2016 Hellmann’s 500 Race Predictions
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday October 23rd, 2:20PM (EST) at Talladega Superspeedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
Today the Sprint Cup Series will participate in 500 miles of mayhem at 200 miles per hour with the running of the Hellmann’s 500 at Talladega Superspeedway. Restrictor plate racing returns this afternoon with Chase implications on the line adding to the excitement of this exhilarating yet somewhat unpredictable style of racing. Currently just 7 points separates 11th place from 8th place in the Chase standings meaning we will have a fun day watching the Chase drama unfold at the most unpredictable venue in sports. Despite the volatility, we take this time to share a few thoughts on who we think could pull out the victory this afternoon at Talladega Superspeedway as we provide our 2016 Hellmann’s 500 race predictions!
Chase drivers have dominated the 2016 Chase thus far winning every race through 5 of the 10 scheduled races. However, today’s event at Talladega is one of the best chances for a non-Chase driver to score an upset victory. We all know the draft and pack racing is a great equalizer towards horsepower and equipment which are so important every weekend. Therefore, the opportunity for an victorious underdog cashing a big winning ticket is very plausible this afernoon. After all, these restrictor plate races are pretty popular betting races because the odds typically are much better than your average Sunday race and I am sure there will be many bettors eager to take some big chances this afternoon.
However before you go throw too much money on the long shots, keep in mind that these Talladega races have been won by a Chase driver in each of the last 2 years under this new Chase format. Not only that but Chase drivers have also dominated in laps led and average driver ratings at Talladega during that same stretch. So while I understand theoretically anything can happen at Talladega, do not be surprised if there is “no surprise” so to speak once the checkered flag waves this afternoon. So while I understand that my ranking of drivers could be easily wiped out in one big wreck today, I still would put confidence in the likes of Brad Keselowski and Denny Hamlin as the two favorites this afternoon.
Keselowski has been the king of Talladega since earning his first win here in 2009 in a part time ride for James Finch. Since that career breaking victory, Keselowski has added 3 more Talladega victories to his resume in just 15 career starts. Keselowski scored his 4th Talladega victory earlier this year in May and he also scored a very popular win here in 2014 in a must-win situation to advance in the Chase. The former Sprint Cup Champion is currently in 11th in the standings and in another dire situation that has remnants of the 2014 race. If you consider the fact the #2 also won the last restrictor plate race at Daytona in July, he has to be the favorite this afternoon. Denny Hamlin is another guy that many would put towards the top of the list along with Keselowski. Hamlin dominated Daytona Speedweeks earlier this year and has a recent 2014 Talladega win to his credit. The #11 car has been one of the most consistent frontrunners at these restrictor plate races for the last several years so expect him to be in the hunt once again this afternoon.
Outside of the top two guys, things get a little bit more hazy trying to predict who is the best of the rest. In fact, if you throw a few darts at a few drivers you may have just as good of a chance to win today’s race compared to trying to strategically handicap this event. I am not going to shy away from the fact that there is a lot more luck involved in the restrictor plate races than handicapping skill. However, I will say that guys like Ricky Stenhouse Jr, Austin Dillon, and Chase Elliott have my attention as those potential “upset” drivers. Elliott is in a must win situation and his 5th place showing here back in May is a confidence booster. Elliott’s Hendrick Motorsports teammates have already said they will try to work with the #24 today to help his chances. Surely his teammates are not going to give him the win but half the battle is being in position for the victory in the closing laps.
Both Austin Dillon and Ricky Stenhouse Jr are big underdogs but they have been surprisingly successful at Talladega. Only Denny Hamlin has a better average finish over Dillon since 2014 in restrictor plate races and Stenhouse has the best average finishing position over any driver with multiple starts at Talladega. Therefore if you want a few guys that will be getting very good odds but have some relative values, consider a few of those drivers to bring some value to your lineup. A few other notorious drivers that have restrictor plate talent that will be getting big odds include guys like Clint Bowyer, Tony Stewart, and Jamie McMurray if you are really wanting to gamble.
However as I stated before, I would not wander too far from the Chase drivers in this race. Guys like Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano, and Matt Kenseth should be names that could easily contend. It may be hard to get a lot of those names on your lineup and maintain a solid ROI. With that being said, H2H matchups are almost a lost cause for Talladega because of the inevitable big wrecks that can take out several drivers and other factors of plate racing that could easily jumble the finishing order. Therefore, do not be afraid to take an extra driver or two for the victory this afternoon and steer away from the H2H matchups to bring the most value towards your lineup. Good luck!
2016 Hellmann’s 500 Race Predictions
Denny Hamlin +950 (1.25 units): most dominate restrictor plate racer over the last few years, getting solid value today
Matt Kenseth +1200 (1.25 units): 2012 winner, led 39 laps in May race, great opportunity today with pretty comfortable spot in the points
Kevin Harvick +1400 (1 unit): 2010 winner, already advanced, time to go another one!
Austin Dillon +3000 (.5 unit): 3rd place in the May race, I am ready to see the #3 car back in victory lane at Talladega!
Kyle Larson +3000 (.5 unit): I know he does not have the greatest Talladega history, but several quality Daytona finishes and this is a lot of value for one of the top talents in the series
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +6500 (.5 unit): dark horse pick with surprising Talladega results, 4th in 1st practice if that means anything, value play
H2H Matchup
David Ragan -115 over Regan Smith (2 units)
