2016 Auto Club 400 Race Predictions

2016 Auto Club 400 Race Predictions
NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Fantasy Preview
Sunday March 20th, 3:47PM (EST) at Auto Club Speedway in Fontana
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

The 5th race of the season will take place this afternoon when the engines fire in Fontana with the running of the Auto Club 400 at Auto Club Speedway. So far we have had 4 different race winners through the first 4 races of the season. With 200 scheduled laps of racing on the books, we question if we will see a 5th different winner this afternoon? The 2015 version of the Auto Club 400 was one of the best races of the year and if we account the finish of yesterday’s Xfinity Series race into the equation then we should be in for an exciting afternoon of racing. Take a look as we provide our 2016 Auto Club 400 race predictions!

One thing to keep in mind for today’s race is that Auto Club Speedway should not be confused with your 1.5 mile cookie cutter tracks. I know a lot of people subconsciously relate Auto Club Speedway to other 1.5 mile ovals. On the contrary, Fontana is a bigger 2 mile oval that bears a lot of similarities to Michigan in size and shape. However, the surfaces between Michigan and Auto Club Speedway are completely different. Michigan International Speedway was recently repaved in 2012 and it has a lot of grip with little tire fall off. Auto Club Speedway is nearly the opposite due to the track’s aged and rugged surface. In some comparisons, Auto Club Speedway’s surface is turning into a bigger Atlanta except the fall off in speed is not quite as steep. However, you will see drivers searching around for grip and constantly asking for changes from the pit crew as the race track transitions over the course of 400 miles.

However despite the track’s size and seemingly unpredictability, Auto Club Speedway has actually been dominated by just a handful of drivers in recent years. The last 16 races have been won by just 7 drivers whom are all participating this afternoon. Jimmie Johnson leads all drivers with 5 Fontana victories while both Kyle Busch and Matt Kenseth are tied for 2nd with 3 wins each. One of the biggest favorites for today’s event includes the #18 of Kyle Busch. Rowdy has captured wins in his last two starts in Fontana and finished no worse than 3rd in his last 4 starts. Busch paced the competition in practice 2 by laying down the fastest 10 lap average. If you combine his resume at Auto Club Speedway and the way that team is running, he should be one of the frontrunners for the win today.

A couple of other guys that have to be at the top of your list this afternoon are Jimmie Johnson and Kevin Harvick. We already mentioned that Johnson is the all-time leader for wins at Auto Club Speedway and his 6.76 average finishing position over 21 races makes him an instant fantasy starter. Johnson and the #48 team have been solid throughout practices and I expect another good run this afternoon. For Kevin Harvick, we have learned to always expect the #4 car to contend. Last week’s Phoenix winner has a Fontana win to his credit coming back in 2011 and was really solid in Saturday’s two practice sessions. If you consider how this track has little grip and tires will be a big factor, I really like Harvick’s driving style for Fontana as well.

If you want to throw in a few names that really stood out in practice, I would put the #78 and #3 cars at the top of the list. Austin Dillon put the #3 car on the pole for today’s race and has looked very impressive throughout every stage of the weekend. Dillon is having a great sophomore season and his 5th place run at Las Vegas increases his chances for another impressive outing this afternoon. Martin Truex Jr is a name that grabbed a lot of attention in practice as well. The #78 was really strong in race trim with the 2nd best 10 lap average in practice 2 and the fastest 10 lap average in happy hour. However, I would quickly point out the fact that Truex has never posted a mere top 5 finish in 15 career starts at Auto Club Speedway. His best finish is 6th twice back in 2007 and 2008. I place a great deal of importance on past track performance when handicapping at a place like Fontana so keep those things in mind when considering sheer practice speeds.

When taking into everything into perspective, I think Carl Edwards is one of the best sleeper picks this afternoon to challenge the #18, #4, and #48. Edwards nearly pulled of the last lap pass for the win last week over Kevin Harvick after taking on tires with the last pit stop. Though he ended up just a few inches short, the #19 team is arguably running better than anyone this season with 3 top 5’s through the first 4 races. Edwards was the fastest car in practice 2 and finished P2 in happy hour. He was happy with the race car and I think he has as good of a chance as anyone to score a victory this afternoon.

A few other sleeper picks that you could find some value in for H2H or fantasy purposes include the #21 of Ryan Blaney and #42 of Kyle Larson. Blaney has been really fast in practices in recent weeks and the team put together a solid 6th place effort at Las Vegas which has some similarities towards Fontana. The #21 come on strong in happy hour and they could be in line for another strong run. Kyle Larson has not had a great start to 2016 but Auto Club Speedway could be just the place to turn things around. After finishes of 24th, 36th, and 12th in the last 3 races, the #42 team needs a good outing. Fortunately, Auto Club Speedway is one of Larson’s favorite tracks and he posted a runner-up finish in 2014 as a rookie. I know the team has been working to find speed and I know that Saturday’s practices were rather lackluster. However, I still think Larson will be able to drive the #42 towards the front from his 32nd place starting position.

2016 Auto Club 400 Race Picks

Jimmie Johnson +850(1.25 units): 5 time Fontana winner, won at Atlanta and 3rd at LVMS on similar surfaces, expect to be strong during 2nd half of race

Kurt Busch +1300 (1 unit): early forums pick, 2003 winner, has finished 3rd in last two years in the Auto Club 400, struggled a bit thus far this weekend and looking to rebound
Austin Dillon +2000 (.5 unit): cover play, getting better each week, has had best car throughout the weekend, starting from pole

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