2016 Ford Ecoboost 300 Race Predictions

2016 Ford Ecoboost 300 Race Predictions
NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Saturday November 19th, 3:46PM (EST) at Homestead-Miami Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

The Xfinity Series Championship will be determined this afternoon in just 300 miles as we anticipate the running of the Ford Ecoboost 300. Currently Elliott Sadler, Justin Allgaier, Daniel Suarez, and Erik Jones are the remaining drivers still standing in the Xfinity Series Chase in what will play out as a unique JGR vs. JR Motorsports battle for the crown this afternoon. However outside of the Chase picture, there will be several prestigious names participating this afternoon with hopes to take home the checkered flag. Take a look as we provide our thoughts and our 2016 Ford Ecoboost 300 race predictions for the Xfinity Series season finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway!

Among the names that will be competing this afternoon alongside the Xfinity Series regulars include guys like Ryan Blaney, Alex Bowman, Austin Dillon, and Kyle Larson. All of those guys are capable of winning to some extent but this race is possibly the most evenly competitive field that we have seen in the Xfinity Series since the Dover race in early October. Therefore while the Xfinity Series regulars typically take a backseat in terms of their probability of winning against the Sprint Cup guys in these races; I would say their chances are pretty decent this afternoon especially for guys like Elliott Sadler and Erik Jones who have proven they can race with the cream of the crop this year.

For those of you that may not be as familiar with Homestead-Miami Speedway, let me bring you up to speed real quickly. Homestead is a 1.5 mile surface that has progressive banking in the turns that provides great multi-groove racing. The track is rather unique compared to other 1.5 mile tracks in shape and it is typically considered a “drivers” race track. I mentioned in the Truck Series Ford Ecoboost 200 preview that I like to compare Homestead with Texas most relatively for handicapping reasons. Even though both tracks present different driving styles, the actual surface of both tracks are very similar and typically rely on similar setup options from teams. Therefore, do not be afraid to look back at both Xfinity Series races at Texas this season for some extra data that may be useful this afternoon. It worked pretty good for us in the Truck Series last night so let’s keep it rolling.

However it does not take much data to concede to the fact that Kyle Larson will likely be the guy to beat once the green flag waves today. Larson swept both practices on Friday with the fastest lap in both sessions and he won at Texas just two weeks ago for that comparison factor I alluded to a moment ago. Of course that may not be surprising if you consider Larson’s statistics at Homestead. In just 3 starts, he has finished 2nd, 3rd, and 1st with his win coming last year in the Ford Ecoboost 300. Therefore Homestead is track that really plays towards Larson’s rim riding driving style and he has the car that will compete for the victory again today.

I don’t think anyone would question if Larson can get the job done today. Perhaps the only question is who can give Larson the best competition and possibly score an upset this afternoon? I know arguments could potentially be made for several drivers but realistically I give Ryan Blaney and Erik Jones the nod for the only guys that could potentially beat Larson in true race conditions as long as the #42 avoids any unforeseen issues. Both Blaney and Jones have been good at Homestead in previous stops. Jones finished 3rd in his only start last year while Blaney has posted finishes of 8th, 4th, and 5th here in 3 starts. The #20 and #22 cars were both very solid at Texas under the same tire compound and I would expect nothing less from both teams again this afternoon. Obviously I would give the #20 the edge considering the #22 team is still searching for their first win this season. However, it is also worth noting that the #22 team has made vast gains on the 1.5 mile tracks in their last few appearances.

Outside of those guys, I would also expect quality efforts from Daniel Suarez and Elliott Sadler. I would actually put Suarez in the dark horse consideration bracket after some really strong practices on Friday. Suarez has an aggressive driving style that is suitable for a place like Homestead and he proved that last year with a 6th place showing in his first start in Miami. I am not sure if Suarez will have enough to beat the likes of Larson, Jones, and Blaney but I do think the #19 has some value especially in H2H situations. I was also going to put Elliott Sadler into my H2H category due to his seemingly breakout success during the 2nd part of this year especially on the 1.5 mile surfaces. However, Sadler has not been that strong at Homestead throughout his career. He has just 1 top 5 finish in 9 career starts coming all the way back in 1996 and interestingly he has finished worse than his starting position in 7 of his last 8 races. Therefore, I may stay away from the #1 car in this one despite some really impressive runs on the 1.5 mile tracks for the entire 2nd half of the season.

2016 Ford Ecoboost 300 Race Predictions

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*More picks posted closer to race time

Daniel Suarez +550 (1.5 units): finished no worse than 5th in last 7 races, has been one of the strongest cars throughout the weekend, starting on pole
Ryan Blaney +850 (1.5 units): early forums pick, easily among top 3 cars in practices, top 5 finishes in last two Homestead starts, looking for first win for the #22 team this year

Two Team Parlay

William Bryon +245 wins Ford Ecoboost 200 (win)
Kyle Larson +100 wins Ford Ecoboost 300
Risking 1.5 units to win: +885

H2H Matchups

Elliott Sadler -140 over Justin Allgaier (3 units)
Daniel Suarez –125 over Austin Dillon (3 units)
Brennan Poole –115 over Blake Koch (2 units)

Darrell Wallace Jr +100 over Aric Almirola (1 unit)