2016 US Cellular 250 Race Predictions

2016 US Cellular 250 Race Predictions
NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Saturday July 30th, 8:16PM (EST) at Iowa Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

Later tonight the Xfinity Series will make their return to Iowa Speedway for the running of the US Cellular 250. Last month, Sam Hornish Jr received a late invitation from Joe Gibbs Racing to race the #18 car at Iowa Speedway on Father’s Day Weekend. Hornish had not been in a racecar in any series up until that time but capitalized on the opportunity by dominating the race in route to victory. Today Hornish returns for another opportunity at a victory but this time he will be behind the wheel of the #2 car for Richard Childress Racing. Find out if we think Hornish can repeat and a few other drivers that could be poised for the victory as we provide our 2016 US Cellular 250 race predictions!

Hornish’s victory last month was one of the “feel good” stories of the season. The 36 year old driver was literally sitting at home just days before the race with no intentions on racing. Then a phone call from JGR would help put the former Sprint Cup Series driver back into a position to race in one of the best cars in the Xfinity Series and Hornish would later capitalize on the opportunity by leading 183 of the 250 laps in route to victory. Today Hornish will not be in the same equipment by way of those dominating JGR Toyotas. However, Hornish will be in equipment that can get the job done with Richard Childress Racing which he proved in practices on Friday by posting the fastest lap in the first session at Iowa.

For those that may be thinking that Hornish is not capable of winning this afternoon because he is not in a JGR Toyota, I would highly oppose. Iowa Speedway has been Hornish’s best track and he has posted finishes of 4th or better, including two wins, in his last 6 starts in the Xfinity Series at Iowa. If you add in the lack of Sprint Cup Series talent in today’s field, I think Hornish’s chances of repeating are fairly strong. The only Sprint Cup Series driver that will be participating in today’s race will be Brad Keselowski who will be flying in from Pocono late Saturday afternoon.

Obviously Keselowski will be a favorite as he typically is anytime he suits up in the Xfinity Series but he also has a pretty incredible Iowa resume to justify the favoritism. Keselowski is tied with Ricky Stenhouse Jr with 3 victories which are the most all-time in the Xfinity Series at Iowa. To make things even more impressive, Keselowski has never finished worse than 4th in any Xfinity Series start at Iowa. I know the regression of the #22 car downplays those stats to a degree and the fact that Keselowski did not get to practice in the car definitely hurts his chances. However if there is a place for the #22 team to turn things around and beat the JGR guys, then Iowa is the place with Keselowski behind the wheel.

Speaking of the JGR guys, both Erik Jones and Daniel Suarez looked really strong in Friday’s practices which has been the case all season. Both drivers posted the top 2 fastest 10 lap averages in Friday’s final session and will be receiving short odds to win tonight. Though Jones is obviously the more talented driver, I believe Suarez has the biggest upside for tonight’s event. Jones has never led a lap at Iowa in his prior 3 starts and he has not stood out with an overwhelming advantage in terms of speed at Iowa like he has at most tracks this season. Suarez on the other hand has led at least 40 laps in 2 of his 3 Iowa starts which includes a 4th place finish last month. Suarez has also never started outside of the front row in those 3 starts so I think the #19 has just as good of a chance to capture the victory this evening as his teammate does in the #20 machine.

As far as the remainder of the field is concerned, expect both Ty Dillon and Elliott Sadler to run well. Both drivers have impressive Iowa resumes and looked really solid in practices. On back in the pack, there will be a lot of part time guys that will be trying to cash in on quality runs. Josh Berry, Dakoda Armstrong, and Drew Herring will be names that will be trying to make the best of their opportunities this evening. I think tonight’s race will have a lot of action especially with so many inexperienced drivers in the field. I expect there to be several cautions meaning the battle on pit road and on restarts could be really important towards determining the winner!

2016 US Cellular 250 Race Predictions

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*More race predictions may be posted closer to race time

Daniel Suarez +450 (1.5 units): led minimum 40 laps in 2 of 3 races at Iowa, 2nd fastest 10 lap average on Friday, typically starts upfront
Sam Hornish Jr (1.25 units): June winner, two-time Iowa winner, 2nd fastest in final practice

Two Team Parlay

H2H Matchups

Blake Koch -175 over Ryan Sieg (3 units)
Ryan Reed -115 over Justin Marks (3 units)
Ty Dillon -115 over Justin Allgaier (2 units)
Daniel Suarez -135 over Brad Keselowski (2 units)