2016 Heads Up Georgia 250 Race Picks
NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Saturday February 27th, 1:46PM (EST) at Atlanta Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
This afternoon the Xfinity Series will kick off a NASCAR double header with the running of the Heads Up Georgia 250 at Atlanta Motor Speedway. Immediately afterwards the Camping World Truck Series will fire their engines in the Great Clips 200 to provide us with a full afternoon of racing in Atlanta. For the first race of the afternoon, we have a number of Sprint Cup Series veterans that will be participating with names like Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski, Kyle Larson, and Kevin Harvick. Harvick has won the last 3 straight Xfinity Series races at Atlanta and will be looking to make it 4 in a row this afternoon. Find out Harvick’s chances and more as we dive into our 2016 Heads Up Georgia 250 race picks preview!
Yesterday, the Xfinity Series participated in 3 practice sessions in preparation for this afternoon’s 250 mile event. By the final session, all of your big names were on top of the leaderboard with Erik Jones, Kyle Busch, Ty Dillon, Daniel Suarez, Kyle Larson, Brad Keselowski, Kevin Harvick, and Paul Menard rounding out the top 8 positions on speed. Jones actually led the 1st and final practice session in the #20 Hisense USA Toyota. For those that remember, the 19 year old youngster made his presence felt last year when he earned the opportunity for additional seat time due to Kyle Busch’s injury at Daytona. Jones made a splash early with a win in the Xfinity Series at Texas at just 18 years old. After 23 races in 2015, Jones should be in for a promising season in the JGR #20 Toyota and his track record at the 1.5 mile tracks along with his speed in practice should make him a dangerous threat for this afternoon’s Heads Up Georgia 250.
Obviously, the Sprint Cup guys are always the heavy favorites in these Xfinity Series races. With Harvick’s 3 straight wins and Kyle Busch’s unmatched dominance in this series, they are currently your two favorites for today’s race. Harvick has a knack for Atlanta especially on long runs. He just knows how to save his tires and get the most out of his car over time. I know a lot of people would have liked to have seen more speed out of the #88 in practice. However, I expect Harvick to be fine and to be really strong on the long runs just as he was here 1 year ago in route to his 3rd straight victory. The other heavy favorite in the #18 of Kyle Busch finished 2nd on speed in final practice. I don’t think anyone would be dumb enough to write off Rowdy this afternoon as he is always a threat. However, it’s hard to ignore the fact Busch is 0 for 11 at Atlanta in the Xfinity Series in terms of wins. To put things in perspective, Busch has a minimum of 2 wins at every track where he has at least 10 starts in this series. The only exceptions are Atlanta and Las Vegas where he is winless in both in Xfinity Series competition.
In fact, I am not sold on most of the Sprint Cup guys for today’s race. Keselowski is also winless at Atlanta in 6 starts and the #22 just appeared pretty average throughout Friday’s sessions. Kyle Larson looked pretty decent and I like his driving style for Atlanta. However, Larson has been over bet so much in this series and posted just 1 victory in 14 starts in 2015 which takes away from his value. Outside of Harvick, I think there is a good chance that one of the younger drivers could surprise this afternoon. Erik Jones leads the group of young guns but Ty Dillon and Daniel Suarez are close behind. Dillon posted a 3rd place finish in this race 1 year ago and he has vastly improved as a driver over the course of the last 12 months. Dillon had some speed in practice and I would not be surprised if he hangs around inside the top 5 this afternoon. Suarez is a guy that I am eager to see on the track later today. The #19 was stupid fast on 10 lap averages with an average speed of 178.745mph. Harvick was 2nd fastest on 10 lap averages at a 177.911mph and there was a considerable gap behind those two cars. I was personally high on Suarez at the end of 2015 as he was getting very close to getting his first victory. I still stand by that notion as I feel he will get a win early this year in either the Xfinity or Camping World Truck Series. The main question is how long will it take? Suarez was best on the 1.5 mile tracks in 2015 and if Friday’s sessions were any indicator then he should be pretty sporty this afternoon as well.
2016 Heads Up 250 Race Picks
Erik Jones +500 (1.5 units): fastest in practice 1 and 3, showed a lot of strength on 1.5 mile tracks in 2015, starting outside pole
Daniel Suarez +1800 (1 unit): value play, great odds and extremely fast 10 lap average. Starting 3rd
Parlay
Kevin Harvick +245 wins Heads Up Georgia 250
Slot 2 – Open
Risking 1.5 units to win: TBD
H2H Matchups
Kevin Harvick -105 over Brad Keselowski (2 units)
