2016 Kobalt 400 Race Picks
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday March 6th, 3:46PM (EST) at Las Vegas Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
The 3rd race of the season will take place later this afternoon when the Sprint Cup Series goes racing in Las Vegas with the running of the Kobalt 400. Last week Jimmie Johnson scored a victory at Atlanta Motor Speedway in an exciting race that had just 3 cautions. Drivers really had their hands full last week over the long green flag runs in search of grip and trying to save tires as a result of Atlanta’s abrasive surface. Today tire fall off should not be as big of a factor but car handling will be equally important again. Therefore teams must have their cars dialed in and make the right adjustments to give their driver an opportunity at a Vegas style victory. Take a look as we preview the drivers and teams worthy of some attention for today’s 400 mile race in our 2016 Kobalt 400 race picks preview.
I believe the driver to beat heading into today’s race is Jimmie Johnson in the #48 machine. Johnson and the Lowes team were on top of their game last week. Chad Knaus made the right calls from the pit box with fuel strategy, the team made the right adjustments to have the #48 car the best at the end of the race, and Johnson drove one heck of a race in what was truly a team effort type of victory. All of those factors just prove why the #48 team can be so tough to beat when they are on top of their game. Today Johnson goes into Vegas where he leads all active drivers with 4 victories. More importantly the #48 was very stout in Saturday’s practices and had the best lap times of any competitors in race trim. I think they are the guys to watch for again today. I know the chances of 2 in a row are slim but let’s not forget how streaky the #48 team can be as well.
A few of the other drivers that looked really strong from a practices standpoint was the #20 of Matt Kenseth and the #11 of Denny Hamlin. I thought Kenseth was as solid as anyone on lap times. Remember, Kenseth had one of the best cars at Atlanta last week before a pit road penalty ruined their day so we know they have speed on the 1.5 mile tracks. Kenseth’s history at Las Vegas speaks volumes as well. He has 3 victories and the best average finishing position (11.38) of all active drivers. The bad news is both Kenseth and Johnson are listed at 5-1 odds or lower at most sportsbooks. Therefore, it will be tough to find a lot of value in their odds.
If you are looking for a few drivers that have a good chance this afternoon with better odds, I like the value that Dale Earnhardt Jr and Denny Hamlin bring to the table. Earnhardt looked solid in happy hour and credited their improvement from Friday to the #48 team. Earnhardt mentioned the collaborative effort that his team made with the #48 to get their car better and I already mentioned how strong the #48 has been this weekend. Hamlin is a guy that I think a lot of people are looking past. The #11 had some solid lap times in Happy Hour and he was very good at the lower downforce races last year. If you go back to last season’s Kobalt 400, Hamlin posted a 5th place finish with a 108.7 driver rating meaning he was at the front of the field for the bulk of the afternoon. I think the #11 needs to be better to get to victory lane this afternoon but the great odds make Hamlin an enticing option.
A few more drivers to keep an eye on include Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch. Harvick has nearly dominated the 1.5 mile tracks over the last two years leading 1,730 laps on the past 25 intermediate tracks. Harvick was not too overly impressive in practices on Friday but you know that #4 car will run well. Kyle Busch really struggled throughout most of Saturday’s sessions but made a very strong run to close happy hour. Therefore, the changes to the #18 may have him ready to charge to the front after a rather pedestrian 23rd place qualifying effort. Other guys that deserve mentioning prior to today’s event include Kurt Busch and Carl Edwards.
The elder Busch won his 2nd straight pole and will lead the field to the green flag this afternoon. Busch and the #41 team struggled a bit during the midpoint of last week’s race at Atlanta but recovered for a solid 4th place finish. The team obviously has speed but keeping on top of the changes seems to be their weakness most weeks. Edwards also had a strong finish last week at Atlanta bringing home the #19 car in the 5th position. I think Edwards has benefitted as much as anyone from the new rules package with lower downforce and it is obvious he really likes this type of driving. The #19 finished final practice P2 on the boards so they appear to have another fast ride. I was not overly impressed with the race trim times but Carl seems to get the best out of his car on longer runs under this package so it will be interesting to keep an eye on the #19 car.
If you are looking for a few sleepers that could bring you some value in H2H or fantasy situations, I think Austin Dillon should be towards the top of the list. Dillon has shown considerable improvement I the #3 car and they keep getting better. Dillon finished final practice with the fastest 10 lap average. Another guy that I think deserves some attention following last week’s run at Atlanta is Chase Elliot. I do not think Elliot got enough credit for last week’s 8th place finish. We have a rookie who made his 2nd start of the season at one of the toughest tracks on circuit in a race that was physically/mentally demanding due to the lack of cautions yet he finishes right in the middle of the biggest names in the sport. If that does not deserve some early respect, nothing will. Nothing too exciting on speed out of the #24 so far this weekend but Elliot’s driving style is never going to be too dominate on fast lap times. He gets the best out of his car in race trim and that’s all that matters.
2016 Kobalt 400 Race Picks
Kyle Busch +1000 (1.25 units): 2009 winner, posted impressive 3rd place run last week, team made big improvements over the weekend and a few more will have them where they need to be, starting 23rd
Carl Edwards +1500(1 unit): 2 time LVMS winner with last in 2011, 4 top 5 finishes in last 5 starts, starting 24th
Dale Earnhardt Jr +1650 (1 unit): our sleeper pick last week that finished 2nd and sleeper pick again this week, strong end to happy hour, finished 4th and 2nd in last two LVMS starts
Denny Hamlin +2850 (.5 unit): half unit cover play at great odds, solid times in race trim, 5th place finish last year, starting 9th
Two Team Parlays
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Kyle Busch +100 wins Boyd Gaming 300 (Won)
Matt Kenseth +500 wins Kobalt 400
Risking 1.5 units to win: +1650
Jimmie Johnson +400 wins Kobalt 400
Dale Earnhardt Jr +115 over Brad Keselowski
Risking 1.5 units to win: +1462
H2H Matchups and Props
Jimmie Johnson -140 over Joey Logano (2 units)
Carl Edwards +150 over Joey Logano (2 units)
Austin Dillon -145 over Kyle Larson (2 units)
Kasey Kahne -120 over Ryan Newman (2 units)
