2016 Coke Zero 400 Race Predictions

2016 Coke Zero 400 Race Predictions
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday July 2nd, 8:08PM (EST) at Daytona International Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

One of the most popular races of the season will take place tonight when the Sprint Cup Series unleashes 40 cars, each equipped with more than 850 horsepower, onto the high banks of Daytona International Speedway for the running of the Coke Zero 400. If you recall, last year’s Coke Zero 400 was one of the wildest races of the year that featured a scary crash that sent Austin Dillon into the catch fence at the checkered flag. Tonight we await more fireworks and exciting racing as we celebrate July 4th in true NASCAR style. Take a look as we preview tonight’s race and provide our 2016 Coke Zero 400 race predictions!

Obviously with the return of restrictor plate racing, things are bound to get exciting. The last time the Cup Series participated in restrictor plate racing was back in May at Talladega. In that race, we saw numerous cautions, scary wrecks, and even a couple of cars went airborne. In fact, the carnage was so bad that many expected that NASCAR would implement rules changes in hopes to somehow lessen the risk of bad accidents. However, NASCAR did not make any changes to the current rules package meaning tonight’s racing action could keep everyone, including the drivers, on the edge of their seats.

Everyone knows that these restrictor plate races are tough to predict and if we see as many cautions as we witnessed back at Talladega then anything can happen yet again. However, we do not want to rule out all handicapping angles as we still have some expectations that we think may unfold in the twilight hours this evening at Daytona Beach. One of the major expectations that I have for this races is that I expect the JGR cars to continue to show their strength just as they did back in February. I know it has been several months since the 500 but do not forget that all 5 JGR affiliated cars were running nose to tail on the final lap of that race. It was not by coincidence either as the JGR cars dominated the entire running of the Daytona 500 and they will all be starting towards the front of the pack again tonight.

As a result, I think any of the JGR affiliated cars are a threat to win tonight’s race. In recent trips to the beach, nobody has been better than Denny Hamlin so his name goes to the top of the list. Hamlin won the Sprint Unlimited and the Daytona 500 back in February. Hamlin has also recorded a remarkable 4 top 5 finishes in his last 5 races at Daytona which is quite impressive for a restrictor plate track. As far as the other JGR affiliates, I believe Kyle Busch and Matt Kenseth have the best restrictor plate talent. Martin Truex Jr was just inches away from winning the Daytona 500 in February but he fell just short to Denny Hamlin. While I do not believe that Truex or Carl Edwards are the best restrictor plate talents, I still believe that the JGR brigade is the best bet to score the victory when the checkered flag waves.

Outside of the JGR brigade, I believe you have to put Dale Earnhardt Jr at the top of the list. Earnhardt has two wins in the last 5 races at Daytona and is tied with Tony Stewart for the most (4) among active drivers. The #88 team struggled with handling issues in both prior restrictor plate races this season which ultimately ended up in single car accidents. However, Greg Ives and company have resorted back to their 2015 setup at Daytona in effort to get Earnhardt the handling comfort that he needs to be aggressive. So JR nation will anxiously wait to see if those changes will work because the #88 is still without a win and this will be one of their best opportunities. I know I mentioned Stewart as tied with Earnhardt for the most wins among active drivers. The interesting factor about “Smoke” is that all 4 of his wins at Daytona have come in the July race. Obviously the #14 team has some momentum after a huge win last week at Sonoma and I would not be surprised if they run well again this evening.

A few of your other usual suspects for plate racing include guys like Joey Logano, Kevin Harvick, and Jimmie Johnson. I don’t think anyone would be surprised if one of those drivers captured the win tonight. Harvick was able to break up the JGR party to some extent at the 500. After hanging out in the back for much of the race, Harvick worked his way to the front and actually gave Denny Hamlin the push to the lead on the final lap. The #4 team executed a beautiful strategy back in February by staying out of trouble and working their way to the front in the closing laps. If you have not noticed, Harvick has finished 4th, 4th, and 2nd in his last 3 races at Daytona. Therefore, I think the #4 is a solid pick from an odds perspective since he will be starting rather deep in the field.

However, let’s reiterate the fact that anyone can win this race if they can get towards the front and make the right moves in the closing laps. Jamie McMurray is a two time Daytona winner. Ryan Newman, David Ragan, Greg Biffle (starting on pole), and Aric Almirola all have Daytona wins on their resume. Therefore, do not be afraid to put a few long shots on your betting card in hopes for a big payout. We all know these restrictor plate races are tough to predict but the possibility of hitting a big winner is more likely at these places than anywhere else on the NASCAR schedule.

2016 Coke Zero 400 Race Predictions

Want to bet on tonight’s Coke Zero 400? Get instant access to the best NASCAR betting odds available at 5Dimes

Kyle Busch +1100 (1.25 units): 2008 winner, 3rd place finish in the 500, 2nd at Talladega, JGR has been strong on the restrictor plate tracks this season
Martin Truex Jr +1700 (1 unit): inches short of Daytona 500 win, part of the JGR alliance that I expect to run towards the front all night, starting 15th
Chase Elliott +2600 (.75 unit): Daytona 500 debut was curtailed but has a fast #24 car, has proven restrictor plate skills from the Xfinity Series, getting good odds

Two Team Parlay

Kevin Harvick/Denny Hamlin +475 wins Coke Zero 400
Casey Mears +115 over Regan Smith
Risking 1.25 units to win: +1420

H2H Matchups and Props

Carl Edwards -120 over Brad Keselowski (2 units)
Joey Logano +170 finishes Top 5 (1 unit)
Kevin Harvick +165 finishes Top 5 (1 unit)