2016 STP 500 Race Predictions
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday April 3rd, 1:13PM (EST) at Martinsville Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
The Sprint Cup Series returns to action tomorrow afternoon for the first true short track race of the season at Martinsville Speedway with the running of the STP 500. Last year’s two Martinsville races were among the most exciting races of the season and we expect another highly entertaining 500 lap event on Sunday. Joey Logano earned his 3rd straight pole at the half mile paperclip on Friday afternoon. Despite 3 straight poles and several solid finishes, Logano has never won at Martinsville. Last fall Logano was leading during the closing stages of the race before that memorable payback from Matt Kenseth ended his day with a torn up racecar. Tomorrow Logano will get his shot at redemption when he tries to put the #22 in victory lane and get his first Grandfather clock. Take a look as we give a full preview of our 2016 STP 500 race predictions!
One good thing about racing at Martinsville is that it is typically friendly to handicappers. Guys like Jimmie Johnson (8 wins) and Denny Hamlin (5 wins) are always contenders for a victory. In recent years, guys like Dale Earnhardt Jr and Joey Logano have had their shares of really strong runs. Therefore, we typically have a good idea of who will be around the front of the field. Sure, there could be a few surprise stories on Sunday especially if you consider the way the practice speeds looked on Sunday. However, history tells us to go with the drivers that have a knack for this half-mile paperclip as they typically are the ones that come out on top.
Therefore we really have to pay attention to track history at a place like Martinsville with a heavy focus on recent history. A few other things to keep in mind are the importance of track position and starting towards the front. Drivers can go a lap down quick at Martinsville by simply starting towards the back even if they have a fast car and starting towards the front has been crucial throughout the track’s long history. In fact, 71% of race winners have started inside the top 10 in the 134 races run at Martinsville and 21 times has a winner won from the pole position. Therefore, keep those factors in mind on Sunday.
If we play into account the starting position trends, guys like Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt Jr will have their work cut out as both drivers will be starting outside the top 20. Obviously both are still very good at Martinsville and have the ability to get the job done. I mean who could bet against the #48 right now especially at a place where he already has 8 victories? Still, Superman has work to do if he is going to put the #48 back in victory lane again. On the other hand, I really like Joey Logano and Denny Hamlin’s early potential. Logano has been excellent in recent races and I really think he is due for a win. Hamlin will also be starting towards the front and the #11 car’s speed was very competitive during Saturday’s sessions. If we were to see a first time Martinsville winner, I think Matt Kenseth is also a guy to put on your radar if his odds get decent.
Speaking of Saturday’s practice sessions, I believe the #14 of Brian Vickers really impressed with his lap times. Vickers is in a relief role for Tony Stewart as he continues to recover from injuries sustained in an ATV accident. However, the driver of the #14 backed up a 3rd place qualifying effort with some very strong lap times in both of Saturday’s sessions. I would normally not get too caught up with practice speeds but Vickers has proven to pull off the ultimate underdog win before. Think back to Loudon in 2013. So if you are looking for a really big long shot, the #14 may not be a bad gamble. A few other guys that will have long shot type odds on Sunday that also impressed on Saturday include the #31 of Ryan Newman and the #42 of Kyle Larson. Larson actually posted the fastest time in final practice and recorded the 2nd best 10 lap average behind Jimmie Johnson. However, it is worth noting that Larson has only finished better than his starting position once in his 4 starts at Martinsville and has only finished inside the top 20 once as well. Therefore, I will be looking forward to fading Larson in most H2H opportunities on Sunday as he typically struggles very bad at this track.
Newman on the other hand has a 2012 Martinsville win on his resume along with other noteworthy finishes. The #31 was towards the top of the leaderboard in both practices and had strong long run speed. Therefore, I think the #31 has some potential value. I really expect the competition to be wild tomorrow and if a few of those long shots are able to stick around at the front, they could find their self in an opportunistic position towards the end of the race. I know Martinsville does not typically produce surprise winners but I believe there is a higher possibility for it to happen tomorrow. So do not be afraid to throw a few drivers on your roster with long odds in hopes for a big winner!
2016 STP 500 Race Picks
Matt Kenseth +1200 (1.25 units): overdue for a Martinsville win, finished 6th or better in 4 of last 5 starts, starting 9th
Dale Earnhardt Jr +1500 (1.25 units): 2014 winner, 3 top 5 finishes in last 4 starts, really strong in practice 2
Brian Vickers +5500 (.5 unit): great odds, really strong in all practices, fastest 10 lap average in practice 2, starting 3rd
Ryan Newman +7500 (.5 unit): 2012 winner, finished 3rd in the fall of 2014, really strong speeds, value play
Parlays
Kyle Busch +100 wins Alpha Energy Solutions 250 (Won)
Joey Logano +495 wins STP 500
Risking 1 unit to win: +1100
Jimmie Johnson +550 wins STP 500
Jamie McMurray +120 over Martin Truex Jr
Risking 1 unit to win: +1330
H2H Matchups
Ryan Newman -115 over Kyle Larson (3 units)
Dale Earnhardt Jr -130 over Martin Truex Jr (2 units)
Brian Scott -130 over Chris Buescher (2 units)
Chase Elliot -170 over Austin Dillon (2 units)
Dale Earnhardt Jr +475 finishes Top 3 (1 unit)
Brian Vickers +1300 finishes Top 3 (.5 unit)
Ryan Newman +2000 finishes Top 3 (.5 unit)
