2016 Pennsylvania 400 Race Predictions

2016 Pennsylvania 400 Race Predictions
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday July 31st, 1:50PM (EST) at Pocono Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

Today the Sprint Cup Series returns to Pocono Raceway for the running of the Pennsylvania 400. Just over a month ago, the Sprint Cup Series made their first stop of the season at Pocono. In that race, Kurt Busch held off the likes of Dale Earnhardt Jr and Brad Keselowski to capture the checkered flag in the closing laps. The win locked the #41 team into the Chase for the Sprint Cup. Today several drivers look to score their first win of the season but a host of veterans stand in the way including the Joe Gibbs Racing camp that has won 10 of the 20 races this season. Find out who we think has the best chance to earn a trip to victory lane today as we provide our 2016 Pennsylvania 400 race predictions!

The last time the Sprint Cup Series were in the Poconos, drivers Matt Kenseth, Chase Elliott, and Kurt Busch were clearly the best cars in the field. Before you go throw you bets on those drivers for today’s race, keep in mind that track conditions were very different back in June. When the green flag drops this afternoon, track temperatures will be around 20 degrees hotter than it was in June and that means the track will be very slick. Teams and drivers are going to have a tough time finding the correct balance for all ends of the race track. So while we know the drivers that stood out back in June, that does not necessarily mean they will be as strong when the green flag waves this afternoon.

On Saturday, Kurt Busch posted some solid fast lap times but had difficulty maintaining that speed over long runs. On the speed charts, Busch looks like he may be primed for another run at the victory after finishing 4th in Happy Hour. However, his times were not very consistent and I do not think he has the long run speed to contend this afternoon. Therefore be careful comparing single lap speed and results from June to determine the drivers you are going to take this afternoon.

However, there are a few factors from the June race that will definitely be in play again this afternoon. Those factors include track position and pit road strategy. With a track as big as Pocono, fuel mileage and optimizing the best pit road strategy are going to be inevitable. Additionally, we saw in June that the importance of track position cannot be undermined. Passing is extremely difficult at Pocono and the driver that can capitalize on track position to get clean air is going to be in best position for the victory. Therefore keep in mind a few of the intangibles when handicapping this race. For example, which drivers are great at conserving fuel or what crew chiefs will take the chance to roll the dice to take chances towards gaining vital track position to put their selves in position for the win?

Of course the intangibles are just one side of the equation as you still need to have the fastest cars in your corner if you are going to get a profitable lineup out of today’s race. On Saturday, pole sitter Martin Truex Jr proved that he has one of the fastest cars in the field. Truex posted the fastest lap in Happy Hour and also posted the best 10 lap average of the weekend. Considering how hard it is to pass at Pocono, I feel pretty confident in stating that Truex should be able to lead a lot of the early laps given his short run and long run speed. The #78 team has not had any problems being fast this season but they have rarely been able to put everything together with the exception of their dominance in the Coca Cola 600. Still, the #78 team has a car capable of winning if they can keep everything together.

From a practices standpoint, the only car that I thought had the speed to match the #78 was that of the #4 car of Kevin Harvick. In fact, Harvick may have been the best car in either of this weekend’s practices. One thing that may hurt Harvick’s chances this afternoon is the fact that crew chief Rodney Childers is suspended this weekend after lug nut violations stemming from last week’s race at Indianapolis. Childers is one of the best crew chiefs in the garage so his absence will definitely hurt. However, teammate Kurt Busch scored a Pocono victory back in June with an interim crew chief in a similar situation so Harvick will have the chance to repeat that scenario.

As far as the rest of the field is concerned, I think you have to pay attention to all of the JGR cars. Denny Hamlin has 4 Pocono wins and looked really strong throughout practices. Carl Edwards is a two time winner and Matt Kenseth is the defending Pennsylvania 400 winner. Surprisingly Kyle Busch is the only JGR driver that does not have a Pocono victory to his resume as Pocono is just one of two tracks where the reigning Sprint Cup Champion has not earned a victory. However, Busch is one of those drivers that you can never truly rule out.

Outside of the JGR alliance and Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski likely has the best opportunity to win today. Keselowski has a 2011 Pocono win to his resume and has posted finishes of 3rd and 2nd in his last two starts. The #2 car was 2nd fastest in Happy Hour and appears to be among the faster cars in the field. If you throw in the intangibles mentioned earlier, nobody in NASCAR is better at saving fuel than Keselowski and Paul Wolfe is one of the best in the business in terms of strategy. Therefore, keep the #2 on your radar. A few other outsiders that I believe a worth everyone’s attention include guys like Chase Elliott and Jimmie Johnson.

The Hendrick cars have not been very impressive in recent weeks but Pocono has been a place where they have traditionally run well. Elliott led a race high 51 laps in the June race in route to a 4th place finish in one of his best performances of the season. Meanwhile, Jimmie Johnson posted some very strong lap times on Saturday to indicate he could also sneak up into contention this afternoon. A few other guys that should race their way forward and provide some decent H2H value include guys like Austin Dillon, Ryan Blaney, and Kasey Kahne.

*Rain will be a factor this afternoon. Therefore that puts an even bigger emphasis on track position and the intangibles previously mentioned

2016 Pennsylvania 400 Race Predictions

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*More race predictions may be posted closer to race time

Denny Hamlin +950 (1.25 units): 4-time Pocono winner, very consistent lap times in final practice, starting upfront
Brad Keselowski +1100 (1.25 units): early forums pick, 2011 winner, finishes of 3rd and 2nd in last two starts, 2nd fastest in Happy Hour
Joey Logano +1500 (1 unit): 2012 winner, finished top 5 in 3 of last 4 starts, led most laps in this race last fall
Ryan Newman +4000 (.5 unit): 2003 Pocono winner, RCR cars have looked really fast this weekend, starting upfront, with weather in the area anything can happen

H2H Matchups and Props

Kevin Harvick +650 wins Pennsylvania 400
Chris Buescher -170 over Brian Scott
Risking 1.5 units to win: +1636

H2H Matchups and Props

Kevin Harvick -130 over Kyle Busch (4 units)
Martin Truex Jr -155 over Kyle Busch (3 units)
Chase Elliott -115 over Kurt Busch (2 units)
Kyle Larson -125 over Jeff Gordon (2 units)
Chase Elliott +525 finishes Top 3 (.5 unit)
Ryan Newman +1250 finishes Top 3 (.5 unit)