2016 AutoLotto 200 Race Predictions

2016 AutoLotto 200 Race Predictions
NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Saturday July 16th, 4:16PM (EST) at New Hampshire Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

The Xfinity Series takes center stage this afternoon in Loudon with the running of the AutoLotto 200 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Last week Kyle Busch dominated the action in Kentucky by leading 185 of the 201 scheduled laps in the Alsco 300 to score his 5th Xfinity Series victory of the season. Today Rowdy returns to Loudon and the site where he has hoisted the trophy in 4 of the last 7 events. Find out if we think Rowdy will score his 6th victory of the season or if another driver is poised to steal the spotlight as we present our 2016 AutoLotto 200 race predictions!

Today’s race will feature many of the same competitors that participated last week at Kentucky. Sprint Cup Series drivers Austin Dillon and Brad Keselowski will be back in action with the rest of the Xfinity Series regulars. Keselowski has actually won 2 of the last 4 Xfinity Series races at New Hampshire driving the #22 for Team Penske. However, one of the main storylines this season has been the decline of that same #22 team. Last year the #22 team had 4 wins at this point in the season between Keselowski and Joey Logano. This year the #22 team is winless and they have even failed to lead laps in the majority of the races run this season. Therefore while Keselowski is typically strong in Loudon, I am not sure anyone can back the #22 group until they prove they can run upfront on a more consistent basis.

On Friday, Keselowski posted a rather mediocre practice which just strengthens that particular argument. In regards to Friday’s practices, it was not to anyone’s surprise that the JGR cars looked strong yet again. Busch was the fastest of the group on speed posting the best 10 lap average in Happy Hour. Daniel Suarez was not too far off of Busch’s pace as he continues to impress from week to week. Erik Jones was actually down the speed charts to a degree which was rather slightly surprising. Jones is typically one of the fastest guys in the field but he struggled a bit on Friday. Tomorrow’s AutoLotto 200 will be Jones first official start in Loudon and I think the lack of experience at New Hampshire was evident in Friday’s practices for the driver of the #20 machine.

As a result, I really believe that Busch is the guy to beat by a pretty large margin. Austin Dillon is probably the next closest in terms of speed but the #18 has a pretty large gap on the field. New Hampshire is not a place that typically fields surprise winners unless fuel mileage comes into play. Therefore, I think this race will be pretty foreseeable towards the front. Dillon posted the 2nd best 10 lap average behind Busch and he has a really solid resume in Loudon. If something happens to the #18, Dillon will be one of the next biggest threats for the win and he is currently receiving rather generous odds. If you are looking for a few dark horses, I believe Ty Dillon will be a good choice. I had the younger Dillon on my dark horse list last week and he brought home a decent 7th place finish. However, I believe the #3 team has an even better car for today’s race and should bring value again in H2H situations.

Another team that appeared to nail the setup, off the hauler, included the #48 of Brennan Poole. Poole was fastest in practice 1 and was also fast on longer runs in Happy Hour. Therefore, if you can find a match-up that involves the #48 then he may be worth adding to your final lineup. Also, just remember that starting position is usually very important in Loudon. Track position is very important throughout races at New Hampshire because of the degree of difficulty that involves passing at this flat 1 mile oval. The last 4 race winners have all started from the pole position and there has only been 1 driver to win from outside of the top 10 starting spots in the last 17 races in Loudon. Therefore, keep those things in mind once qualifying takes place later this afternoon!

2016 AutoLotto 200 Race Predictions

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Austin Dillon +750 (1.5 units): finished 3rd or better in last 3 starts in Loudon, looked to be the best car behind the #18 on Friday

Two Team Parlay

Kyle Busch -155 wins AutoLotto 200
Team 2 – Open for New Hampshire 301
Risking 2.5 units to win: TBD

H2H Matchups

Brennan Poole -135 over Brandon Jones (3 units)
Ty Dillon -120 over Justin Allgaier (2 units)
Daniel Suarez +125 over Erik Jones (1 unit)