2016 Ford Ecoboost 200 Race Predictions

2016 Ford Ecoboost 200 Race Predictions
NASCAR Camping World Truck Series Betting Preview
Friday November 18th, 8:18PM (EST) at Homestead-Miami Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

The Camping World Truck Series Championship will be decided tonight at the Homestead-Miami Speedway with the running of the Ford Ecoboost 200. Currently, the race for the championship will be decided between Johnny Sauter, Matt Crafton, Christopher Bell, and Timothy Peters. However, there are several more drivers that will have a great opportunity to capture the victory tonight including favorites like William Byron and Kyle Larson. As we anticipated an exciting night of racing, we take this time to provide our 2016 Ford Ecoboost 200 race predictions!

Currently William Byron is the favorite to win tonight’s race. He is actually a bigger favorite than Sprint Cup Series driver Kyle Larson who will be making his 3rd Truck Series start of the year. Larson won the dirt race at Eldora earlier this year and has 1 other victory in his 12 career starts. Larson is typically one of the favorites any time he suits up in the lower series. Larson was pretty solid in practices earlier today and posted the 2nd fastest lap in the first practice session. Even though the Toyotas trucks have shown the most raw speed this weekend, Larson is still a big threat on pure driving talent alone.

Speaking of those Toyotas, William Byron has emerged as the clear favorite for tonight’s race after sweeping all 3 sessions earlier today in both practice sessions and by winning the pole for the Ford Ecoboost 200. All of the Kyle Busch Motorsports trucks have shown tremendous speed with both Daniel Suarez and Christopher Bell showing solid speed throughout today’s events. However, Byron has clearly been the best of the group. Remember if not for a blown engine last week at Phoenix, this rookie would also be racing for the championship this evening and I believe he has a great opportunity to add to his 6 victories in what has been a record season.

If you are looking for other drivers to consider for tonight’s race, then you may want to look into the trucks that ran well at Texas two weeks ago. I do not like looking at historical Homestead-Miami speedway stats when handicapping these races. The main reason is that each series only makes one stop at Homestead each year and so much changes in that time period. Sure, you can get some analytical trends on the veterans that have raced her multiple times. However, I like to look at more current data. Texas Motor Speedway is a great comparison for Homestead due to the similar surface and racing tire that will be used in tonight’s race. The tracks have some differences in shape and attributes but setups will be very similar nevertheless.

So if we compare the results from Texas, Spencer Gallagher had his best performance of the season by leading 88 laps to bring home a 7th place finish. Johnny Sauter and Daniel Hemric were arguably the best trucks throughout the night. Hemric has been great on the 1.5 mile tracks all year with top 3 finishes in the last 5 tracks of similar size. Hemric was off a bit in practice and posted a poor qualifying effort so his chances may not be as good tonight. However, I would be shocked if he did not race his way into the top 10 to potentially flirt with another top 5. Sauter won at Texas by rallying late in the race and he actually finished 3rd at Texas earlier in the year. Sauter was fast in the first practice before speeds got scrambled in the final practice with mock qualifying runs. Sauter did not have a good qualifying effort but the #21 team has been so strong that I cannot count that group out.

I think Hemric and Sauter present some potential strong H2H value due to their qualifying positions. Expect both drivers to race their way forward tonight. Overall I believe Byron and Larson have the best chances to score the victory tonight. If I had to go with a dark horse selection, I would look towards the likes of Cole Custer and Christopher Bell. Bell has shown a lot of raw speed and he had an excellent run at Texas before a late tire rub hindered his finishing position. Custer on the other hand had his most impressive round of sessions on an oval this season earlier today. I feel like the #00 has not got much attention heading into tonight’s race and that makes him a solid dark horse threat with good odds this evening.

2016 Ford Ecoboost 200 Race Predictions

Looking for new betting options?

Johnny Sauter +750 (1.5 units): early forums pick, team did not practice very well but has won 2 of the last 3 including Texas, should race well
Cole Custer +1300 (1.25 units): dark horse pick, very good practice sessions, starting 3rd with excellent odds
Daniel Hemric +1400 (1.25 units): another early forums pick, top 3 finishes in last 5 1.5 mile tracks, was not very strong in practices, hoping for improvement

Two Team Parlay

William Bryon +245 wins Ford Ecoboost 200
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1.5 units to win: TBD

H2H Matchups

Johnny Sauter -130 over Timothy Peters (5 units)
William Byron -170 over Matt Crafton (3 units)