2016 DraftKings Duck Commander 500 Predictions

2016 DraftKings Duck Commander 500 Predictions
NASCAR Fantasy Racing Betting Preview
Saturday April 9th, 7:46PM (EST) at Texas Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

NASCAR’s Sprint Cup Series returns to the Saturday night stage this weekend with the running of the Duck Commander 500 at Texas Motor Speedway. Last week Kyle Busch got his hands on his first Grandfather Clock by capturing the coveted trophy at Martinsville. This week 40 drivers will battle it out for 500 miles to earn the chance to fire a pair of six-shooters and put their hands on a Cowboy Boot Trophy in Fort Worth. While you might not be able to get your hands on a trophy, you can join in on the celebration by cashing a few winning tickets with DraftKings Fantasy NASCAR Racing. So take advice from the experts and follow our 2016 DraftKings Duck Commander 500 Predictions!

If we are going to make any reasonable predictions, the first major thing we must take a look at is recent driver performance at Texas and compare that to recent performances at Charlotte and Atlanta which are very similar in layout. Obviously Jimmie Johnson tops the list as he has piloted the #48 machine to 3 straight wins at Texas and has also done similar damage at Atlanta by winning the last two races there. If you add into account Johnson’s trend of qualifying rather poorly at both of those tracks, it really raises his value in terms of potential pass differential. I understand a lot of people like to set their lineups closer to race time to review for potential pass differential points following qualifying and practices. However, often times that information will persuade you from making your best choices. I have been most successful when sticking to track history and recent handicapping style history trends rather than paying too much attention to qualifying/practice speeds. Therefore do not be afraid to lock in a few early lineups as they are often your best choices regardless of starting positions.

Outside of Johnson, I think Kyle Busch would be another great pick as an overall home run threat. Rowdy has posted finishes of 4th or better in 5 of his last 6 Texas starts. However, it may be quite difficult to get both the #48 and the #18 on the same roster with any value still remaining for the rest of your lineup. Either way I believe one of those two drivers should be your anchor picks. Outside of the favorites, it really opens up to a number of drivers that could fill your number 2 spot. Matt Kenseth, Kevin Harvick, and Joey Logano all have winning potential. However, I like Brad Keselowski as my 2nd anchor pick with some sleeper value. Keselowski has led more laps than anyone, including Jimmie Johnson, over the last 4 races at Texas and also leads all drivers with a 120.3 driver rating during that stretch. From a fantasy standpoint, you cannot ask for much better stats going into the weekend especially from a guy that will cost you less on your roster than most other intermediate favorites.

Once you have the anchors of your lineup set, it is all about filling in the gaps with value and potential. I have Greg Biffle as another sleeper pick on my lineup. There was a time when Biffle was one of the best drivers every time the Sprint Cup Series made a trip to Texas. The “Biff” has two victories and 8 top 5 finishes in 24 career starts and Texas is still one of his favorite tracks. The “Biff” has fallen off the radar in recent years at Texas but that has been mainly due to the struggles by Roush-Fenway Racing. With the significant improvements made from the Roush-Fenway stable thus far in 2016, I feel this is going to be a really good weekend for the #16 bunch and I believe Biffle is a steal at a low $6,500 salary cap. A few other drivers I feel have some big upside in the value department is Ryan Blaney and Austin Dillon. Dillon has especially been impressive thus far in 2016 and posted a 5th place finish on the last 1.5 mile track in Las Vegas which gives him even more potential again this week. I may have taken a slight gamble with Blaney considering his bad luck at Texas in 2015. However, the #21 has proven to be very fast on the 1.5 mile setups and I can see a strong run coming for this group.

Plus saving some room on my salary cap, allowed me the opportunity to close my lineup with another really solid entry with Martin Truex Jr. Truex is one of those guys that could come through as a dark horse and be one of the highest rated drivers by the time the dust settles in Texas Saturday night. The #78 has been solid on the 1.5 mile tracks this season with finishes of 11th and 7th. Throw in the fact that Truex finished inside the top 10 in both Texas races last year and I think he has tremendous upside. More importantly, Truex helps close out a really solid lineup that is bound to cash some winnings by the time the checkered waves Saturday night!

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