2016 Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 400 Race Predictions

2016 Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 400 Race Predictions
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday September 18th, 2:46PM (EST) at Chicagoland Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

The first race in the 2016 Chase for the Sprint Cup will take place tomorrow afternoon with the running of the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 400 at Chicagoland Speedway. Currently 16 drivers have an opportunity at the Sprint Cup Championship but that number will be cut to 12 after the next 3 races. While drivers may not be able to win the championship tomorrow, they could definitely lose it. We have seen in previous years that one disastrous race can end a driver’s hopes for a title. While we keep a close eye on how the championship drama will unfold, we take immediately aim at how things will unfold over 400 miles tomorrow at Chicagoland. Take a look as we provide our 2016 Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 400 race predictions!

Chicagoland is a rather peculiar venue because it is the only track, outside of the finale at Homestead, where the Sprint Cup Series has not already visited this year. The Cup Series only visits the Windy City once a year which can make things difficult to predict for tomorrow’s 400 mile event. Additionally the track itself has formed some unpredictability in character since opening back in 2001. The surface at Chicagoland has become very rigid with bumps and has developed an abrasive surface that is tough on tires. Drivers are consistently fighting the racetrack at Chicagoland and rest assured tires will be very important with each opportunity on Sunday. The good news is that those factors typically provide some great racing. Drivers have numerous grooves that can be run at Chicagoland and just as we have seen in the prior two races this week; it is very easy to see 3 and even 4 wide racing on restarts.

I cannot remember the last time a race at Chicagoland did not deliver great racing or excitement. Therefore, I am confident we should see fun racing when the green waves tomorrow. Another thing that I am confident in is the fact that we are going to see everyone’s “best” tomorrow. Not only do the drivers know that they must be at their best during the Chase but teams have brought their best cars and setups to the track as well. Throughout practices, we have seen competitive speeds by all of the Chase drivers even back to 16th place Jamie McMurray. I seriously think 10 different drivers have a legitimate shot of winning this race tomorrow because the field is so evenly matched from about the top 10 cars.

Denny Hamlin has been red hot in recent weeks and nobody would count out any of the JGR Toyotas including Martin Truex Jr. Meanwhile, Kyle Larson has been fantastic since breaking through with his first win at Michigan and in the weeks that have followed. Kevin Harvick has shown the speed that could set off another title run and Penske Racing has been in the ballpark as well. On Friday and Saturday, both Jimmie Johnson and Chase Elliott vaulted towards the top of the leaderboards as well. Elliott has put together one of the best rookie campaigns in recent memory but I think most would agree that the Hendrick Motorsports cars have been off from the other groups in terms of competing for victories. However, the HMS cars have had one of the best weekends of the season in terms of all their cars on the speed charts which only convolutes tomorrow’s expectations.

Surprisingly Chicagoland is just 1 of 4 tracks where the six-time champ Jimmie Johnson has never scored a win. Johnson has run well and actually leads all active drivers with 577 laps led and owns the best driver rating over the last 10 years. However, those efforts have never resulted in a victory. The good news for #48 fans is that Johnson was undeniably fast in both of Saturday’s practices. He posted the best 10 lap average in Happy Hour and also had the 2nd best 10 lap average in practice 2. In race trim, I thought only one driver had the #48 beat in speed and that was Kevin Harvick. Unlike Johnson, Harvick is a two-time Chicagoland winner. In fact, Harvick won the first two races at Chicagoland in 2001 and 2002. It has been a long run since Harvick last scored a win at Chicagoland but he has been close with 3 top 5 finishes in the last 5 races in the Windy City. Tomorrow Harvick will have a great opportunity to go for his 3rd win at Chicagoland.

Outside of the 48 and the 4, things get pretty cloudy as to who has the best chances to score the win tomorrow. I think you have to put Kyle Larson towards the top of the list. Larson has been on an incredible run over the last few weeks. He has a knack for this type of racing and he nearly pulled off the win at Chicagoland in his rookie season. If you combine his momentum and this style of racing, I would put the #42 among the top drivers for tomorrow. For similar reasons, I think you have to give Brad Keselowski and Denny Hamlin some serious attention. Hamlin has been on a hot streak as well and he is the defending winner of this race. Keselowski always runs really well at Chicagoland and he was sneaky fast in both sessions.

However, most of the Chase drivers were right in the thick of things on speed at least. The JGR cars were not overly dominate on speed like we have seen at times this year. Still, Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, and Matt Kenseth were all pretty satisfied with their cars following Saturday’s sessions. Busch struggled the most with a loose race car but they seemed to find some answers towards the end of Happy Hour. If you are looking for a guy that will have decent odds and probably fly under the radar, then I suggest Kurt Busch. The elder Busch does not have the greatest resume at Chicagoland but has put together some really nice runs in recent years with finishes of 4th, 8th, and 3rd in the last 3 years. The #41 was pretty solid on speed and they got the handling pretty comfortable for Busch as well. I think he will be a guy that will bring some value to your lineup especially in H2H matchups.

A few other guys that could bring you some value in the H2H department includes both RCR teammates in Austin Dillon and Ryan Newman. Newman may have missed the Chase but he has a pretty strong knack for Chicagoland with 7 top 10 finishes in the last 9 races. Newman was right there in the thick of the Chase drivers on Saturday and I believe he could put together another quality run. Dillon is also a guy to watch. He has consistently been a top 15 driver for most of the year but I feel like the #3 team could be a bit better. After a pair of solid practices, Dillon will have an opportunity to capitalize on his first Chase experience when the green waves tomorrow.

2016 Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 400 Race Predictions

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*More race picks to be added closer to race time

Jimmie Johnson +750 (1.25 units): 577 laps led most among active drivers, really strong in race trim, seeking 1st Chicagoland win
Kevin Harvick +800 (1.25 units): two-time Chicagoland winner, another driver that looked really good in race trim
Joey Logano +1200 (1 unit): semi sleeper pick, solid finishes in last two Chicagoland races, should be as good today

H2H Matchups

Kyle Busch/Kyle Larson +323 wins TMNT 400
Ryan Newman -105 over Ryan Blaney
Risking 1.25 units to win: +905

H2H Matchups

Kevin Harvick -125 over Martin Truex Jr (2 units)
Alex Bowman -105 over Greg Biffle (2 units)
Trevor Bayne -140 over Chris Buescher (2 units)
Ryan Neman +830 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)