field in Paul Menard and Kyle Larson. Experience has proven to be a big factor this weekend with the Sprint Cup Series drivers dominating the speed and qualifying charts. Despite a poor road course resume, Larson has looked very strong throughout the week. Larson was 2nd fastest in practice 2 and the fastest car in final practice on Friday. The downside to those impressive lap times is Larson’s road course resume. In the Xfinity Series, Larson has never led a lap at Watkins Glen in 3 prior starts and has never finished better than 15th. Of course looks can be deceiving because Larson was running 3rd last year when an axle broke in the car and blew an engine in 2013. Therefore, I do think the #42 can contend today if he can find a way to overcome his trend of misfortune at this track. Also, expect Paul Menard to hang around the front this afternoon. He showed some really solid speed throughout the week. While I do not believe he has a winning car, he should hang around the top 5 all afternoon.

As far as the rest of the field, I know Erik Jones and Daniel Suarez have been hot in the last several months with the help of those JGR Toyotas. However, both drivers have very little road course experience and they have only shown top 10 type speed so far this week. Guys like Darrell Wallace Jr and Ty Dillon have been even worse in terms of speed and race trim lap times so I would not encourage backing either of those guys in H2H actions. However both Trevor Bayne and Justin Allgaier have looked pretty strong throughout the week. If you can find either of those guys in mid-tier H2H matchups, I believe they will bring home winners for those matchups.

2016 Zippo 200 Race Predictions

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*More race predictions may be posted closer to race time

Brad Keselowski +500 (1.5 units): early forums pick, 2013 winner, starting 2nd
Kyle Larson +650 (1.25 units): one of the fastest cars throughout all practices, trying to shake off bad memories of the Glen, starting 3rd

Two Team Parlays

Joey Logano +295 wins Zippo 200
Team 2 – Open for Cheez-It 355
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD

Kyle Busch +145 wins Zippo 200
Team 2 – Open for Cheez-It 355
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD

H2H Matchups

Trevor Bayne -125 over Darrell Wallace Jr (3 units)
Erik Jones -130 over Daniel Suarez (2 units)