2016 Fitzgerald Glider Kits 300 Race Predictions
NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Saturday April 16th, 12:46PM (EST) at Bristol Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
NASCAR’s Xfinity Series will go racing at Thunder Valley in a few short hours with the running of the Fitzgerald Glider Kits 300. Today’s field will be boast one of the most talented lineups of the season in the Xfinity Series will several of the biggest stars from the Sprint Cup Series in action. Kyle Busch has swept all of NASCAR’s top 3 touring series in the last week with sweeps at Martinsville in the Trucks and Cup Series followed by another sweep last week at Texas both the Xfinity and Cup Series’. Today Busch looks to keep his streak alive at his best track where he has posted 17 wins across all 3 touring series. Find out our thoughts and if anyone can stop Busch’s dominance as we provide our 2016 Fitzgerald Glider Kits 300 race predictions!
Despite the star studded cast of drivers including Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano, Austin Dillon, Kyle Larson, and others in today’s race, Busch is still the overwhelming favorite to capture the checkers. In fact, Busch is currently listed at negative -130 odds to win the Fitzgerald Glider Kits 300 so odds makers are not taking any chances despite the talent in today’s field. Who could blame them? Busch has been incredible in recent weeks throughout all series and he holds more wins at Bristol in the Xfinity Series (8) than any other driver in history. To make matters more menacing for the competition, Busch’s #18 NOS Energy Drink Toyota paced the field in final practice with the best 10 lap average proving yet again he will be the guy to beat once the green flag waves.
So who could potentially knock Busch off his throne? Obviously Kevin Harvick and Joey Logano are your most obvious choices. Kevin Harvick has 5 victories at Bristol in the Xfinity Series while Logano has won his last two Bristol starts (2015 and 2012). However, one thing that scares me about Harvick is that he has not won since 2009 at Bristol and has been pretty mediocre in the JR Motorsports equipment here in recent years with just 1 finish better than 5th in his last 8 starts. Harvick has been most dangerous on the 1.5 mile tracks in this series in recent years rather than the short tracks. Logano was one of the guys to watch heading into the weekend and I still believe he will run well. However, the #22 team did struggle a bit throughout practices on Friday as they were pretty far down the speed charts so it will be interesting to see if they have made the right adjustments this afternoon.
Instead the guy that I really like this afternoon rather than the obvious choices of Logano and Harvick is the guy driving the #42 in Kyle Larson. Larson was right in the mix with Busch on speed in practice and he has been very strong at Bristol throughout his young career. In 5 Bristol starts in the Xfinity Series, Larson has posted 4 top 5 finishes including 3 runner-up finishes. All 3 of Larson’s runner-up finishes have been to Busch and I think today he will have a shot to challenge the #18. The only two other drivers I would throw in the picture to battle for the win that I have not mentioned would be Austin Dillon and Erik Jones. Dillon has been decent here and has a couple top 5 finishes to his credit. Jones has just two starts with a best finish of 4th. I thought the #20 of Jones looked really solid in practice which he usually does. Jones has been really close on a number of occasions this year but has fallen short to Busch. I think Jones has some value from an odd’s standpoint but he will have his work cut out for him in today’s field.
If you are looking for a few sleepers or guys to play in H2H match-ups, consider putting the #19 of Daniel Suarez at the top of your list. Suarez displayed his short track talents at Bristol last year with top 5 finishes in both Bristol races including a runner-up finish in this race one year ago. Suarez looked pretty solid in practices and I think he will be in-line for another quality finish this afternoon. Another guy I believe has sleeper status to bring him value in match-ups is Justin Allgaier. Allgaier is a former Bristol Xfinity Series winner coming back in 2010 and has a history of running pretty decent in Thunder Valley. More importantly Allgaier has been running really well for JR Motorsports in recent weeks in the #7 car with top 10 finishes in every race since Daytona. I believe Allgaier and this team are doing good things which will continue to show later this afternoon!
2016 Fitzgerald Glider Kits 300 Race Predictions
Kyle Larson +575 (2 units): early forums pick, 3 runner-up finishes in 5 Bristol starts, looked strong in practices, starting 2nd
Daniel Suarez +1200 (1 unit): runner-up in this race last year, dark horse pick with great odds, may benefit from starting outside of a Heat race 2
H2H Match-ups
Kyle Busch +110 wins Fitzgerald Glider Kits 300
Slot 2 – Open for Food City 500
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD
H2H Match-ups
Erik Jones -145 over Austin Dillon (2 units)
Daniel Suarez +100 over Austin Dillon (2 units)
Brendan Gaughan -125 over Aric Almirola (2 units)
