2016 GoBowling.com 400 Race Predictions
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Saturday May 7th, 7:47PM (EST) at Kansas Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
After a wild race last Sunday at Talladega that was filled with wrecks, the Sprint Cup Series returns for some Saturday night action when the green flag is waved later this evening for the GoBowling.com 400. If last night’s Truck Series race was also any indicator of the action that we may see tonight, then we should be on the verge of witnessing yet another exciting and action packed event. As we prepare for 267 laps of racing, we take this time to provide our full race preview and 2016 GoBowling.com 400 race predictions!
Earlier this week, we broke down several drivers to watch in our 2016 GoBowling.com 400 Betting Odds Preview. Among the drivers that we discussed in the favorites category between Jimmie Johnson, Joey Logano, and Kyle Busch, I would consider Joey Logano the best of the bunch thus far this weekend throughout practices. Logano, who has won 2 of the last 3 races at Kansas, posted the 6th fastest 10 lap average in Happy Hour and appears poised for another strong run tonight. Jimmie Johnson also looked pretty strong from a practices standpoint and has to be considered given his Kansas resume.
However those “favorites” may be chasing the Joe Gibbs Racing stable. All of the JGR cars have looked very strong throughout the weekend. As you may already know, JGR drivers won the last 4 races before Talladega thanks to back to back wins from Kyle Busch and most recently Carl Edwards. All 4 of the JGR cars have looked very solid this weekend and they appear to have the advantage going into tonight’s race. Specifically Edwards and Matt Kenseth have looked the strongest thus far in race trim. Kenseth actually holds two Kansas victories with the most recent coming in 2013. At this time, I expect Kenseth to be the best of the JGR group but would consider all 4 drivers a threat to win tonight’s race.
Also if you are going to consider the JGR brigade, then you may want to throw Martin Truex Jr into the mix. The #78 team of Furniture Row Racing has an alliance with JGR that allows them to use much of the same equipment. Truex dominated this race last spring by leading 95 laps but only managed a 9th place finish. Truex has sported one of the best cars throughout practices and finished with the fastest lap in Happy Hour. Truex later put the #78 car on the pole in qualifying and he is started to become a popular pick to win tonight’s race. I am sure the #78 will be one of the fastest cars once the race begins but they have to prove they can finish things as well.
If things get as wild as they did in last night’s Truck Series race that was highlighted by numerous wrecks and drivers sliding all over the place, then we may see a lot of “comers and goers” as it is often said. Judging by last October’s race under the new aero package, things could get dicey if there is a lot of close racing. It will be interesting to see if we get several long green flag runs or if we have several restarts towards the end of the race which could make things very unpredictable. If we do get a lot of crazy action tonight, I believe a few drivers could sneak into the picture and possibly threaten the competition.
The main guy I believe could play that role will be the driver of the #24 in Chase Elliott. I mentioned Elliott’s knack for the 1.5 mile tracks in our early preview and I still believe he will race well tonight despite a pair of mediocre practice sessions. Elliott has never been great in practice this season but he always runs really well. I expect that to be the case again tonight and he will be a guy to watch over long runs. Another guy that I think has flown under the radar that could contend tonight is Kurt Busch. The elder Busch was right there with the JGR guys with the 3rd best 10 lap average in final practice. Busch has solid runs at Kansas at both stops in 2015 and I think he is a guy that could have another quality run this evening.
2016 GoBowling.com 400 Race Predictions
Joey Logano +900 (1.25 units): won 2 of the last 3 races, 3rd place finish at Texas, starting 14th
Denny Hamlin +1600 (1 unit): 2012 winner, posted 2nd place finish last October, 2nd fastest in final practice, starting 3rd
Chase Elliott +3300 (.5 unit): value play, rookie keeps impressing on the 1.5 mile tracks
Two Team Parlays
Matt Kenseth +450 wins GoBowling.com 400
Greg Biffle -110 over Paul Menard
Risking 1.25 units to win: +1187
Jimmie Johnson +625 wins GoBowling.com 400
Kyle Larson -115 over Kasey Kahne
Risking 1 unit to win: +1255
H2H Matchups
Joey Logano -125 over Kevin Harvick (2 units)
Austin Dillon -125 over Jamie McMurray (2 units)
Aric Almirola -130 over AJ Allmendinger (2 units)
Kurt Busch +100 over Brad Keselowski (1 unit)
