2016 Food City 500 Race Predictions

2016 Food City 500 Race Predictions
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday April 17th, 1:13PM (EST) at Bristol Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

This afternoon 40 cars will roar to life at Thunder Valley with the running of the Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway. The green flag is scheduled to wave at 1:13PM EST with 500 laps of action on the books at one of the most exciting tracks on circuit. Kyle Busch enters today’s race having won the last two Sprint Cup Series races at Martinsville and Texas. Busch, along with older brother Kurt, currently lead all active drivers with 5 wins at Bristol in the Cup Series. Therefore, Busch will be a pretty heavy favorite to win his 3rd in a row. However, anything can happen at Bristol especially with tough passing conditions meaning track position will be extremely important this afternoon. Find out our thoughts on today’s race as we provide our 2016 Food City 500 race predictions!

From a practice standpoint, Kyle Busch definitely appeared to have one of the fastest cars throughout the weekend. The #18 was fastest in the first practice on Saturday, posted the fastest 10 lap average in that session, and then backed it up by posting the 2nd best 10 lap average in Happy Hour. Busch will also have the luxury of starting up towards the front after a 5th place qualifying effort which will help his chances. Ironically, this race has been won from the 5th place starting position in 4 of the last 8 races and Busch will be looking to accomplish that feat again to earn his first trip to victory lane in the Sprint Cup Series since 2011.

While many will consider Busch the man to beat, it has actually been Joey Logano and Matt Kenseth that have visited victory lane most often in recent years. Both Kenseth and Logano have won 2 of the last 5 races. Logano has actually won 2 of the last 3 races in the IRWIN Tools Night Race. Neither driver looked overly impressive in practices but I do not put too much emphasis on practice speeds at a place like Bristol. Rather their history at this track speaks volumes and both guys will be rolling off from the top 3 starting spots which means they should contend again this afternoon.

If you look at qualifying, all 4 of the Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas will be starting in the top 5. Without any questions, they are the cars to beat going in to today’s race especially considering each driver’s track history. Carl Edwards won his 2nd straight pole in recent weeks and he has arguably been the best driver at Bristol since the repave in 2007 with 3 victories. For fantasy purposes, Edwards also leads all drivers with a 109.9 average driver rating over the last 4 races as well. The other JGR guy that we have yet to mention is Denny Hamlin. Hamlin has 1 Bristol win to his credit coming back in the night race in 2012 but for the most part has been fairly mediocre at the half-mile bullring. However, the #11 car looked really good in both of yesterday’s practices and I think he will have something for the competition later this afternoon.

Two other guys that I believe are in striking distance going into today’s race are Jimmie Johnson and Brad Keselowski. I know Bristol has not been Johnson’s best track throughout his career in terms of wins (just 1 victory in 28 starts). However, Johnson has finished inside the top 5 in the last 3 races with finishes of 4th, 2nd, and 4th. After a pair of solid practices on Saturday, I believe the #48 will be in the mix again. Additionally, I like Brad Keselowski with some potential sleeper value. Keselowski has 2 wins at Bristol in just 12 career starts. If you throw out the 35th place finish in this race last year, Keselowski would have the highest driver rating in the last 4 races. The #2 looked pretty solid in race trim so I would keep them on you radar for this afternoon.

If you are looking for even bigger sleepers, consider guys like Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott. I think Elliott has to be a sleeper every week due to the way he has impressed thus far in his rookie year and I believe he will win a race before the year is up. The #24 looked strong in practices and I believe Elliott has what it takes to keep this car inside the top 10 all afternoon. Perhaps if the #24 team can put their selves in position for a win like they did last week in Texas, then Elliott could be the surprise story of the afternoon.

At 40-1 odds, I think Kyle Larson has to be a dark horse. Larson’s driving style is perfect for Bristol as we saw yesterday in the Xfinity Series race when he outdrove Kyle Busch at his best track for the better half of the closing laps. Larson had enough speed in practice yesterday to prove that he can contend this week. He laid down the fastest 10 lap average in Happy Hour and he has the aggressiveness
to make things happen this afternoon. I would definitely look at both the young drivers of Elliott and Larson to favor in H2H match-ups as I believe they will both run really well this afternoon.

2016 Food City 500 Race Picks

Jimmie Johnson +950 (1.25 units): living by the phrase “don’t count out the #48”, car looked good in practices, lot of value for the guy that is a threat to win everywhere
Brad Keselowski +1250 (1.25 units): two-time Bristol winner, solid with long run speed in practices, starting 12th
Kyle Larson +4000 (1 unit): dark horse pick, will make moves to gain track position, fastest 10 lap average in final practice, starting 25th

Two Team Parlay

Carl Edwards/Joey Logano +375 wins Food City 500
Kurt Busch +140 over Martin Truex Jr
Risking 1.5 units to win: +1560

Kyle Busch +325 wins Food City 500
Kyle Larson +500 finishes Top 5
Risking .5 units to win: +1225

H2H Matchups and Props

Ryan Newman -120 over Jamie McMurray (3 units)
Joey Logano -125 over Kevin Harvick (2 units)
Clint Bowyer +110 over Ty Dillon (2 units)
Kyle Larson +335 wins Group C (Dillon, Kahne, McMurray, and Newman)

Kyle Larson Top 3 +1250 (.5 unit)
Chase Elliot Top 3 +900 (.5 unit)
Brad Keselowski Top 3 +400 (.5 unit)
Carl Edwards Top 3 +245 (1 unit)