2016 Ford Ecoboost 400 Race Predictions

2016 Ford Ecoboost 400 Race Predictions
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday November 20th, 3:01PM (EST) at Homestead-Miami Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

After 35 previous weekends of racing in the Sprint Cup Series, everything comes down to tomorrow’s season finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway as we anticipate the running of the Ford Ecoboost 400. The storylines could not be any bigger as 4 drivers fight for the Sprint Cup Championship including Jimmie Johnson who is seeking an unprecedented 7th championship that would place him on top of NASCAR’s holy mountain alongside Richard Petty and Dale Earnhardt. So far this weekend we have seen absolutely incredible racing at Homestead in NASCAR’s lower series and we will get to cap it off with a Sprint Cup Series Title tomorrow after just 400 miles of racing. Take a look as we preview tomorrow’s season finale and provide our 2016 Ford Ecoboost 400 race predictions!

The race for the championship will be decided between Jimmie Johnson, Carl Edwards, Kyle Busch, and Joey Logano tomorrow afternoon. Interestingly, the JGR drivers of Carl Edwards and Kyle Busch are the only two guys that have scored prior wins at Homestead. Edwards has scored two victories at Homestead and owns the 2nd best average finish among active drivers behind only Kevin Harvick. It may be somewhat surprising that the 6 time champ Jimmie Johnson does not have a win in Miami. Truth be told, Johnson has never had to win at Homestead in his prior routes to a championship in the Sprint Cup Chase. However, times have changed with this new Chase format and the last two championship winners (Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch) have clinched their title with victories at Homestead-Miami Speedway. I would not be surprised at all if tomorrow’s championship winner has to score a victory yet again therefore the #48 team needs to end their winless streak in Miami if the elusive number 7 is going to be captured.

Outside of the championship picture, let’s get down to the pure handicapping side of this race. I have mentioned in both of my prior previews for the Truck and Xfinity Series’ that Homestead is a racetrack that is unlike other 1.5 mile tracks. It has a unique shape that represents more of an oval with two different corners at both ends of the track along with progressive banking in the corners the provide electrifying side by side racing. In fact, the fastest groove will likely be right against the wall as drivers go deep into green flag runs and we will definitely see a few drivers get into the wall as they try to flirt with the fastest line around the track. As stated in my prior previews for Homestead, even though this track is unlike other 1.5 mile tracks we can still look at Texas Motor Speedway for comparison factors. Despite differences in shape, Homestead and Texas have very similar surfaces and will be racing the same Goodyear tire compounds that we seen just two weeks ago at Texas in a race that was won by Carl Edwards.

I think you can look at that Texas race from two weeks ago and get a pretty decent idea of what drivers should run well. From all my other handicapping angles that I have put together, I believe Edwards is the best of the championship contenders and should contend for the victory tomorrow. I am not just backing the #19 because of their win at Texas but also for the fact of Cousin Carl’s great resume at Homestead along with the fact that he put together some really strong practice speeds on Saturday. I thought Edwards had the edge over the #48, followed by a small gap over the #18, followed by the #22 from the championship perspective. I was rather surprised at how much Logano struggled on speed especially on the longer runs but I am sure the #22 team will throw some big changes at the car overnight.

Logano should be able to lean on his teammate Brad Keselowski for help. I thought the #2 car stood out above everyone in terms of long run speed. I have been rather surprised at how much Keselowski has flown under the radar this weekend. He may have posted some sub-par single lap speeds in Saturday’s practices but he was very fast in race trim. Keselowski has posted back to back 3rd place finishes at Homestead in the last two years and I believe he has a great shot tomorrow. Of course any time we stop at a 1.5 mile surface, it only feels right to mention Martin Truex Jr. Truex has been a threat on all the 1.5 mile tracks this year and he will obviously start with great track position tomorrow from the 6th starting position. From a practices standpoint, I thought the #78 was just a tick off but I would not be surprised to see Truex lead some laps tomorrow and hang around the front of the field.

Another driver that I feel like will sneak under the radar tomorrow with all the championship talk is Kyle Larson. Larson’s driving style is a perfect match for Homestead and he posted a 5th place finish in this race one year ago. Larson’s practice speeds were consistently fastest among all drivers on Saturday. Therefore, I think the #42 has some dark horse value. One other driver that I have not mentioned yet is pole sitter Kevin Harvick. I have to bring up Harvick because he has been rock solid throughout practices and has a rock solid Homestead resume that features a win plus a runner-up finish in the last two years. Harvick’s car did not show much fall off speed and that will be a big benefactor considering how important tire wear is at Homestead.

I know I have tried to cover most of the important names that will be competing tomorrow but it is impossible to cover everyone. Denny Hamlin and Matt Kenseth showed considerable fall off after about 7 laps so I am not putting those drivers at the top of my list. In summary, the #42 and the #4 appeared to have the most raw speed undoubtedly propelled by their extreme rim riding talents in the cockpit. However after a handful of laps, both the #19 and #2 will be very tough on long run speed. I would list those 4 drivers at the top of the list heading into Sunday. As always, good luck!

2016 Ford Ecoboost 400 Race Predictions

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Kyle Larson +800 (1.25 units): easily fastest times at end of Happy Hour, 5th place finish last spring, love his driving style for this track
Brad Keselowski +1000 (1.25 units): finished 3rd in last two Homestead starts, very strong on long run speed, starting 2nd
Chase Elliott +1200 (1.25 units): 4th at Texas under same tire compound, finished in Top 5 in both of Saturday practices, starting 5th

Two Team Parlay

Kevin Harvick/Carl Edwards +250 wins Ford Ecoboost 400
Clint Bowyer +140 over Trevor Bayne
Risking 1.5 units to win: +1110

H2H Matchups and Props

Brad Keselowski -130 over Matt Kenseth (4 units)
Chase Elliott +105 over Denny Hamlin (3 units)
Clint Bowyer +140 over Trevor Bayne (3 units)
Austin Dillon -115 over Kurt Busch (3 units)
Kyle Larson -170 over Denny Hamlin (2 units)
Carl Edwards -115 over Jimmie Johnson (2 units)
Martin Truex Jr -115 over Joey Logano (2 units)
Ryan Newman +615 finishes Top 5 (1 unit)
Ryan Newman +150 wins Group D (Dillon, McMurray, Stewart) (2 units)
Austin Dillon +285 wins Group D (Newman, McMurray, Stewart) (2 units)