2016 Axalta 200 Race Picks
NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Saturday March 12th, 2:16PM (EST) at Phoenix International Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
Later this afternoon the Xfinity Series will make their 2016 debut in the valley of the sun with the running of the Axalta 200 at Phoenix International Raceway. Kyle Busch enters today’s racing seeking his 3rd straight Xfinity Series wins after posting victories at both Atlanta and Las Vegas in the last two weeks. Rowdy has been superb at Phoenix over his career with 8 total victories including 4 in his last 5 starts. Busch’s 8 victories at Phoenix are tied with Charlotte and Bristol for the most victories at one track in this series. Today Busch tries to best that mark and score a 3rd straight win as the overwhelming favorite. Find out our opinions on who could challenge Busch and take a look at our 2016 Axalta 200 race picks.
On Friday, Joe Gibbs Racing cars shined throughout all 3 practice sessions in preparation for today’s 200 mile race. Our early forums pick Erik Jones was fastest in the first two practice sessions and finished 2nd in the final session. Meanwhile both teammates Kyle Busch and Daniel Suarez looked strong as well. The #19 and #18 cars looked really good in the final two practices. Obviously practice speeds are not the most ideal factor for handicapping a race but it was hard to ignore the speed from the JGR camp. If you consider the practice sessions along with the Kyle Busch factor, this could be another day where Rowdy dominates at the front of the field. Busch was really strong in race trim and only Erik Jones could post similar times after several laps.
Therefore this race could easily be a JGR pageant show at the front of the field barring any crazy incidents. Brad Keselowski would be your best option for a potential spoiler. Keselowski drove the #22 Discount Tire machine to victory lane at Phoenix back in November of 2014 and posted a runner-up finish in this race last year. Keselowski is normally a threat in these Xfinity Series races and had a solid practice session late Friday to increase his value. However, I am still hesitant to back the #22 just for how far that team has been off over the last few weeks. Keselowski finished 6th at Atlanta and struggled throughout the day last week at Las Vegas for a 15th place showing. I think this car will be better this week away from the 1.5 mile setup but I am not sure if it will be enough for a victory.
A few other drivers that could potentially challenge for real estate at the front of the field include the Dillon brothers and Chase Elliot are a few obvious choices. I thought the younger Dillon looked pretty solid in practice while the #88 and #2 cars struggled a bit more than expected. Ty Dillon actually has the best average finish (6.25) of all drivers with at least 4 starts that are participating this afternoon and he actually jumped ahead of the JGR cars to finish P1 in final practice yesterday as well. Austin Dillon finished 2nd and 5th in last year’s Xfinity Series races. The elder Dillon has actually finished 6th or better in his last 6 starts despite not having a win. Therefore Austin definitely knows how to race at PIR and despite a shaky practice on Friday, I would still expect him to run strong today.
A pair of other guys that I would like to make mention of that I expect to have a good afternoon include the #33 and #7 cars of Brandon Jones and Justin Allgaier. Neither Jones nor Allgaier should be considered as potential winners but both should bring some value if you can find them in lower tier matchups. I am a big fan of Jones talent and he has proved early this year that he can produce quality runs. Allgaier may be a bit of a surprise as he is not a name that gets mentioned very often. However, the #7 surprised me with speed in the late practices on Friday and he has posted quality Phoenix finishes in the past with Penske Racing. We know he is in good equipment with JR Motorsports and I expect Allgaier to be one of the surprise stories inside the top 10 all afternoon.
2016 Axalta 200 Race Picks
Erik Jones +650 (2 units): early forums pick, fastest in first two practices, best 10 lap average, got his first career win in the Truck Series at Phoenix
H2H Matchups
Austin Dillon +165 over Brad Keselowski (1 unit)
