2016 Bojangles Southern 500 Race Predictions
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday September 4th, 6:20PM (EST) at Darlington Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
Tonight all eyes will be on Darlington Raceway as NASCAR fans anticipate one of the most exciting races of the season in the Bojangles’ Southern 500. Darlington Raceway, the track named “Too Tough To Tame”, is alluring enough in the realm of excitement. The track eats away at tires, provides close racing, and its narrow racing groove usually reaches out to grab competitors to leave its infamous “Darlington Stripe.” However, one of the new traditions for Darlington makes this race even more special as NASCAR salutes its past with a throwback weekend honoring some of the sport’s biggest names while teams don retro paint schemes in salute to some of NASCAR’s greatest drivers. A win at Darlington has always been important for drivers because the track is the ultimate drivers test but now with the added significance with NASCAR honoring its past, a win here will be even more special. Take a look as we preview who has the best chance to add their name to the list of Darlington winners as we provide our 2016 Bojangles Southern 500 race predictions!
Going into the weekend, I felt like Denny Hamlin had some momentum and should be among the drivers to beat. If you follow our betting forums, I took Hamlin at the onset of opening odds this week at 8-1 for 1.5 units. Darlington has historically been Hamlin’s best track with an incredible 6.50 average finishing position in his 10 career starts. In Hamlin’s last 6 starts, he has posted finishes of 1st, 6th, 2nd, 2nd, 19th, and 3rd. Therefore, I found it generous that he was getting 8-1 odds at openers especially when you consider the #11 team’s recent momentum in the last few weeks where they have been running really well. Hamlin also looked really good in Saturday’s practices and the team even elected to sit out the final 30 minutes of final practice because they did not want to mess the car up. Currently, Hamlin’s odds are under 4-1 and he is clearly among the drivers to beat if everything goes according to plan when the green flag waves this evening.
Even though I think I was on the right side with the early pick with Hamlin, I also thought that all the JGR guys would be among the drivers to beat this week as we return to our normal rules package. Also in the last 8 races, every driver currently on JGR’s roster has scored a victory. However, I did not see too any dominating speed from the JGR camp like we have seen most of the season. Hamlin was obviously really strong as previously discussed but the rest of the camp struggled in practices. Carl Edwards and the #19 car was not too far off and considering Edwards’ history at Darlington I still expect him to run well. Matt Kenseth was completely off in terms of speed and Kyle Busch’s team struggled to get the handling right on the #18. Busch’s team was struggling with loose conditions and reported the car was not taking changes to the car well. That comment struck a red flag with me because sometimes you get a car that does not change as well with setup changes and that is tough to overcome.
Instead of the JGR guys shining, I think the momentum for the Chevrolet drivers continued to gain steam. Jimmie Johnson had the best practice sessions that he has put together in months in the #48 car. Johnson had a pretty solid run last week at Michigan and it looks like the team has found some speed. Outside of Jeff Gordon who will be filling in for Dale Earnhardt Jr, Johnson has the most wins among active drivers with 3 Darlington victories. Of course Gordon’s 7 victories overshadow that mark but Gordon has not really shown any “winning” type speed. Johnson was really strong in race trim and I expect him to be a factor this afternoon. A few other Chevrolet drivers that should be in the picture include Kevin Harvick, Kyle Larson, and Chase Elliott. Harvick was decent on speed and I expect he will lead several early laps starting from the pole position. Larson appeared to be the 2nd best Chevrolet in race trim and you know he has some momentum after last week’s victory. Elliott was not far off of Larson’s speed but they were struggling to get the balance correct on the #24 machine.
I know I have talked about teams and manufacturers thus far. However, I wanted to paint the picture that the Chevrolet drivers are gaining ground on the Toyotas. I really think Hamlin and Johnson are the top two drivers going into tonight’s race. However, you could make solid arguments for Martin Truex Jr and Brad Keselowski tonight as well. Truex was very strong in race trim and if you consider his dominating win at Charlotte it is hard to completely count him out as the intermediate ovals. Keselowski had plenty of takeoff speed but the car just seemed to fall off a bit more than some of the other cars. If the #2 team can gain some ground on the falloff speed, the #2 team could be where they need to be.
If you are looking for a few guys that should bring some value in H2H matchups, look no further than Greg Biffle. Biffle was the surprise of Saturday’s practices and posted the fastest 10 lap average in final practice. Biffle’s ability at Darlington may not be a big surprise as he has two Darlington wins on his resume. However, the Roush-Fenway cars have not been competitive in a while so it was nice to see Biffle and some of the other Roush-Fenway cars have strong practices. A few other guys that I had upside for matchups include Kasey Kahne and Ryan Blaney. Both guys showed some really solid speed and I believe have the opportunity to get quality finishes this afternoon.
2016 Bojangles Southern 500 Race Predictions
* More picks to be posted closer to race time
Denny Hamlin +800 (1.5 units): 2010 winner, 6.50 average finishing position best among active drivers, 2nd fastest in practice 1
Martin Truex Jr +1250 (1 unit): semi-dark horse pick, was really strong in race trim, looking for first Darlington victory
Carl Edwards +1250 (1 unit): 2015 winner, 5th best 10 lap average in final practice, looking for repeat throwback win
Two Team Parlay
Kevin Harvick/Jimmie Johnson +411 wins Southern 500
Austin Dillon +110 over Tony Stewart
Risking 1.25 units to win: +1216
H2H Matchups
Carl Edwards -130 over Matt Kenseth (2 units)
Martin Truex Jr -130 over Joey Logano (2 units)
Casey Mears -110 over Danica Patrick (2 units)
Greg Biffle +3000 finishes Top 3 (1 unit)
