2016 ToyotaOwners 400 Race Predictions
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday April 24th, 1:14PM (EST) at Richmond International Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
The Sprint Cup Series will go racing at Richmond International Speedway later this afternoon with the running of the Toyota Owners 400. Headlining today’s race will be the return of Tony Stewart who will be making his first start of the season after recovering from an offseason ATV accident. Stewart had already announced that 2016 would be his final season and NASCAR granted “Smoke” a waiver to make the Chase if he can win a race and climb back into the Top 30 in points similar to what they did for Kyle Busch last year. Therefore as we look to keep an eye on Smoke’s return, we also take this time to provide a full preview of today’s race and provide our 2016 ToyotaOwners 400 race predictions!
On Friday rain interrupted activities at the track cutting out time in the first practice and totally washing out qualifying. As a result, today’s lineup was set by practice 1 speeds. The good news is that teams did get a chance for a full practice on Saturday and there is not any rain in today’s forecast. Therefore we should get to see a full 400 miles of action once the green flag drops shortly after 1:00pm EST. However, it may be tough to decipher a true favorite for today’s race given all the superstar names that have dominated the lap speeds thus far this weekend. Jimmie Johnson, Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, and Joey Logano have all looked strong from a practice standpoint. All of those drivers have wins previously at Richmond and Busch leads all active drivers with 4 victories.
I really thought the cars of Johnson, Busch, and Edwards looked the best from a practice standpoint. Busch’s 7.1 average finishing position in 21 career Richmond starts makes him a must start in the fantasy world. However, it is going to be hard to get value from betting odds by taking multiple favorites. Perhaps a parlay or two may be the way to go if you are going to take multiple drivers from that group. Kevin Harvick will start on the pole for today’s race after winning the first practice on Friday. Harvick is a 3-time winner at Phoenix which should not be surprising considering Richmond’s similarities to Phoenix where he has completely dominated. Harvick should be another guy with some enticing fantasy value with the chance to lead a lot of the early laps given the fact he will start from the pole.
Two guys that may be worth your betting consideration are Carl Edwards and Dale Earnhardt Jr. Edwards is currently listed at 10-1 and has been really impressive throughout the weekend. Last week’s Bristol winner has run really strong all season and has a 2013 Richmond victory on his resume. Edwards had the 4th fastest 10 lap average on Saturday and I believe could seriously challenge for a 2nd straight victory. Earnhardt Jr is getting twice the value of Edwards at 20-1 odds which is fairly generous considering the #88 has finished 2nd in each of the past 2 races. More importantly Richmond has been Junior’s best racetrack outside of the restrictor plate tracks of Daytona and Talladega. Earnhardt has 3 wins at Richmond and is running really well to get a shot at a 4th victory later this afternoon. The #88 was fast at the end of Happy Hour and Earnhardt also dominated the Xfinity Series race on Saturday which we have seen to help drivers on Sunday in recent weeks. Therefore at 20-1 odds, I believe the #88 has some serious value.
A few drivers that I like from a H2H perspective include Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson. Elliott was really impressive back in Phoenix with an 8th place finish. Elliott will be starting from the 23rd position today which helps his H2H value and he was right there with the leaders at the end of Happy Hour. Larson is another driver I am expecting to run pretty well. Larson had an extremely fast car last week at Bristol and his aggressive driving style could be beneficial for today’s race as well. The #42 was decent in practice but I expect to run better in the race which will increase his H2H value as well. Consider both drivers today for potential H2H and fantasy value.
2016 Toyota Owners 400 Race Predictions
Kyle Busch +575 (1.5 units): leads all Richmond drivers with 4 wins and best average finish position, looked to be among the best in final practice, expecting the #18 to be the car to beat
Carl Edwards +950 (1.5 units): 2013 winner, finished 2nd at Richmond and won last week at Bristol, 4th fastest 10 lap average in HH
Dale Earnhardt Jr +2000 (1 unit): 3-time Richmond winner, strong at the end of HH, starting 17th
Two Team Parlays
Kyle Busch +575 wins ToyotaOwners 400
Dale Earnhardt Jr +240 finishes Top 5
Risking .75 unit to win: +1646
Jimmie Johnson +450 wins ToyotaOwners 400
Austin Dillon +130 over Kasey Kahne
Risking .75 unit to win: +916
H2H Matchups
Carl Edwards +105 over Denny Hamlin (2 units)
Kyle Larson -105 over Ryan Newman (2 units)
Kurt Busch -140 over Martin Truex Jr (2 units)
Chase Elliott -140 over Jamie McMurray (2 units)
