2016 Mid-Ohio 200 Race Predictions

2016 Mid-Ohio 200 Race Predictions
NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Saturday August 13th, 3:48PM (EST) at Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

The Xfinity Series will be the only NASCAR touring series in action this weekend ahead of next weekend’s triple header that will feature all series in 3 straight nights of racing at Bristol Motor Speedway. As we anticipate next weekend’s racing at the world’s fastest half-mile, today the action will surround an entirely different type of racing as we look to drop the green flag at the 2.4 mile Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course in Lexington, Ohio. Get ready as we go road course racing for the 2nd week in a row and provide our 2016 Mid-Ohio 200 race predictions!

The majority of the Sprint Cup Series drivers that normally participate in the Xfinity Series will not be in action this week as they enjoy a rare “off” week in the Sprint Cup Series. The only driver that did not take a vacation this week will be Ryan Blaney who will be driving the #22 Discount Tire Ford for Team Penske. Interestingly, Blaney is not a name that you would think of when it comes to road course racing. In fact, this will be just his 2nd road course start in the Xfinity Series dating back to last year’s 2nd place finish at Road American. Still, it is rather surprising that Team Penske put Blaney in the car this week considering their history of placing prominent road course talents, like Alex Tagliani and AJ Allmendinger, in their cars over the past few years. While Blaney is not necessarily a road course “ringer” per say, he will still be one of the drivers receiving short odds to win this afternoon based on his overall talent.

However, there will be plenty of road course talents in action this afternoon. Sam Hornish Jr returns to the #2 car for RCR, Owen Kelly gets his first start since 2013 in the #18 for JGR, Nelson Piquet Jr will be in the #98 machine, and a few other talents will be spread throughout the field. Hornish has appeared to have the best car throughout the weekend thus far. He put the #2 car on top of the charts in final practice and he also won the pole for today’s race on Friday as well. Despite not having any wins on road courses previously, Hornish is one of the best road course talents in the field and has numerous top 5 finishes on his resume at road courses. Hornish was the Cinderella story back at Iowa in June and he will have a great opportunity to build on that story this afternoon.

Another road course talent in Owen Kelly qualified on the outside pole position and will be looking for a similar Cinderella story this afternoon. Interestingly, Kelly has 3 prior starts in the Xfinity Series all coming on road courses. In two of those 3 races, he posted top 5 finishes both coming at Road America. Therefore, we know Kelly has talent worthy of racing upfront and he is arguably in the best ride in the field by way of that #18 JGR Toyota. Despite Kelly’s talent, I am still skeptical towards backing him as a favorite. It is extremely rare for a one hit wonder to get a win in any of NASCAR’s series and I don’t think the odds of that happening match the odds that Kelly is receiving this afternoon.

Instead, I think there are better options especially from an odds perspective if you are going to bet on anyone outside of the top 2 drivers pertaining to Hornish and Blaney. Both of the JGR cars in Daniel Suarez and Erik Jones are debatable options. Suarez finished 4th last week at Watkins Glen and Erik Jones rallied back to finish 12th after running out of gas midway through the event. Both guys are not known for their road course talents but we know how much speed is in those JGR Toyotas as well. I also like the value in guys like Elliott Sadler and Ty Dillon. Both drivers have been fast throughout the weekend and have the ability to stay up front to put their selves in position for the win. At 12-1 odds, I feel like both Dillon and Sadler may be the best value on the board.

Of course this race will be like most other road course races with a lot of emphasis on track position and pit strategy. We have seen in the last few weeks that the importance of putting yourself in winning position at road course races are just as important as having a fast car. Just look at Tony Stewart’s win at Sonoma and Denny Hamlin’s win last week at Watkins Glen for reference. Therefore, I believe most of your guys towards the front have a potential shot at today’s victory especially if they play the strategy card correctly. However, do not overlook the value in H2H bets which typically favor handicapping strategies at road courses to bring some extra value to your overall lineup!

2016 Mid-Ohio 200 Race Predictions

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Ryan Blaney +400 (2 units): top 5 in both practices, starting 3rd, has proved strong road course talent in few road course starts during career
Owen Kelly +1100 (1 unit): a pair of top 5 finishes in 3 career starts on road course, in one of the best rides in the series, starting 2nd
Ty Dillon +1200 (1.25 units): 3rd place finish last year, fastest in practice 1, starting 7th

Two Team Parlay

H2H Matchups and Props

Ryan Blaney -150 over Daniel Suarez (3 units)
Elliott Sadler +105 over Brendan Gaughan (2 units)