2016 Duck Commander 500 Race Predictions
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Saturday April 9th, 7:46PM (EST) at Texas Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
All eyes will be on Texas Motor Speedway tonight as the Sprint Cup Series goes night racing with the running of the Duck Commander 500. Green flag is scheduled to wave at 7:46PM EST with 334 laps on the books. Among the storylines for tonight’s race includes Jimmie Johnson quest for a 4th straight Texas Motor Speedway victory. Johnson has put the #48 car in victory lane in each of the last 3 trips to Texas and has actually won 4 of the last 5 races. If you consider how strong Johnson has been on the 1.5 mile layouts thus far this year, he is a big threat to win once again tonight. Find out our thoughts on Johnson and more as we provide our 2016 Duck Commander 500 race predictions!
Outside of the fact Johnson has won the last 3 straight races at Texas, you also have to look at what he has done on the 1.5 mile tracks already this season. He won at Atlanta which is very similar in layout to Texas, finished 3rd at Las Vegas, and won on the 2 mile oval at Fontana. Needless to say, the #48 team has dominated on these similar surfaces on race day. On Friday, Johnson’s #48 car was pretty solid in race trim and with a few more adjustments they should be in the hunt when the green flag drops.
From a pure practice standpoint, I believe that Martin Truex Jr and Brad Keselowski had the best showings from Thursday to Friday. Truex actually swept both practices with the fastest speeds and Keselowski finished 2nd and 3rd respectively. I had Keselowski on my “watch” list, so to speak, coming into the weekend if you happened to read my fantasy preview. Keselowski has led more laps and has posted a better driver rating than all drivers over the last 4 races including Jimmie Johnson. In the last 3 races, Keselowski has finished 3rd, 5th, and 2nd. He has led laps in each of the last 5 races at Texas and I believe he is one of the biggest contenders going into tonight’s race. Truex on the other hand does not have the track history resume supporting his potential for tonight’s event but the #78 was extremely fast in both practices. I expect the #78 to be really fast tonight but they have to prove they can finish the race as good as they start which has been there biggest challenge with backing up practice speeds this season.
If you are going to talk about potential race winners, I believe you have to bring the names of Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, and possibly Joey Logano into the fray. Edwards has to be mentioned for his 3 Texas victories and the fact he will be starting from the pole tonight. The #19 has had a great start to 2016 so it will be interesting to see if they can make some leeway towards earning that first victory tonight. Kyle Busch may be one of the top contenders if you look at recent history. Rowdy earned another Xfinity Series win yesterday by winning the O’Reilly Auto Parts 300 at Texas. If you remember, he swept the entire weekend at Martinsville last week so he will look to do it again this evening. The #18 was decent on speed in practices but I believe you have to take into account the fact he has finished 4th or better in 5 of the last 6 Texas races which includes a win in 2013. That is a pretty impressive for anyone so expect the #18 to be in the thick of things later tonight.
If you are looking for a few guys to throw into the dark horse race with good odds, obviously I like Martin Truex Jr as mentioned above but do not be afraid to look at the rookie Chase Elliott. Elliott posted his best qualifying effort of the season on Friday and will roll off 4th. Elliott was really impressive on the rugged surface of Atlanta and posted another quality finish at Fontana. The youngster has a knack for the 1.5 mile layouts even going back to his rookie season in the Xfinity Series. I think the #24 has some sneaky speed and I like the way the youngster gets better as the races progress which is a combination for a potential upset in the making.
From a H2H perspective, I think Elliott would be a great value driver and I would also add Austin Dillon into the mix for intermediate matchups. On the flip side, I will be looking for matchups that may fade Dale Earnhardt Jr and Matt Kenseth. The #20 car has had speed but the team is not finishing races. They have just one finish better than 15th this season and that was a 9th at Phoenix. I think Kenseth’s track history (2 wins, 13 top 5’s) will have him overvalued tonight and he may be a good driver to go against. Dale Earnhardt Jr is also another guy that I am considering fading in H2H matchups. The #88 has been pretty solid here in recent trips with finishes of 6th or better in the last 3 races. However, I saw a lot of fall off in times from that car on Friday and I think they are going to be looking for answers once the race starts.
2016 Duck Commander 500 Race Picks
Martin Truex Jr +900 (1 unit): fastest car throughout the weekend, decent odds, rolling off 3rd
Carl Edwards +1150 (1 unit): 3-time Texas winner, been running well all year, 5th place at Atlanta, may have something to contend with tonight
Chase Elliott +2750 (1 unit): dark horse pick, has been impressive on 1.5 mile tracks early in career, looked really good in final practice, look for the #24 to come on strong during latter half of the race
Two Team Parlay
Kyle Busch +110 wins O’Reilly Auto Parts 300 (Won)
Brad Keselowski +700 wins Duck Commander 500
Risking 1 unit to win: +1632
Jimmie Johnson +480 wins Duck Commander 500
Brad Keselowski -105 finishes Top 5
Risking 1 unit to win: +1032
H2H Matchups and Props
Trevor Bayne -130 over Danica Patrick (3 units)
Brad Keselowski -160 over Matt Kenseth (2 units)
Greg Biffle -110 over Paul Menard (2 units)
Kasey Kahne -135 over Kyle Larson (2 units)
Chase Elliott +335 finishes Top 5 (1 unit)
