2016 Bad Boy Off Road 300 Race Predictions

2016 Bad Boy Off Road 300 Race Predictions
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday September 25th, 2:15PM (EST) at New Hampshire Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

The Sprint Cup Series returns to action tomorrow afternoon with the running of the Bad Boy Off Road 300 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Tomorrow’s event marks the 2nd race in the Chase for the Sprint Cup and after next week’s race at Dover the field will be cut to just 12 drivers. Therefore, the pressure is on several of these teams to deliver quality performances especially for guys like Kevin Harvick and Kyle Larson who struggled last week. Find out the drivers that we think should emerge from the pack and contend for the victory on Sunday as we provide our 2016 Bad Boy Off Road 300 race predictions!

Last week Martin Truex Jr earned an auto bid into the next round of the Chase with an impressive victory at Chicagoland. We have all seen the speed in the #78 car this year but last week’s win was confirmation that Truex can get the job done even when the pressure is on. Truex has drawn a lot of criticism over the years for not being able to close the deal but that team proved last week that they are not going to be forgotten in this Chase. Honestly, I think the #78 team can go really far into this Chase if they avoid self inflicted mistakes which has hurt them on several occasions this year. Back in the July race in Loudon, Truex led 123 of the 301 laps but a broken shifter towards the latter part of the race ended his chances at a victory. However if you consider the momentum and the speed this #78 team keeps bringing to the track, Truex could be a serious threat to go back to back tomorrow afternoon.

Truex led all drivers in the first practice on Saturday with the fastest 10 lap average and he qualified on the outside pole position. Therefore, the #78 should be a legitimate threat once the green flag waves. A few other guys that promise to be a threat tomorrow include a few other guys in JGR equipment. Carl Edwards won the pole and also had the best 10 lap average in Happy Hour. Edwards has had several sub par performances in recent week and that #19 team needs a good run to get the team back on track. Both Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch own two wins each at New Hampshire. Busch led the most laps back in the July race but also ran into some late race issues. On paper, Busch posted some very fast lap times in race trim in both of Saturday’s practices but he was not happy with the way the car was handling. Therefore, it will be interesting to see if the #18 team can get the handling on that car dialed in because it definitely appeared to be fast on the stopwatch.

Hamlin’s team on the other hand made some noticeable gains in the last practice on Saturday. As the moments closed out in final practice, the #11 car had the best speed of anyone on the track. Hamlin was another one of those drivers that entered the Chase with a ton of momentum and New Hampshire is a good track for them to reclaim their status as one of the teams to beat over the next several weeks. Also, I don’t think anyone can look past the final JGR Toyota in Matt Kenseth. Kenseth has been phenomenal at New Hampshire winning the last two races and 3 of the last 6 in Loudon. Since coming to JGR, Kenseth has only finished outside the top 10 once in his 7 starts at New Hampshire and his speeds on Saturday proved that he should be a guy to watch yet again on Sunday.

Outside of those Toyotas, I believe Kevin Harvick and Kyle Larson are the two biggest threats to spoil the show. Ironically both drivers had rather poor finishes last week despite having really fast cars. Harvick and Larson finished 2nd and 3rd in 10 lap averages in final practice. Larson said the team was trying to work on the fall off speed because it seemed their lap times fell off a bit more than other teams after 10 laps. It will be important for the #42 team to get that fixed because New Hampshire typically gets a lot of long green flag runs. Harvick on the other hand seemed to excel on the longer runs. His car only got better after the lap 10 mark that you see on the speed charts and I think that is going to turn out nicely for the #4 team as long as they can stay out of trouble unlike last week.

A few other notes worth mentioning. Austin Dillon had to go to a backup car after crashing in practice 1 on Friday. The team unveiled the backup car for qualifying and Saturday’s practices but have struggled mightily in each session. All of the Hendrick Motorsports cars have shown speed since unloading. The Hendrick cars unloaded with speed last week and it is apparent that they have hit on something. Though they may not quite have the speed of the JGR guys, they have all been fast. Alex Bowman and Kasey Kahne have been right there among the rest of the Chase contenders in terms of raw speed. While both Jimmie Johnson and Chase Elliott have looked strong.

Team Penske did not really impress on the speed charts. However, Logano also looked awful during the July race for about half of the event before he raced his way to a 3rd place finish. Keselowski also has the best average finish of any driver over the last 10 races. Therfore, I seem to think both drivers will be just fine. If you are looking for some bigger sleepers, then possibly keep guys like Ryan Newman and Tony Stewart on your radar. Stewart posted a runner-up finish in the July race and while that was in large part to several other guys having trouble it was still one of his best runs of the year on an oval.

2016 Bad Boy Off Road 300 Race Predictions

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Kevin Harvick +800 (1.25 units): 2006 winner, Top 5 finishes in 3 of last 4 Loudon races, starting 19th
Matt Kenseth +900 (1.25 units): 3-time winner, won last two Loudon races, 2nd best 10 lap average in practice 2
Chase Elliott +2500 (1 unit): 2nd career Loudon start, looked really solid in race trim, dark horse play

Two Team Parlays

William Byron +145 wins UNOH 175
Martin Truex Jr/Denny Hamlin +291 wins Bad Boy Off Road 300
Risking 1.5 units to win: +1285

Kyle Larson +600 wins Bad Boy Off Road 300
Joey Logano +160 finishes Top 5
Risking .5 unit to win: +860

H2H Matchups

Aric Almriola -125 over Clint Bowyer (3 units)
Matt Kenseth -125 over Brad Keselowski (3 units)
Kasey Kahne -115 over Ryan Newman (2 units)
Jamie McMurray -130 over Ryan Blaney (2 units)
Danica Patrick -130 over Casey Mears (2 units)
Chase Elliott +260 finishes Top 5 (1 unit)