2016 Treatmyclot.com 300 Race Picks
NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Saturday March 19th, 4:16PM (EST) at Auto Club Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
NASCAR’s Xfinity Series will take center stage this afternoon at Auto Club Speedway with the running of the Treatmyclot.com 300. The major storyline entering today’s race revolves around the #18 of Kyle Busch. Rowdy has scored 3 straight Xfinity Series wins in recent weeks and when the green flag waves later today he will look to become just the 2nd driver in Xfinity Series history to score 4 consecutive wins. However guys like Erik Jones, Austin Dillon, Ryan Blaney, Daniel Suarez, and last year’s race winner Kevin Harvick are standing in the way. Take a look as we discuss our expectations for today’s 300 mile race and provide our 2016 Treatmyclot.com 300 race picks!
Today’s race will have a heavy focus on horsepower around Auto Club Speedway’s 2.0 mile surface. Tire fall off and grip will also be an issue over the speedway’s aged surface. However, overall horsepower is going be a big factor in the cars that we see towards the front of the field. Obviously that notion puts the JGR cars of Kyle Busch, Erik Jones, and Daniel Suarez towards the top of the contenders list. The JGR brigade has displayed a ton of power in recent weeks out of their cars and it would be hard to argue against the fact they have the best program in the series right now. Of course Kyle Busch has displayed JGR’s equipment strength with his undeniable talent behind the wheel in recent weeks. Busch has dominated the competition over the last 3 races leading 493 of the scheduled 563 laps. If you look at Rowdy’s Fontana resume, he has a series best 6 career wins which and has only finished outside the top 5 twice in his last 12 starts. Considering those facts, we could easily see the #18 at the front of the field for the majority of today’s race yet again.
The most likely contenders to stop Kyle’s run of dominance will likely be between Erik Jones and Kevin Harvick. Jones has been really fast over the last couple weeks including a 2nd place finish last week at Phoenix. Before that Jones piloted the #20 car to 3rd place finishes at both Atlanta and Las Vegas. Jones was 2nd fastest in consecutive 10 lap averages in final practice on Friday behind Busch. Therefore the teammates that finished 1-2 last Saturday could be the top two cars to beat again today. Kevin Harvick could also be a guy to break Busch’s winning streak and possibly breakup the JGR dominance. Harvick won this race last year in the same #88 car for JR Motorsports in a dominate fashion by leading 100 of the 150 laps. The #88 was not overly impressive in practice but they were solid nevertheless. However if you consider Harvick’s ability to strive on low grip race tracks and ability to conserve tires on long green runs, Auto Club Speedway is actually pretty ideal to his driving style.
Another guy to keep in mind for this afternoon’s race includes the driver of the #2 car in Austin Dillon. Dillon is on a wave of momentum after some really strong runs in recent weeks in the Sprint Cup Series and he actually won the pole for Sunday’s Auto Club 400. Dillon has had some struggled through the early part of 2016 in the Xfinity Series. If you remember, Dillon has a breakout 2015 campaign in the Xfinity Series that was highlighted by 4 victories. So far this year, the #2 team has struggled with a just 1 top 5 finish in Dillon’s 4 starts. However, the #2 car did jump to the top of the speed charts in final practice on Friday so it will be interesting to see if they have made some ground to get that team back into winning form.
For the purposes of H2H matchups and potential long shots, I would like to add a few more notes that mostly stem from Friday’s practice sessions. Kyle Larson looked really solid in the #42 car. Remember Auto Club Speedway was the site of Larson’s first Xfinity Series win back in 2014 and he has also impressed at this track on the Sprint Cup Series as well with a notable runner-up finish in 2014 as well. Other notes include the fact, Ryan Reed looked really solid in race trim. Ty Dillon struggled mightily with the handling on the #3 car. Brandon jones brushed the wall in final practice but the team was able to make repairs without having to resort to a backup car. Another guy that seemed to be pretty far off as well was the #6 car of Darrell Wallace Jr.
2016 Treatmyclot.com 300 Race Picks
Erik Jones +500 (1.5 units): been running very well, should be 2nd best option behind Busch, 2nd fastest 10 lap average in final practice
Kyle Larson +900 (1 unit): sleeper pick, 2014 winner, 3rd fastest in practice 1 and 5th fastest in final practice
Parlay
Kyle Busch -140 wins Treatmyclot.com 300
Slot 2 – Open for Auto Club 400
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD
H2H Matchups
Kyle Larson -170 (1 unit) over Ryan Blaney
Kevin Harvick +110 (1 unit) over Austin Dillon
