2016 Hollywood Casino Race Predictions

2016 Hollywood Casino 400 Race Predictions
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday October 16th, 2:31PM (EST) at Kansas Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

The 2nd race in the Sprint Cup Chase Round of 12 will take place tomorrow afternoon when the green flag waves for the Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway. Last week Jimmie Johnson earned his automatic bid to the next round of the Chase with his victory at Charlotte in the Bank of America 500. While Johnson is safe, the remaining 11 drivers in the Chase are fighting for every point to ensure their championship hopes remain alive. With the unpredictability of Talladega looming on the horizon, tomorrow’s race at Kansas will be very important towards getting the most points possible to ensure drivers are in the best points position when we visit Talladega next week. As the Chase drama unfolds, we take this time to present our expectations for tomorrow’s race at Kansas and provide our 2016 Hollywood Casino 400 race predictions!

In recent weeks, many teams around the Sprint Cup Series garage appeared to close the gap on the Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas that have been so dominant this year. I spoke highly of the gains that Hendrick Motorsports had made going into last week’s race and Jimmie Johnson proved that statement to be true by capturing his 8th career victory at Charlotte. However, since teams unloaded cars on Friday, the Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas have been nothing short of dominant. Matt Kenseth, a two-time Kansas winner, captured the pole for tomorrow’s race. If you throw in Martin Truex Jr who runs the same equipment as JGR, those Toyota racecars took 5 of the top 7 qualifying spots on Friday and they have looked extremely impressive in every session thus far this weekend.

Truex returned the same chassis that led 187 laps in route to a victory at Dover just a few weeks ago. While many expect Truex to be a factor again tomorrow, it was the other JGR powered engines that were most impressive. Kenseth, Denny Hamlin, and Kyle Busch were notably strong throughout all sessions. All 3 drivers are former Kansas winners and their speed were obvious indicators they should contend again tomorrow. Hamlin looked really good in final practice once the groove widened out to the wall and Busch also seemed get dialed in late in Happy Hour. Busch actually posted the 3rd best 10 lap average in the final practice. Overall, all of the JGR powered cars looked strong but those 3 guys previously mentioned looked to be the best of the group especially the #20 car of Kenseth.

I felt like only a few guys had enough speed to contend with the JGR brigade following Saturday’s practices. If I was putting together a group of drivers that could potentially challenge the Toyotas on Sunday, it would be a short list that includes Kevin Harvick, Chase Elliott, and Joey Logano. Harvick arguably had the fastest car at the end of final practice. The #4 car posted the best 10 lap average at the beginning of final practice and remained very fast until the session closed. Remarkably, Harvick has posted one victory and 3 runner-up finishes in his last 6 starts at Kansas. Therefore, he definitely has a knack for this 1.5 mile surface.

Another guy that definitely has a knack for Kansas is Joey Logano. Logano has won this race in each of the last two years. Logano has actually posted top 5 finishes in 5 of the last 6 races at Kansas as well. The #22 struggled a bit early in the weekend but they found some speed as they continued to work on the car. Additionally, Logano’s history at Kansas promises that he should contend again on Sunday. Elliott is another guy that I expect will be a factor as well. The rookie has run really well in recent weeks despite some misfortune. Last week, Elliott had one of the fastest cars at Charlotte but got caught up in a late wreck. Elliott has shown speed throughout the Chase with a pair of 3rd place finishes in the opening round. He has been best on the 1.5 mile surfaces and nothing indicates that will be any different when the green flag waves tomorrow.

If you are looking for some guys that may bring some value to fantasy or H2H scenarios, I would suggest guys like Kyle Larson, Kasey Kahne, and perhaps Paul Menard if you are really looking for a longshot. Larson has faded a bit in recent weeks since his hot streak before the Chase but I still like his driving style at a place like Kansas where drivers can get really aggressive in the outside racing groove that is against the wall. If there is a better driver that runs against the wall than Kyle Larson, I have not noticed them yet. Kasey Kahne has been running really well in recent weeks including a 3rd place finish last week at Charlotte. While Charlotte is one Kahne’s best tracks, the #5 car has still posted 5 top 10 finishes in the last 6 races. Paul Menard is another guy that I have on my fantasy radar. The #27 car was fastest in practice 2, posted the 2nd best 10 lap average, and backed that up with solid speed in final practice. Therefore, the #27 car may be someone to consider for low-tier match-ups or fantasy lineups.

2016 Hollywood Casino 400 Race Predictions

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Kevin Harvick +650 (1.5 units): 1 victory and 3 runner-up finishes in last 6 Kansas starts, appeared to be the best with the #20 in practices
Denny Hamlin +1000 (1.25 units): 2012 winner, runner-up in this race last year, race trim speed looked great
Joey Logano +1600 (1 unit): early forums pick, won last 2 October Kansas races, value bet
Kyle Larson +2000 (1 unit): 2014 runner-up, should be one of the more aggressive drivers on the top which should produce a lot of speed, good value

Two Team Parlay

Kyle Busch -120 wins Kansas Lottery 300 (win)
Matt Kenseth +525 wins Hollywood Casino 400
Risking 1.5 units to win: +1568

H2H Matchups and Props

Denny Hamlin -115 over Carl Edwards (3 units)
Kevin Harvick -140 over Martin Truex Jr (2 units)
Joey Logano +100 over Brad Keselowski (2 units)
Paul Menard -125 over Greg Biffle (1 unit)
Kasey Kahne +600 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)