2016 Citizen Soldier 400 Race Predictions

2016 Citizen Soldier 400 Race Predictions
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday October 2nd, 2:14PM (EST) at Dover International Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

In just a few hours, the last race in the round of 16 for the Sprint Cup Chase will take place at the Monster Mile with the running of the Citizen Soldier 400. While many will be watching the Chase drama unfold surrounding the 4 drivers that will be eliminated once the checkered flag waves, we take this time to look into the drivers that can bring some profits to our betting cards. Back in May, Matt Kenseth held off Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott to score the win at the Monster Mile. Who will be able to get the victory today? Find out our thoughts as we provide our 2016 Citizen Soldier 400 race predictions!

Mother Nature interrupted some of the plans for Sprint Cup Series teams on both Friday and Saturday. On Friday, qualifying was rained out after the first practice which means today’s starting lineup is based on owner’s points. On Saturday rain also intervened yet again with scheduled on-track activities as Happy Hour was rained out. Therefore, we do not have as much practice data to observe this week which hurts a bit from a handicapping standpoint. I don’t personally look at fast lap speeds but I do like to review race trim speeds that are usually seen best in Happy Hour. Unfortunately, we did not get to see a final practice on Saturday.

The good news is that we still have a lot of data from the first Dover race this year, prior track history, recent trends, and the two practices that did transpire on Friday and Saturday to move forward with. As a collective result combined with some intuitive knowledge gained in recent weeks, I believe the young guys that race well back in May will be very tough again today. By young guys, I am referring to Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott. We all know that Larson has run well during the 2nd half of the season despite a pair of mediocre results through the first two Chase races. However, those results do not reflect the speed that the #42 car has possessed. This team has not lost any speed in recent weeks and now that take aim at a track where Larson has posted stellar results. In his 5 career starts, he has posted finishes of 11th, 6th, 3rd, 9th, and 2nd. That is pretty remarkable results for any driver in their first 5 starts at a track and I think Larson could build off that runner-up finish in May to make a run at a victory this afternoon.

Chase Elliott is the other “young” guy that is on my radar today. Hendrick Motorsports has found speed in recent weeks which not only makes Elliott dangerous but also Jimmie Johnson this afternoon. Johnson owns the most wins all-time at Dover with 10 victories and owns an impressive 9.62 average finish over 29 career starts. With Hendrick’s new found speed, the #24 and #48 machines come into the picture this afternoon. I actually believe the #24 has the better car going into today’s race as he posted the 2nd best 10 lap average in Saturday’s only practice session. However, I do not believe you can count out the #48 team at the Monster Mile so expect both guys to run really well this afternoon.

The other two guys that I expect to be the biggest contenders this afternoon include the likes of Kevin Harvick and Matt Kenseth. Harvick came through last week with a victory at New Hampshire after a disappointing start to the Chase at Chicagoland. The #4 team is bringing some really good speed to the track and Harvick is the defending winner of this race. Kenseth is a 3-time Dover winner with the most recent victory coming back in May as I alluded to earlier. The #20 was 2nd last week at New Hampshire and they will be looking forward to another opportunity to go for the win this afternoon. Kenseth and Jimmie Johnson are the only two drivers that have posted 3 top 5 finishes in the last 5 Dover races.

Outside of your top 5 biggest threats for the win this afternoon, I expect the rest of the Toyota brigade from the JGR alliance to be relatively strong. Brad Keselowski is probably posted the most consistently strong results over the last several weeks. Keselowski has posted 4 top 5 finishes in the last 5 races and 6 top 5 finishes in the last 8 races. He led some laps back in the May race before residing to a 6th place effort and I think he will have another good shot to lead many laps in route to another quality finish this afternoon. If you are looking for some guys further back in the pack, Kasey Kahne and Ricky Stenhouse Jr both showed speed capable of racing their way forward which brings both drivers some value in the H2H departments. With that being said, take a look at my 2016 Citizen Soldier race predictions for Dover!

2016 Citizen Soldier 400 Race Predictions

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Matt Kenseth +775 (1.25 units): 3-time winner including most recently in May, finished 7th or better in 13 of last 17 Dover races
Kyle Larson +1000 (1.25 units): runner-up in May, 6.20 average finish position in 5 career starts
Brad Keselowski +1200 (1 unit): 2012 winner, two runner-up finishes in 2014, should hang around the front today
Chase Elliott +1600 (1 unit): 3rd place finish in 1st career Dover start in May, 2nd best 10 lap average in practice 2

H2H Match-ups and Props

Paul Menard -150 over Trevor Bayne (3 units)
Kevin Harvick -135 over Martin Truex Jr (3 units)
Kyle Larson +125 finishes Top 5 (2 units)
Chase Elliott +415 finishes Top 3 (1 unit)