2016 Aspen Dental Eldora Dirt Derby Race Predictions

2016 Aspen Dental Eldora Dirt Derby Race Predictions
NASCAR Camping World Truck Series Betting Preview
Wednesday July 20th, 9:16PM (EST) at Eldora Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

Tonight the Camping World Truck Series will participate in one of the most intriguing and exciting races of the season when the green flag is waved for the Aspen Dental Eldora Dirt Derby. For one night only, NASCAR will return to its roots and dial back the hands in time with short track racing on dirt. For the fans, this race mirrors what you would typically see at your local dirt track with qualifying, heat races, and a final main event to cap off the evening. For drivers, this will be an opportunity to shine on a similar surface that spawned most of the talent that we see in NASCAR today. Get ready as we give our full preview for dirt racing at Eldora as we provide our 2016 Aspen Dental Eldora Dirt Derby Race Predictions!

Tonight’s race will officially mark the 4th Truck Series race on dirt since the inaugural MudSummer Classic that was won by Austin Dillon in 2013. The sponsor name may have changed since that time but the racing will look very similar as trucks will be spread from the very bottom groove to right up against the wall once the green flag waves later tonight. As we have seen in previous years, there are a lot of unknown names that are participating for their chance to shine at Eldora. Most of those guys have strong dirt track resumes and are looking for the opportunity to make their names known. Among the most notable names that will be making their first starts of the season tonight, include the likes of Bobby Pierce, Stewart Friesen, Norm Benning, Ken Schrader, and others.

However the bad news for those drivers making their first starts tonight, is the fact that the Truck Series regulars have really dominated all the prior races at Eldora. All 3 prior races have been won by either Sprint Cup or Truck Series drivers. Bobby Pierce did come close last year with a runner-up finish to Christopher Bell. However, the “regulars” have for the most part dominated these races which I guess should not be too surprising. Most of those drivers are in better equipment and for the most part they are the upper echelon of talent. If you are looking for a few longshots to gamble on tonight, I do think Pierce is the best of the guys making their first start. Also, Stewart Friesen may be another driver that could run potentially well.

While there are many uncertainties for tonight’s race, one thing that you can count on is that Kyle Larson will be a factor when the dirt starts flying tonight. The young Sprint Cup Series standout is one of the best raw driving talents in NASCAR and he has a decorated resume on dirt. If you remember, Larson nearly won the inaugural Eldora race in 2013. He literally beat the right rear spoiler and quarter panel off the car by bouncing it against the wall every lap as he tried to reel in Austin Dillon in the closing laps. It was an amazing display of driving talent and while Larson come up short; that glimpse of his sheer driving talent still resonates. Larson posted the fastest 10 lap average in either of Tuesday’s practices and he will clearly be one of the guys to beat when the green flag waves.

Another guy that has a strong dirt background that should get everyone’s attention tonight is Rico Abreu. The Truck Series rookie has an impressive dirt series resume that includes a win in this year’s Chili Bowl Nationals and an impressive resume at Eldora nevertheless. Abreu has won in the USAC series at Eldora, he has a 2014 All Star Circuit of Champions win, and several other quality finishes at the famous dirt track. In fact, Abreu finished 2nd to Donny Schatz in the King’s Royal World of Outlaw event last Saturday at Eldora. Abreu backed up his strong resume by posting the fastest 10 lap average in final practice on Friday and he was in the top 5 in nearly every statistical category on speed. Expect the #98 to have a really good chance for the victory this evening!

Another driver that is definitely going to be a factor is Christopher Bell. Bell is the defending winner of this race and he has really performed well all season including his victory at Gateway a few weeks ago. We know from an equipment standpoint that the KBM trucks are the best in the series and that is a deadly combination with Bell’s ability on dirt. I would actually list Bell as the overall favorite with Larson if I had to rank the field followed by Abreu in a close 3rd. I feel like the winner should be one of those 3 drivers. However, anything can happen on dirt especially over the course of heat races and then the main event. Track position will be important and if a driver finds trouble they may not be able to make up for it like they could at other tracks.

Tonight’s race format will consist of qualifying followed by 5 heat races (determined by qualifying speed). The top 5 drivers from each heat race will advance to the main event. After the 5 heat races, there will be a last-chance qualifying race consisting of 15 laps. The top two finishers in the last-chance qualifying race will advance. Positions 28-32 will be determined by the highest ranking trucks in terms of owner points that are not already locked into the main event. The night will be capped off by a 150 lap main event that is divided into 3 segments of 40, 50, and 60 with competition cautions at lap 40 and 90.

2016 Aspen Dental Eldora Dirt Derby Race Predictions

Want to bet on tonight’s dirt track race at Eldora? Get the best odds and immediate access with 5 Dimes

*More race predictions may be posted closer to race time

Christopher Bell +450 (1.5 units): defending winner, fastest in final practice, 2nd best 10 lap average on Tuesday
Bobby Pierce +575 (1.5 units unit): runner-up last year, won heat race #1 and will be starting P1 in the main
Matt Crafton +2000 (.5 unit): finished in top 10 in all 3 Eldora races, not the best on dirt, but fast times on Tuesday means he should be around the front
John Hunter Nemechek +3300 (.5 unit): finished no worse than 7th in his two prior Eldora starts, has typically been strong on short tracks, will race better than his practices indicate, receiving very generous odds

H2H Matchups

Christopher Bell -140 over Tyler Reddick (3 units)
John Hunter Nemechek -115 over Ken Schrader (2 units)
Bobby Pierce -110 over Tyler Reddick (2 units)