2016 Can-Am 500(k) Race Predictions

2016 Can-Am 500(k) Race Predictions
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday November 13th, 1:20PM (EST) at Phoenix International Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

Today the Sprint Cup Series will go racing in the Valley of the Sun with the running of the Can-Am 500(k) at Phoenix International Raceway. This afternoon’s race will finalize the final 4 drivers that will race for a championship next week at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Currently Jimmie Johnson and Carl Edwards are locked into the Championship Round thanks to their wins at Martinsville and Texas. Today we find out if another driver can earn a victory to secure their spot at Homestead or if a non-Chase driver can get the victory which would mean the final two transfer spots would be given based on points. Find out our thoughts for today’s race as we provide our 2016 Can-Am 500(k) race predictions!

The first driver that comes to everyone’s mind when the Sprint Cup Series stops in Phoenix is Kevin Harvick. Harvick has been the unprecedented king of Phoenix International Raceway with 8 victories which is the most all-time. Harvick’s incredible record at Phoenix has been highlighted in most recent years with 6 victories in the last 8 races. Today Kevin Harvick will be in a similar spot that he was in during the 2014 season as he needed a victory to advance in the Chase. Due to some poor finishes in the last two weeks, Harvick will not be able to make it in on points alone. Therefore, he has to get a win to keep his championship hopes alive. He was able to get the victory in 2014 and cruise to his first Sprint Cup Title a week later. The #4 team is the only team that has never been eliminated from this new knockout version of the Chase and today that streak will be put on the line yet again.

It is worth noting that Harvick was not overly impressive in practices on Saturday. However, he has also never been too overly impressive in most of his practices here at Phoenix in recent years. Therefore, I would not limit his chances today especially considering he has a pretty good starting position in 6th. I would perhaps say that the #4 may not have as dominant a car that he has brought in previous years but I would not lessen his likelihood of winning. Now if you are trying to bet Harvick, good luck because he has seen ridiculously low odds this week and is currently listed at just 2-1 odds. Considering the probability factor, I think you almost have to look at the rest of the field to bet this race unless you are going to take your chances on Harvick alone.

Due to the fact I don’t think Harvick’s car is quite as good as it has been in previous trips, I am going to take my chances with the rest of the field. I know “pray for me.” However, there is some serious value in some of the other names behind Harvick that have looked really good in practices. Jimmie Johnson and Brad Keselowski are two names that are over double digits odds that I like this afternoon. There was once a period where Johnson was the unprecedented king of Phoenix from 2007-2009 when he racked up 4 wins in 5 starts. Many forget that stretch during this most recent run of Harvick’s but the driver of the #48 definitely knows how to get it done at PIR. I think he is worth a look at nearly 13-1 odds currently. Keselowski is guy that I really like. He has been fast in every practice session and he has been running very strong in recent weeks despite a couple of poor finishes. This #2 team feels like they are on the verge of another win and I believe they are as well. The problem is that they have just 2 races left to get the job done. Keselowski has never won at Phoenix but he has better than any driver not named Harvick over the last 10 races with a 9.5 average finishing position. Therefore, I like the #2 as a dark horse this afternoon when most eyes will be on Harvick and the remaining Chase drivers.

A few other guys that I think have legitimate chances to win this afternoon include both Joey Logano and Kyle Busch. Logano is another driver, like Keselowski, that has been running good everywhere. He finished 3rd, 1st, 9th, and 2nd in his last 4 races with the win coming at Talladega. I think this #22 team is peaking at the right time in terms of the championship picture and after a few solid practices on Saturday; they should contend again this afternoon. Also, Kyle Busch is another guy I think has a great opportunity this afternoon. Busch currently resides in the 4th position in the Chase standings but he is just 1 point to the good. Rowdy has posted back to back 4th place finishes in his last 2 Phoenix starts and he posted the fastest time in final practice. I think the #18 team knows they have to run really well this afternoon so I expect Busch to be a factor.

Obviously the case could be made for most of the JGR cars as they have all looked good at some points this weekend. I just think the #18 has the best chances. Martin Truex Jr may be another guy that could play spoiler. He has arguably been one of the fastest cars throughout practices but he will have to start from the 40th position as a result of failing to qualify on Friday. The #78 team could not get their backup car through inspection after wrecking the primary in practice #1 so they did not get to post a qualifying lap. The good news is that Truex has plenty of time to get to the front and a really fast car. I like Truex and Chase Elliott as potential sleeper picks. Elliott is another guy that has been rock solid throughout sessions and displayed some long run speed. Keep those drivers on your radar this afternoon.

2016 Can-Am 500(k) Race Predictions

Want to bet on today’s race? Get immediate access and the best odds with 5 Dimes

Brad Keselowski +1100 (1.25 units): 2nd in both of Saturday’s practices, really fast in recent weeks, solid value
Martin Truex Jr +1200 (1.25 units): possibly the best car throughout practices, fastest 10 lap average in practice 2, another Chase spoiler
Jimmie Johnson +1300 (1.25 units): 4 time Phoenix winner, team is already locked into Homestead and is racing for trophies, very solid long run speed

Two Team Parlay

Joey Logano +600 wins Can-Am 500(k)
Kasey Kahne +150 over Alex Bowman
Risking 1 unit to win: +1650

H2H Matchups and Props

Trevor Bayne -155 over Clint Bowyer (4 units)
Joey Logano -130 over Denny Hamlin (3 units)
Brad Keselowski -125 over Carl Edwards (3 units)
Chase Elliott -115 over Carl Edwards (2 units)