2016 Axalta 400 Race Predictions

2016 Axalta 400 Race Predictions
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday June 5th, 1:18PM (EST) at Pocono Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

On Sunday the Sprint Cup Series will attempt to tackle the “Tricky Triangle” that is Pocono Raceway when the green flag is waved for the Axalta “We Paint Winners” 400. On Friday, Team Penske swept the front row as Brad Keselowski earned the Coors Light Pole Award and Joey Logano qualified on the outside pole in the P2 position. Tomorrow Team Penske will try to put an end to an absolutely dominant run from the Joe Gibbs Racing affiliated Toyotas that have won 7 of the last 8 points races. So can Team Penske get the job done? Will JGR Toyotas continue their dominance or will we have a surprise winner? Find out our thoughts as we provide our 2016 Axalta 400 race predictions as we anticipate NASCAR at Pocono!

Ironically, Team Penske is the only team that has been able to win during JGR’s run of dominance that includes the affiliated team of the #78 with Martin Truex who dominated the Coca Cola 600 last week by leading a record 392 of 400 laps. During the last 8 races, Brad Keselowski is the only non JGR affiliated car to win a race by way of his restrictor plate victory at Talladega. You could also throw Joey Logano’s name into the mix for his victory in the Sprint All-Star Race despite the fact it was a non-points event. Tomorrow both Team Penske drivers should have a strong possibility to capture another checkered flag considering the fact that both the #2 and #22 cars have shown a lot of speed so far this weekend.

Both Logano and Keselowski are former Pocono winners with Logano’s being the most recent coming back in June of 2012. Keselowski has a 2011 win to his credit but many remember the 2014 race where he looked to be in control for his 2nd Pocono win before a piece of trash hit the grill and caused the car to overheat in the waning laps. Keselowski made a move to remove the debris from his grill by pulling up behind Danica Patrick which ultimately allowed Dale Earnhardt Jr to get by and steal the victory. Keselowski has been looking for redemption from that giveaway in 2014 but he has not been able to get back to victory lane despite a close call last August where he posted a runner-up finish. Therefore with such a solid resume at this track and a car that appears to be among the best, the #2 should be at the top of everyone’s betting and fantasy rosters on Sunday.

Outside of the Team Penske cars, I am sure most would consider the JGR cars to be on the top of the “most wanted” list in terms of fantasy and betting lineups. Of course you could make the argument that those cars deserve the top spot ahead of Team Penske for their mere streak of dominance especially if you look at someone like Denny Hamlin who leads all drivers with 4 Pocono wins in just 20 career starts. With JGR running so well, Denny Hamlin would appear to be one of the guys to beat especially entering the weekend. However, the JGR cars did not really stand out too much in practice and Hamlin specifically did not look like he had a winner. The only JGR car that really impressed me was the #18 of Kyle Busch.

Busch posted the fastest lap in final practice but it is what he did at the end of final practice that really grabbed my attention. Busch laid down a really fast 10 lap run that had an average that was down in the 51.4 time bracket. If you check out the final practice speeds, Busch’s average time of 51.4 would have been about 15th fastest alone in single lap speed, yet he was running it nearly every lap. I thought that was pretty impressive to say the least. As a few may know, Pocono is just one of two tracks where Busch has never visited victory lane throughout his career. I believe the #18 will have a good chance to end that streak tomorrow and potentially keep the JGR streak alive.

Of course I think the potential is there for several guys to get the job done. I don’t think anyone showed any “Martin Truex Jr” signs of running away and dominating tomorrow’s race. However, guys like Kevin Harvick, Kurt Busch, Dale Earnhardt Jr, Jimmie Johnson, and Martin Truex Jr have to be given some consideration. Kurt Busch has been running well and practiced well again. Harvick was the only guy remotely close to Truex last week at Charlotte and he has posted two runner-up finishes in the last 3 races. Harvick has never won at Pocono but he has been awfully close with runner-up finishes in 2 of the past 3 races.

Dale Earnhardt Jr swept both 2014 races and had a strong 4th place run here last August. Anytime the #88 qualifies well, they typically back it up on race day. Johnson is a 3 time Pocono winner and finished P3 in final practice. Lastly, I would not count out the #78 again for the repeat. I know Truex finally broke through last week after letting so many races get away from him. However, the #78 team has been flat awesome over the last few races and he comes back to a place where he is the defending race winner. The #78 has kind of been under the radar so far this weekend. However Truex was 4th in final practice and I truly expect this team to contend tomorrow afternoon when the green flag is waved.

If you are looking for a few dark horses in H2H action, I would consider Kyle Larson and Ty Dillon. Larson has been running extremely well and he finally got his first 2016 win earlier today in the Xfinity Series. I do not think the #42 has a race winning car but he does have a car he can drive to the front from his 21st place starting position. Since often H2H’s are so influenced by starting positions, Larson could still have some H2H value. Additionally if you can get Ty Dillon in any lower tier match-ups, I would put the #95 on your radar as well. Dillon made his first Pocono start in this race one year ago and finished 18th after starting 29th. I documented in today’s Xfinity Series preview that Dillon performs well at these track types and he proved me right with a 3rd place showing in the Pocono Green 250. Dillon did not qualify well nor practice all that well. However, I do believe he will race better which could open the door for some H2H value as well.

2016 Axalta 400 Race Predictions

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Kevin Harvick +650 (1.5 units): Never won at Pocono but has finished runner-up in 2 of last 3, also finished runner-up in 2 of last 3 points races, starting 4th
Kurt Busch +1450 (1 unit): two-time Pocono winner, top 5 finishes in 5 of last 9 Pocono races, 2nd in final practice, starting 9th
Dale Earnhardt Jr +2000 (1 unit): swept both 2014 Pocono races, finished 4th her last August, lost a little in final practice, rain will make it a green track, starting 8th
Kyle Larson +3300 (.5 unit): 5th place in 1st Pocono start back in 2014, #42 has turned the corner and performing strong everywhere, tomorrow will be no different, today’s Xfinity Series victory proves his talent for this place

Two Team Parlay

Kyle Busch +500 wins Axalta 400
Austin Dillon -105 over Kasey Kahne
Risking 1.25 units to win: +1339

H2H Matchups

Kyle Larson +115 over Chase Elliott (2 units)
Paul Menard +100 over Greg Biffle (2 units)
Dale Earnhardt Jr -150 over Chase Elliott (1 unit)
AJ Allmendinger -180 over Aric Almirola (1 unit)