2016 Cheez-It 355 Race Predictions

2016 Cheez-It 355 Race Predictions
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday August 7th, 1:50PM (EST) at Watkins Glen International
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

The Sprint Cup Series will go road course racing this afternoon with the running of the Cheez-It 355 at Watkins Glen International. Today’s race marks the 2nd and final road course event of the season. If you remember back at Sonoma, Tony Stewart scored an emotional victory to lock his self into the Chase in what is his farewell season. Stewart took advantage of pit road strategy and capitalized on track position in the closing laps to earn that win at Sonoma. Today pit road strategy and track position will be at the forefront of determining who will win on the newly repaved surface at the Glen. Follow us as we preview today’s race and provide our 2016 Cheez-It 355 race predictions!

One of the favorites heading into today’s race will be last year’s winner Joey Logano. For those of you that can recall, Logano tracked down Kevin Harvick after the #4 car run out of gas coming to the checkered flag to get the victory. The win completed a weekend sweep for Logano who also won the Xfinity Series race that same weekend. Today Logano will have the opportunity to earn his 2nd straight weekend sweep after winning Saturday’s Xfinity Series Zippo 200. Logano only posted the 14th fastest time in Happy Hour but I still thought the #22 car looked really strong in race trim meaning his chances are very good towards capturing that 2nd straight sweep.

While Logano is obviously one of the favorites, if I had to rank the field then I would probably put Kyle Busch at the top of the list. Busch finished 2nd in last year’s race and is a two time winner at the Glen. Over the last several years, he has been one of the best drivers at Watkins Glen posting an 8.2 average finishing position over the last 10 races which is 2nd best to Carl Edwards who has a remarkable 7.3 average finishing position despite not have any wins. Edwards will actually start on the pole today as he seeks his first win at WGI. Surprisingly, Busch is the only driver from the JGR alliance that has a win at the Glen which is surprising considering that Martin Truex Jr, Matt Kenseth, Denny Hamlin, and Carl Edwards have 47 combined starts.

Obviously Denny Hamlin and Matt Kenseth are not known for their road course talent as they typically struggle at these layouts. However, it is still pretty surprising that Rowdy is the only driver from the team with a win at WGI. I believe Busch has an excellent opportunity to add another victory to his resume this afternoon if he can play the strategy game correctly because he definitely has one of the best cars along with the most talent at the Glen. A few other drivers that stand out from their talent at the road courses include the likes of Brad Keselowski, AJ Allmendinger, and Tony Stewart.

Allmendinger broke through for his first victory in 2014 at the Glen and he is known as one of the best road course racers in the Cup Series. Allmendinger struggled a bit through the early parts of Friday’s practices but did rebound with the fastest lap in Happy Hour. Keselowski is still searching for his first WGI victory but he has been so close on so many occasions. In his 6 career starts, Keselowski has posted 3 runner-up finishes at the Glen and there is no doubt that he should be knocking on the door again this afternoon. Another driver that also cannot be overlooked is Tony Stewart. Smoke proved at Sonoma that he can still get the job done and his 5 Watkins Glen victories are the most all-time. Smoke did not look overly dominate in practices in the #14 machine but then again neither did he look very strong at Sonoma. We know that Stewart will gamble to get the victory especially since that team is already locked into the Chase so he may be worth another gamble.

Still despite the guys I think that are poised to go after the win this afternoon whether it is because they have fast cars or sheer road course talent, the truth is anyone can win this race when strategy comes into play. Do not be afraid to take some drivers that may not be in the prerace discussion this afternoon and put them on your roster. Especially if you know those drivers have the talent to hold off the field if they get out front. Kyle Larson is a driver that stands out to me that a lot of people do not talk about enough when road course racing comes around. Larson posted a 4th place finish in his first start at the Glen two years ago and he has shown his talent in these races before. If the #42 team can play the strategy game right, I think Larson is one of those drivers that could easily sneak into the picture. However, there are others that are even bigger long shots that you may want to consider because strategy is definitely going to be a big factor this afternoon.

2016 Cheez-It 355 Race Predictions

Want to bet on today’s race? Get the best odds and immediate access with 5 Dimes

AJ Allmendinger +850 (1.25 units): 2014 winner, fastest in final practice, needs a win to get into the Chase

Brad Keselowski +1100 (1.25 units): 3 runner-up finishes in 6 starts, fastest 10 lap average in practice 1, starting 12th
Martin Truex Jr +1850 (1 unit): early forums pick, fastest in practice 1, 2nd in final practice, starting 14th
Michael McDowell +23000 (.25 unit): extremely huge odds for a great road racer, will need Chris Buescher’s horseshoe today but why not at such great odds? Starting 11th

Two Team Parlays

Joey Logano +295 wins Zippo 200 (win)
Kyle Busch/Joey Logano +315 wins Cheez-It 355
Risking 1 unit to win: +1539

H2H Matchups and Props

Brad Keselowski -150 over Denny Hamlin (3 units)
Kevin Harvick -135 over Jimmie Johnson (2 units)
AJ Allmendinger -115 over Tony Stewart (2 units)
Casey Mears +100 over Ryan Blaney (2 units)
Brad Keselowski +365 finishes Top 3 (1 unit)
Matt Kenseth +1000 finishes Top 3 (.5 unit)
Casey Mears +5300 finishes Top 3 (.25 unit)
Michael McDowell +5500 finishes Top 3 (.25 unit)