2016 New Hampshire 301 Race Predictions

2016 New Hampshire 301 Race Predictions
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday July 17th, 1:44PM (EST) at New Hampshire Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

Tomorrow afternoon the Sprint Cup Series will make their first stop of the season in Loudon for the running of the New Hampshire 301. The Sprint Cup Series makes two annual stops each season at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. The fall race carries elevated importance because it is the 2nd race in the Chase for the Sprint Cup. However, tomorrow’s race is equally important as drivers and teams search for speed to bring back to Loudon in September. Of course capturing the checkered flag in tomorrow’s race could also lock drivers into the Chase or give existing season winners an even bigger boost at the beginning of the Chase. Find out the drivers who have a great chance to capture tomorrow’s checkered flag as we break down our 2016 New Hampshire 301 race predictions!

Last year Joe Gibbs Racing cars swept both Loudon races with victories stemming from both Kyle Busch and Matt Kenseth. The JGR brigade has also had a great weekend thus far through practices and qualifying. If you include the JGR alliance of Martin Truex Jr, then we have had at least 3 JGR cars in the top 5 in every practice session and qualifying this weekend. The JGR Toyotas have been strong all season but they also have a lot of talent behind the wheel of their racecars. That talent has been proven at Loudon well before the emergence of the JGR equipment. Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, and Matt Kenseth all have two wins at New Hampshire Motor Speedway . More importantly, those guys have been very strong thus far this weekend which seems to indicate they will be legitimate threats for win yet again on Sunday.

Kenseth has been one of the most consistent drivers in Loudon throughout his career. He has posted 8 top 5 finishes and 17 top 10 finishes in 32 starts to go along with his 2 victories. He is 2nd to Brad Keselowski in the best average finishing position over the last 10 races with a 9.5 average finishing position. Speaking of Keselowski, he has almost amassed the most wins in the Sprint Cup Series this season. Last week, Keselowski earned his 4th victory of the season by overcoming a disastrous track and tire setup at Kentucky Speedway. It was Keselowski’s 2nd straight victory going back to his win in the Coke Zero 400 at Daytona and he will have a pretty good opportunity to reach a rare feat of 3 straight wins when the green flag waves tomorrow afternoon. The 2014 New Hampshire winner has the best average finishing position over the last 10 events at Loudon and the #2 was right with the JGR bunch in terms of speed throughout practices.

I thought Keselowski and Kevin Harvick were the best cars outside of the JGR Toyotas on speed throughout the final sessions on Saturday. Of course Harvick has had great success at Phoenix which bears some similarities to Loudon. Richmond would be the other track that draws comparison to Loudon as another flat track where you have to let the car roll through the corner to focus on corner exit speed. Kyle Busch and Harvick are easily the best drivers on average over those 3 tracks which is something to keep in mind going into Sunday.

A few drivers that stood out, that may not exactly mirror that success on the similar layouts to New Hampshire, include the likes of Kurt Busch and Chase Elliott. I was really impressed with the raw speed in the #41 machine and the rookie Elliott just continues to show his incredible talent. The #24 posted the 4th best 10 lap average in practice 2 and also posted the fastest lap in Happy Hour. After a strong 7th place qualifying effort, I believe he will hang around the top 10 all day and possibly even around the top 5. The elder Busch also had a really good qualifying effort in the 4th position which incites some potential dark horse potential. Starting position and overall track position is crucial at New Hampshire because passing can be very difficult. Therefore, do not be afraid to pull the trigger on some guys starting at the front who are getting decent odds especially with the #24 and #41 cars.

I know practice speeds are not always important and often can be misleading. One driver that I have not mentioned yet that I expect to run really well in spite of a few mediocre sessions on Saturday includes the six time champion Jimmie Johnson. Johnson won the pole for tomorrow’s race and was very happy with the handling of the race car. The car reportedly rolled through the cornered well which is a critical aspect towards getting around Loudon. I expect the #48 to lead a lot of the early laps. If they can keep the rear tires on the car, the #48 team could stay in contention through tomorrow’s 301 laps.

2016 New Hampshire 301 Race Predictions

Get instant access to the best NASCAR odds and the only sportsbook that parlays race winners with 5 Dimes

*More race predictions to be posted closer to race time

Kevin Harvick +600 (1.25 units): 2006 winner, top 3 finishes in 2 of past 3, best 10 consecutive lap average in Happy Hour
Carl Edwards +700 (1.25 units): one of the fastest cars since unloading on Friday, 5th place finish last fall
Matt Kenseth +1000 (1.25 units): Two-time Loudon winner including last fall, 3rd best 10 lap average in final practice

Two Team Parlay

Kyle Busch -155 wins AutoLotto 200 (Winner)
Kyle Busch/Kevin Harvick/ +255 wins New Hampshire 301
Risking 2.5 units to win: +1210

Denny Hamlin/Brad Keselowski +395 wins New Hampshire 301
Chris Buescher +125 over Brian Scott
Risking 1 unit to win: +1015

Kyle Busch/Brad Keselowski/Denny Hamlin +200 wins New Hampshire 301
Ricky Stenhouse Jr -140 over Trevor Bayne
Risking 1.5 units to win: +610

H2H Matchups and Props

Ricky Stenhouse Jr -140 over Trevor Bayne (3 units)
Casey Mears -140 over Dania Patrick (2 units)
Jamie McMurray -145 over Paul Menard (2 units)
Kurt Busch +115 over Martin Truex Jr (2 units)
Kurt Busch +500 finishes Top 3 (.5 unit)