2016 Toyota Save Mart 350 Race Predictions

2016 Toyota Save Mart 350 Race Predictions
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday June 26th, 3:19PM (EST) at Sonoma Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

After a week off, the Sprint Cup Series returns to action today with road course racing at Sonoma Raceway in the Toyota Save Mart 350. Today’s race marks the first road course action of the season and a unique opportunity for a few drivers, which may not normally contend for victories, to capture a win while earning a spot in the Chase. Guys like Jamie McMurray, AJ Allmendinger, Ryan Newman, Kasey Kahne, and others are all looking to take advantage of today’s opportunity at road course racing. Find out if we believe there will be any surprise winners and more as we provide our 2016 Toyota Save Mart 350 race predictions!

I think anytime that you mention Sonoma Raceway that you have to bring up the name “Busch.” In this case, I am referring to both Busch brothers as they have extremely impressive Sonoma Resumes. Kyle Busch already leads the Cup Series with 3 victories this season and he has a great opportunity to stretch that lead today. Busch is also one of two drivers with multiple Sonoma wins as he and Tony Stewart both have two Sonoma victories on their resume. Most recently Busch won the Toyota Save Mart 350 last year and with the strength of the Toyota’s apparent again he will have another great opportunity this afternoon.

Older brother Kurt Busch may have just one victory in Sonoma in 2011 but he has been very close to victories on several other trips to wine country. The elder Busch actually leads the series in several statistical categories such as average running position, driver rating, average green flag speed, laps inside the Top 15, and more. In fact in the last 5 races, Busch has 4 finishes of 4th or better including a runner-up finish to Kyle last year. Judging by Friday’s practices, I expect that both Busch’s will be the guys to beat once the green flag drops this afternoon.

The only other drivers that I would include in that top echelon are Martin Truex Jr and Dale Earnhardt Jr. Earnhardt had the best practices of his Sonoma career on Friday and it was very obvious that Greg Ives has unloaded a fast #88 car. Earnhardt does not have the best Sonoma resume despite some recent quality finishes in the last two years. Therefore, I am not sure if the #88 has what it takes to actually contend for the victory but he does have a very fast car. Truex does have a Sonoma win to his resume coming back in 2013 and he flexed his muscles again on Friday with the best 10 lap average in final practice. The Toyota’s have shown a lot of raw speed throughout the weekend and that is good news for the road course talent of Kyle Busch, Martin Truex, and I would even throw Carl Edwards name into the mix.

Of course raw speed, handing, and road course driving skills are just part of the equation of what it takes to get to victory lane. In these road course races, pit road strategy and gas mileage often comes into play because of the tracks enormous size. Therefore, teams that are able to capitalize off the best pit road strategy and gain track position could find their selves in the right position when the checkered flag waves. AJ Allmendinger and Carl Edwards will be starting on the front row. Both drivers have solid road course talent and should be able to hang around the front all afternoon so I would not count out either of those two cars.

Outside of the previously mentioned drivers, I am going to withhold any bold predictions for surprise winners. I honestly think this race is between just a few drivers barring any bizarre gas mileage or pit road strategy scenarios. However, I do believe guys like Ryan Newman and Clint Bowyer will race their way forward. I like both drivers in mid-low tier H2H matchups. Bowyer, despite being in less than stellar equipment, is excellent on the road courses and Newman typically finds ways to capture a quality finish. I would also keep the Chip Ganassi cars on your radar from a H2H perspective as they have also looked fairly solid thus far this weekend as well.

2016 Toyota Save Mart 350 Race Predictions

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Martin Truex Jr +850 (1.25 units): 2013 winner, shown a ton of speed throughout practices including best 10 lap average in final practice
Kyle Busch +900 (1.25 units): two-time Sonoma winner, 2nd best 10 lap average in final practice, should be among drivers to beat
Clint Bowyer +5000 (.5 unit): best average finishing position among active drivers, 2012 winner, great odds especially if strategy comes into play

Two Team Parlay

Kurt Busch +450 wins Toyota Save Mart 350
Casey Mears -110 over Danica Patrick
Risking 1.25 units to win: +1187

H2H Matchups and Props

Matt Kenseth +140 over Denny Hamlin (2 units)
Kyle Larson -140 over Brad Keselowski (2 units)
Jimmie Johnson -110 over AJ Allmendinger (2 units)
Ryan Newman -155 over Greg Biffle (2 units)
Dale Earnhardt Jr +280 wins Group C (Menard, Kahne, Elliott, and McMurray)
Dale Earnhardt Jr +315 finishes Top 5
Clint Bowyer +760 finishes Top 5
Ryan Newman +700 finishes Top 5