2016 Lucas Oil 150 Race Predictions
NASCAR Camping World Truck Series Betting Preview
Friday November 11th, 10:18PM (EST) at Phoenix International Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
Just one venue stands between Chase drivers and a final drive for a championship at Homestead. Tonight the Camping World Truck Series will launch a 3 day race weekend at Phoenix International Raceway with the running of the Lucas Oil 150. The goal for the Chase drivers will be the same among all 3 series this weekend and that is to do whatever it takes to earn a championship opportunity next week at Homestead-Miami Speedway. In the last two weeks, Johnny Sauter has captured critical victories at both Martinsville and Texas. Currently Sauter is the only Truck Series driver that has secured his bid to Homestead and tonight’s race will decide the final 3 drivers at the end of 150 miles. Find out our thoughts on tonight’s race as we provide our 2016 Lucas Oil 150 Race Predictions!
If you are interested in the Chase picture for the Camping World Truck Series, then let me provide a brief overview. From 2nd-5th in the Chase standings, William Byron, Christopher Bell, Matt Crafton, and Timothy Peters are all separated by a mere 4 points. Therefore those drivers cannot afford to have any types of troubles this evening or they will likely not advance. Ben Kennedy currently sits in 6th place in the standings 12 points outside of 5th position. Therefore, Kennedy would likely need a victory this evening unless several of the other Chase drivers run into issues.
Although the Chase drama will be exciting tonight, I know our main focus is to predict a winner. With that being said, Phoenix is usually a difficult race to handicap. The reason is simple in that Phoenix is the only track of it’s kind that the Truck Series stops at each year. Therefore, we just do not have a lot of data that correlates with this unique 1 mile racetrack. However, there are a few tracks that have some similarities to Phoenix which can be useful in trying to compile some trends. New Hampshire and Martinsville are good starting points to consider due to their flat surfaces that have some similar braking trends.
If we look at those races, Johnny Sauter and William Byron stand out among the competition. Sauter won just two weeks ago at Martinsville and the entire #21 race team is peaking at the moment. Sauter surprised a lot of people with his victory at Texas last week virtually coming out of nowhere in the closing laps. The entire #21 team has a lot of momentum going and they very solid in Friday’s early practices. Byron was another guy that was also strong in Friday’s practices. Byron was the fastest truck in the first practice and posted the best 10 lap average of the few trucks that elected to run at least 10 laps in both practices. If you consider how dominant Byron was at New Hampshire, I definitely think he has to be considered the overall favorite this evening as I consider New Hampshire one of the closest resemblances to Phoenix on the schedule and Byron completely dominated that race.
Outside of those two guys, the window of opportunity really opens up through the rest of the field. With the amount of youth in tonight’s field, we could easily see some new names make their way towards the front. Guys like Kaz Grala and Noah Gragson are among unknown names that could gain some notoriety this evening. However if we are just talking about drivers that could potentially win tonight’s race, I think the list narrows to some more obvious choices. Matt Crafton may be a popular choice but I would quickly point out the fact he is 0 and 15 at Phoenix throughout his career despite a few close calls.
Crafton just has not been aggressive enough during this Chase for me to have enough confidence in selecting. Timothy Peters won this race last year but he is another guy that is wildly inconsistent towards running at the front and will not be getting enough value from an odds standpoint. Instead, I think the likes of Christopher Bell and John Hunter Nemecheck have some serious upside in dark horse potential and relatively good odds. JHN is my dark horse pick for tonight’s race as he is typically strong at these types of tracks throughout his young career. Meanwhile, Bell has been very strong during the entire 2nd half of the season and looked really good in practices. If you can find a solid number on either of those two dark horses, do not be afraid to pull the trigger.
2016 Lucas Oil 150 Race Predictions
Christopher Bell +700 (1 unit)
John Hunter Nemechek +1100(1.25 units)
Two Team Parlay
William Byron +180 wins Lucas Oil 150
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1.5 units to win: TBD
H2H Matchups
William Byron -115 over Matt Crafton (3 units)
Tyler Reddick -115 over Daniel Hemric (2 units)
