2016 FireKeepers Casino 400 Race Predictions

2016 FireKeepers Casino 400 Race Predictions
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday June 12th, 1:20PM (EST) at Michigan International Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

For NASCAR fans, today’s FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan International Speedway should be one of the most interesting races of the season. Today’s race will debut a new aero package that highlights changes to the front splitter and rear spoiler to create lower downforce. The results have produced ludicrous speeds that have topped over 215 miles per hour down the front stretch at Michigan throughout practice sessions. NASCAR invoked the new aero package in hopes to produce more passing at Michigan but the speeds have been surprising. So as you can imagine, drivers are going to have less control with the lower downforce and the crazy speeds we will see today are bound to make things exciting. Follow us as we provide our full race preview and 2016 FireKeepers Casino 400 race predictions!

Of course today’s new aero package, provokes a lot of uncertainty about how the race will unfold over the course of 400 miles. Michigan is already one of the most unpredictable circuits on NASCAR’s schedule because of all the strategy that goes along with this 2 mile race track. In fact, we have seen 6 different race winners in the last 6 races at Michigan and 10 different race winners in the last 11 races. Combine the normal Michigan elements along with a new rules package and things are even more unpredictable. The good news is that current betting odds are pretty decent for most drivers across the board which gives us the opportunity to create a lineup that still has solid return value.

As far as what we can expect this afternoon, I believe the #2 of Brad Keselowski and the #78 of Martin Truex Jr may have the most raw speed going into today’s race. Truex will be starting from the outside pole position beside Joey Logano but I would not be surprised to see him lead much of the early laps. Truex has had a wave of momentum over the last several weeks and they have unloaded another really fast Toyota. The #78 was towards the top of the speed charts throughout every session this weekend and he also posted the best 10 lap average in final practice. Truex finished 3rd in both Michigan races last year and it is obvious that he has another car that contend again. Keselowski was another driver that really stood out in terms of speed. The #2 car was right behind Truex with the 2nd best 10 lap average and that car has seemingly improved with each practice so far this weekend. Crew chief Paul Wolfe is one of the best in the garage at adapting to new rules changes and I really like the #2 team for the reason this afternoon.

I also thought the Hendrick Motorsports cars have looked really strong this weekend especially the #88 of Dale Earnhardt Jr and the #48 of Jimmie Johnson. Both Johnson and Earnhardt are former Michigan winners. Earnhardt actually has two Michigan wins to his credit and this is a place where he has historically performed well. Earnhardt posted a runner-up finish in this race 1 year ago and I believe he can contend again today despite having to start deep in the field. The #88 car came to life after a few changes during the first practice on Saturday and it looked really strong in final practice. Johnson posted nearly identical laps time as Earnhardt in race trim. I think you have to give the #48 some strong consideration this afternoon as they are another team that usually strives in new rules packages with crew chief Chad Knaus. Also, it is worth mentioning that Johnson won on the 2 mile Auto Club Speedway earlier this year.

From a historical standpoint, I don’t think you can count out the cars driven by Kevin Harvick and Carl Edwards. Harvick, a 2010 Michigan winner, has an incredible streak going with 5 runner-up finishes in the last 6 starts at Michigan. The #4 has not shown the raw speed that they have flexed in previous years but the team seemed optimistic that they would race well after Saturday’s sessions. Edwards is another driver that I believe comes into play this afternoon. Edwards leads all drivers with a 9.65 average finishing position throughout his 23 career starts. Edwards has two wins at Michigan coming in 2007 and 2008. From 2012 to 2014, Edwards failed to find a way to contend throughout any of his Michigan starts but I attribute that factor to the struggles at Roush-Fenway Racing. Last year Edwards led 41 laps in this race and also ran well in the August race at Michigan. On Saturday, Edwards posted the fastest lap in practice 2 and was 3rd best in 10 lap averages. I do not believe Edwards has received the attention he deserves heading into today’s race but I believe he will be a contender as well.

There are several other drivers that I imagine will also run well today. Joey Logano and the rest of the JGR brigade are obvious threats. However, there are so many drivers that could sneak into the picture by the time this day is over. On back through the pack, I expect the young guys to run well also. Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, and Ryan Blaney have all been fast at points throughout the weekend. Elliott proved again last week that he is going to be special. The rookie led the most laps in his first visit to Pocono and ended up with a strong 4th place finish. Elliott has been running extremely well in recent weeks and has only finished outside the top 10 once since the first week in April. Elliott just keeps finding ways to get strong finishes and I expect another solid run from that team today.

2016 FireKeepers Casino 400 Race Predictions

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Martin Truex Jr +850 (1. 25 units): finished 3rd in both 2015 races, fastest 10 lap averages, starting 2nd
Carl Edwards +1000 (1.25 units): two-time Michigan winner, best average finishing position among active drivers, 4th best 10 lap average in final practice
Dale Earnhardt Jr +1150 (1.25 units): two-time Michigan winner, finished runner-up in this race last year, car came to life on Saturday

Two Team Parlays

Brad Keselowski +600 wins FireKeepers Casino 400
Paul Menard +110 over Jamie McMurray
Risking 1.25 units to win: +1712

Jimmie Johnson +700 wins FireKeepers Casino 400
Brad Keselowski +105 over Joey Logano
Risking .5 unit to win: +770

H2H Matchups and Props

Dale Earnhardt Jr -130 over Denny Hamlin (3 units)
Brad Keselowski +105 over Joey Logano (3 units)
Austin Dillon -115 over Kasey Kahne (2 units)
Brad Keselowski +260 finishes Top 3 (1 unit)
Chase Elliott +700 finishes Top 3 (1 unit)