2016 Drive Sober 200 Race Predictions
NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Saturday October 1st, 2016 3:16PM (EST) at Dover International Speedway
By Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapper
NASCAR’s Xfinity Series will kick off a double header on Saturday with the running of the Drive Sober 200 at Dover International Speedway. Both the Xfinity and Camping World Truck Series’ will both be in action on Saturday with the Trucks capping off the night with racing at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. To start things off, we take this time to prepare for racing at the Monster Mile. Take a look as we provide our 2016 Drive Sober 200 race predictions!
Last week Elliott Sadler captured the win at Kentucky Speedway in the first race in the Xfinity Chase. Sadler has guaranteed his spot in the next round of the Chase but a few of the Chase favorites in Erik Jones and Ty Dillon both ran into problems last week. Both Dillon and Jones need strong runs tomorrow to get back into the championship hunt. While both are capable of winning, things will definitely be tougher for the Xfinity Series regulars tomorrow. Unlike last week, several Sprint Cup Series drivers like Kyle Busch, Joey Logano, Alex Bowman, and Austin Dillon will all be in action once the green flag waves.
Busch has won 8 times already this season in just 15 Xfinity Series starts and will be a big favorite to do it again on Saturday. Busch owns 5 victories at Dover in the Xfinity Series and he was the fastest car in the first practice on Saturday. In that same practice, Busch posted a 10 lap average with an average speed of 153.291mph. To put things into perspective, Busch’s average speed over 10 laps would have been 7th fastest compared to everyone else’s single lap speed. Needless to say, the #18 car did not show any signs of fall off in race trim and I think Busch looks poised for a potential dominate performance.
However if something happens to Busch like it did at Chicagoland where he blew a tire after dominating the race, then there will be a few drivers that should be ready to capitalize. Erik Jones has one of the best chances to capitalize if the #18 cannot get the job done. Jones has shown good speed as well throughout the weekend and he proved back in May that he can tame the Monster Mile. Jones won the first race at Dover in the Xfinity Series this year and I am sure he will be in contention tomorrow.
I think most of the Sprint Cup Series guys will run towards the front as they were all solid in practices. Joey Logano looked pretty good in the #22 car. I am not sure if the team found speed or if Logano’s natural talent for Dover is just overly apparent. The #22 team has not shown the speed to win races this season but Logano is a 4 time Dover winner in the Xfinity Series and the #22 looked really good in both of Saturday’s practice sessions. Austin Dillon was decent on speed as well.
However, the guy that really stood out was Alex Bowman. As many are aware, Bowman has filled in for Dale Earnhardt Jr in the Sprint Cup Series but he will get to drive one of Junior’s cars in the #88 in the Xfinity Series tomorrow. Bowman has done a fairly decent job in his limited action thus far this season and he posted a really good showing in the May race with a 3rd place finish. If you consider how strong all of the JR Motorsports cars have shown in the Xfinity Series over the last 2 months, then I think Bowman could definitely be a surprise challenger tomorrow.
Elliott Sadler also deserves to be in the conversation going into Saturday’s race. Sadler has been great in the last several weeks and he does not have to be conservative unlike many of the other Xfinity Series regulars. Therefore the #1 team can take a few chances if situations allow to go for the victory. Dover has not exactly been one of Sadler’s best tracks with a career best 4th place finish in 2012 despite 17 starts. However, Sadler is in one of those grooves right now where he is a threat everywhere and I do not think he can be counted out completely again this week. As of now, I would rank the top 5 cars for tomorrow like this: #18, #20, #22, #88, and the #1. I would also consider Darrell Wallace Jr as a dark horse in H2H matchups. Dover is not a track where Wallace would be expected to run well but he has 2 poles and posted a runner-up finish back in May. Therefore, I think he has some upside in the H2H department.
*Update: Kyle Busch, Joey Logano, and Austin Dillon will no longer compete in the Drive Sober 200 due to rain postponing the event to Sunday at 10:00am with the Citizen Soldier 400 immediately following. All prior bets pertaining to those drivers are now voided.
2016 Drive Sober 200 Race Predictions
Alex Bowman +925 (1 unit)
H2H Matchups
Brennan Poole +160 over Brendan Gaughan (2 units) (early forums play)
Erik Jones -175 over Daniel Suarez (2 units)
