2016 Bank of America 500 Race Predictions

2016 Bank of America Race Predictions
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday October 9th, 12:00PM (EST) at Charlotte Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

The Bank of America 500 was scheduled to take place later tonight at Charlotte Motor Speedway. However due to some complications with Mother Nature and Hurricane Matthew, tonight’s race has been postponed to Sunday at 12:00pm (EST). While the racing action may have been pushed back, we still take this time to preview what to expect once racing does resume on Sunday. Since Charlotte represents the first race in the Chase Round of 8, the stakes are getting higher in the race for the Sprint Cup Championship. Take a look as we preview tomorrow’s race and provide our 2016 Bank of America 500 race predictions!

The majority of this weekend’s on-track activities has been curtailed due to Hurricane Matthew. On Saturday both of the Sprint Cup Series’ practices and the Xfinity Series Drive for the Cure 300 was cancelled due to weather. The Xfinity Series race is now scheduled to take place 45 minutes after tomorrow’s Bank of America 500. For Sprint Cup Series teams and drivers, there is a cloud of uncertainty surrounding what to truly expect tomorrow once the green flag waves. Teams only had the luxury of one practice on Friday and now what was previously scheduled to be a Saturday night race will transition to a Sunday midday start time. The changes in the track itself will be quite significant and now everyone combine the fact that teams had very little practice time to get grip on the status of their racecars. Therefore, there will be some added pressure on teams and crew chiefs to envision the changes needed for tomorrow’s noon start time.

Though there is a cloud of uncertainty from practices and the postponement factor, we still have had enough races at Charlotte this year to establish some expectations and move forward with relative recent factors to provide predictions for Sunday’s race. A few early predictions that I don’t think many would argue is that Kevin Harvick and Martin Truex Jr should be two of the drivers to beat. Harvick was fastest in Friday’s lone practice session and then backed up that speed by winning the pole Friday evening. Harvick had some trouble in the opening round of the Chase. He got behind at Chicagoland due to a pit stop mistake to finish 20th and broke a rear track bar last week at Dover that resulted in a finish of 37th. Luckily, the driver of the #4 car sealed his advancement in the Chase with his win at New Hampshire.

While the team has had some bad luck in recent weeks, they have shown a lot of speed despite the misfortune. The #4 car has been one of the fastest cars throughout each race in the Chase despite two poor finishes. This week Harvick and the #4 team appears that they have unloaded yet another really fast ride which was evident on Friday in the little bit of on-track activity we have seen this weekend. Also, let’s not forget that Harvick ran really well at Charlotte in the Coca Cola 600 in a runner-up finish.

I think a lot of people have forgot how strong the #4 car was in that race due to the way Martin Truex Jr dominated the event to 392 of the 400 laps. However, Harvick was the only other car that was in the ball park of the #78 back in May and I think these two guys are destined for another impressive performance on Sunday. Truex did not show the speed that the #4 team did on Friday but few are going to forget how dominate they were back in May despite the changes in track condition that will be apparent tomorrow afternoon. More importantly nobody has been better than the #78 team who has won 3 of the last 5 races in the last several weeks. For the #78 team, Charlotte comes at a perfect time for Truex to build off the success this team has found.

As far as the rest of the field is concerned, I believe it becomes a bigger guessing game behind the #78 and #4 cars but perhaps not completely unpredictable. I have been waiting for Jimmie Johnson to have a coming out party in the Chase especially with the Hendrick cars looking good on speed. For whatever reason, it just has not happened. The #48 has been consistent but they just have not had winning speed. Since Johnson’s 3rd place finish in the Coca Cola 600 at Charlotte, he has only posted one other top 5 finish with an equal 3rd place showing at the Brickyard. So while the #48 has not really shown winning trends, I still would not completely rule his chances out at Charlotte where he owns 7 victories. I also would not let teammate Chase Elliott fly under the radar tomorrow as well. As state before, the Hendrick cars have found speed and Elliott has performed better than anyone not named Martin Truex Jr. The rookie has posted two 3rd place showings in the Chase and he earned an 8th place finish in his first Coca Cola 600 in May. Expect the #24 to be stout yet again.

If you look at speeds alone from Friday’s practice and qualifying, you may could add Kyle Busch into the mix as potential contenders. The #18 looked really strong on single lap speed but I cannot look past the fact he is still 0 and 25 at Charlotte Motor Speedway. If you are braver than me, feel free to jump on the #18 but I am still in the “prove me wrong” category with Rowdy. A few guys that I think could surprise despite practice speeds are both drivers from Team Penske in Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski. In 15 career starts, Logano has only finished outside the top 15 at Charlotte twice. Logano is the defending winner of the Bank of America 500 and let’s not forget the #22 was runner-up at Chicagoland just a few weeks back.

My short list of drivers for the win would rank like this: #4, #78, #24, #22, #48, #18 and the #22. I think Matt Kenseth could probably be thrown towards the end of that list as well. Outside of the contenders, I would keep a close eye on guys like Alex Bowman and Ryan Newman. Those 3 guys showed some speed on Friday. Bowman has been impressive in his starts for Dale Jr and I think they are getting better. Bowman was 2nd in practice and backed up that effort with an outside pole qualifying effort. Newman has posted 7 straight finishes of 15th or better at Charlotte including 5 top 10 finishes during that stretch. Newman looked pretty solid in practice and I think could have another quality run on Sunday. Consider both guys for potential picks in H2H match-ups on Sunday.

2016 Bank of America 500 Race Predictions

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Joey Logano +1200 (1.25 units): defending winner, runner-up finish at Chicagoland, also won All-Star Race in May
Chase Elliott +1500 (1 unit): 8th place finish in first Charlotte start in May, 3rd place at Chicagoland, running really well, starting 3rd

Two Team Parlays

Kevin Harvick +400 wins Bank of America 500
Kasey Kahne -105 over Austin Dillon
Risking 1.25 units to win: +1095

Martin Truex Jr +400 wins Bank of America 500
Kurt Busch +110 over Kyle Larson
Risking 1.25 units to win: +1185

H2H Match-ups and Props

Joey Logano -110 over Matt Kenseth (2 units)
Ryan Newman -110 over Jamie McMurray (2 units)
Joey Logano +160 finishes Top 5 (2 units)