2016 Pure Michigan 400 Race Predictions

2016 Pure Michigan 400 Race Predictions
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday August 28th, 2:16PM (EST) at Michigan International Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

Tomorrow afternoon the Sprint Cup Series returns to Michigan International Speedway with the running of the Pure Michigan 400. Back in June, NASCAR unveiled its new aero package for the first time at Michigan which spawned ridiculous speeds well over 200mph and great side by side racing that had previously vanished at the 2 mile surface. The product of racing that the new aero package provided back in June yielded rave reviews from fans and drivers. So much so, that NASCAR returned the exact same package this weekend without any modifications. Therefore, we take this time to prepare for more exciting high speed racing at Michigan International Speedway as we provide our 2016 Pure Michigan 400 race predictions!

NASCAR had a choice to test a different version of the aero package that will be run full-time in 2017. They could have made modifications to the existing package that debuted back in June or brought an entirely new package. The fact that NASCAR returned the exact same package previously used is a testament to the reviews that the Michigan race produced. This aero package has been run twice this season starting at Michigan in June and then at Kentucky in July. Interestingly both of those races were won by a Team Penske driver. Logano won the June race from the pole position, the same position where he will start in tomorrow’s race, and Brad Keselowski won the Kentucky race. Obviously those wins in the first two races under the new package bodes well for Team Penske’s chances again tomorrow especially when you consider both Keselowski and Logano’s rather strong Michigan resumes.

Logano has two victories at Michigan in the last 6 races while finishing no worse than 9th during that stretch. Keselowski does not have any wins but he has been very close while producing finishes of 9th or better in each of the last 5 races at MIS. Practice speeds were a bit all over the place on Saturday with some drivers getting laps that were influenced by the draft where other drivers were solely on single car speed. However, I do expect both Team Penske drivers to be in the thick of the hunt tomorrow afternoon. It’s rare that Team Penske leads my expectations tomorrow especially when you consider that JGR drivers have won nearly half the races this year in the Sprint Cup Series. While that factor may be true, JGR drivers and cars really struggled at Michigan in the first race. In fact, JGR did not have a single driver post a top 5 in either of the races under the new rules package which is quite shocking considering their dominance this season.

Does that mean we need to count out the JGR brigade? Absolutely not! Both Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin looked really strong in practice. Hamlin was fastest in final practice before he spun coming out of turn 4. Luckily the car was suffered minimal damage and that team will not have to go to a backup car. Still with that being said, I do not think the JGR group has the advantage that they have had at most other tracks this season. Actually it may be surprising but I believe the Hendrick Motorsports cars have looked better than the JGR guys heading into tomorrow’s race. Specifically Chase Elliott and Jimmie Johnson stood out among the competition. Elliott had one of his best races of the season back in June. The rookie led 35 laps in route to a 2nd place finish and has backed up that strong run with some really strong laps in all of this weekend’s practices. Elliott’s teammate Jimmie Johnson was also really strong in terms of practice speeds and will be starting from the 3rd position. Michigan has not exactly been one of Johnson’s best tracks but he does have a win to his credit. More importantly all the Hendrick Motorsports cars showed strong speed which raises the value of the #24 and #48 going into Sunday’s event. I have always considered Hendrick Motorsports as one of the best teams to adjust to new rules changes and I think that theory has gained momentum so far this weekend.

If you want a few guys to keep on your radar that could be dark horses or simply bring some value in potential matchups, consider the likes of Kyle Larson and Tony Stewart. Both guys had really strong runs back in June and are more than capable of duplicating those results. Stewart ran inside the top 5 for most of the day before finishing 7th back in June and he was also fastest in the first practice session on Saturday. Larson finished 3rd back in June and I believe he has been one of the best cars throughout the weekend. Larson has been running really well in recent weeks despite having the finishes to show for it. If he can avoid trouble, I believe he is capable of contending for the win yet again.

If you want to go deeper into the dark horse realm, consider Ryan Newman and Jamie McMurray. I think both drivers will bring some upside to your betting lineup in the matchup department. McMurray has finished 16th or better in the last 5 races with two top 10 finishes in the last 3 races. Newman has been equally consistent if not better with an 11.63 average finish in the last 11 races. Neither driver has a tendency for practicing that well which means they are usually listed in lower tier matchups. However, do not let the practice speeds fool you because both drivers are worth producing solid finishes yet again tomorrow!

2016 Pure Michigan 400 Race Predictions

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Denny Hamlin +1100 (1.25 units): Two-time Michigan winner, 5th place finish back in June, fastest in final practice
Chase Elliott +1200 (1.25 units): runner-up finish in June fter leading 35 laps, best 10 lap average in practice 2, the rookie has the car to get it done!
Kyle Larson +1200 (1.25 units): 3rd place finish in June, best 10 lap average in Happy Hour, looked strong deep into race trim

Two Team Parlays

Joey Logano/Brad Keselowski +362 win Pure Michigan 400
Ryan Blaney +125 over Kasey Kahne
Risking 1.25 units to win: +1174

Jimmie Johnson +950 win Pure Michigan 400
Greg Biffle -130 over Paul Menard
Risking .5 units to win: +878

H2H Matchups and Props

Brad Keselowski -115 over Matt Kenseth (3 units)(early forums pick)
Jimmie Johnson -110 ver Martin Truex Jr (2 units)
Denny Hamlin -120 over Martin Truex Jr (2 units)
Ryan Blaney +650 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)