2016 O’Reilly Auto Parts 300 Race Predictions
NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Friday April 8th, 8:46PM (EST) at Texas Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
The first night race of the season will take place later this evening when the Xfinity Series goes racing in the Lone Star State at Texas Motor Speedway for the running of the O’Reilly Auto Parts 300. A star-studded lineup awaits tonight’s event that will see the green flag wave at 8:46PM EST. Among the big names that will be in action tonight, along with the Xfinity Series regulars, include guys like Kyle Busch, Dale Earnhardt Jr, Brad Keselowski, Austin Dillon, Chase Elliot, and Kyle Larson. Therefore the first night race of the season should be a very exciting spectacle and we look forward to some great racing. Take a look as we preview tonight’s race and provide our 2016 O’Reilly Auto Parts 300 race predictions!
Despite the extremely talented lineup, Kyle Busch still leads the field tonight as the favorite to win the O’Reilly Auto Parts 300. It is hard to bet against Kyle at least in theory considering he has won 3 of his 4 starts this season in the Xfinity Series which includes two victories on 1.5 mile tracks. If you throw out the blown tire fiasco at California on the last lap, Rowdy would be perfect with 4 wins. Needless to say, he leads all competitors going into tonight’s race until someone proves they can dethrone the series all-time win leader. Busch finished 2nd in final practice behind teammate Erik Jones and we know from recent history that the JGR cars should be among the class of the field.
Jones actually swept both practices on Thursday and he looks to be so close to scoring his first win. He posted 3rd place finishes at both Atlanta and Las Vegas earlier this year and it will be interesting to see if he can finally squeeze through to earn a victory later tonight. From the early looks of things, he definitely has the car to get the job done. Jones’ 10 lap averages in the final practice on Thursday were nothing short of dominate so if the #20 team can keep up with the racetrack and avoid any trouble they should have a great shot for the win tonight.
Behind the #20 and #18 machines, you will have a hungry group of guys fighting for a chance to steal a victory this evening. Many would consider Brad Keselowski the next best option. However, I just have not seen the speed out of the #22 car this year to make Keselowski a huge threat like he normally is in the series. In 3 starts, Keselowski has posted finishes of 6th (Atlanta), 15th (Las Vegas), and 9th (Phoenix). I know the #22 team has winning potential especially with Keselowski at the wheel but I feel like they need to find a little more speed before they are going to make it back to victory lane.
Dale Earnhardt Jr and Chase Elliot have Texas wins on their resumes in this series. This will be Earnhardt’s first start in the Xfinity Series in 2016 while Elliot will be making his 4th start. Interesting Chase Elliot has finished in the top 5 in all 3 of his starts this season including his win back at Daytona to begin the year. The #5 did not look overly impressive in practice but that is nothing new for Elliot as he typically gets the best out of his cars on race day. I am not sure if the #5 can steal the win tonight but I expect him to run strong as normal despite a rather pedestrian afternoon on Thursday.
Earnhardt was another guy that did not necessarily impress on speed on Thursday. The #88 finished final practice 17th on speed and struggled with the “feel” of the car. Earnhardt has not had too much success in the Xfinity Series in recent years as he has failed to win in his last 20 starts going back to that memorable 2010 July Daytona win in the #3 car. However, Earnhardt does love Texas Motor Speedway and he has finished inside the top 5 in each of the last 3 years in this race. Therefore, do not be surprised if either Elliot or Earnhardt sneak their way into the top 5 by the latter half of the race later tonight.
If you want consistency, Austin Dillon may be your best pick of the race. Dillon has not finished worse than 7th in his 4 starts this season in the Xfinity Series and if you remember he stole the win when Busch had has troubles in Fontana in the last race. Interestingly, Dillon has also never finished worse than 7th in his 7 starts at Texas in the Xfinity Series despite failing to score any wins. The #2 was decent in practice so do not expect him to hang around the front. A guy that looked even better in practices on Thursday was the driver of the #42 in Kyle Larson. Larson finished 3rd on speed in final practice and also looked pretty good on long run times as well. If you consider Larson’s 2nd place finish at Atlanta, you have to give him some legitimate consideration for today’s race and I personally think he is the sleeper pick behind the #18 and #20 cars.
Outside of the well-known names, expect guys like Ty Dillon and Brandon Jones to mix it up with the veterans tonight. I thought Dillon looked good on speed but that has been the case for most of the season. The #3 team has struggled to finish races as strong as where they have started. So that will be a trend to keep in mind for H2H purposes. Brandon Jones has better potential in H2H matchups. The #33 has not finished worse than 11th all season and I believe the youngster’s potential is just building with each passing week. I expect another quality run out of the #33 car tonight and would consider using Jones in some lower tier H2H matchups.
2016 O’Reilly Auto Parts 300 Race Picks
Erik Jones +400 (3 units): won his first Texas start in this race 1 year ago, finished 4th in the fall, fastest speed in both practices combined with fastest 10 lap average
Austin Dillon +1050 (1 unit): value pick, very consistent in both practices, feel like #2 team has something to build off of
Two Team Parlay
Kyle Busch +110 wins O’Reilly Auto Parts 300
Slot 2 – Open
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD
H2H Matchups
Elliot Sadler -120 over Aric Almirola (2 units)
Brandon Jones -130 over Justin Allgaier (2 units)
Erik Jones -175 over Daniel Suarez (2 units)
